US vs China War?

[Jacob]

With the ongoing breakdown in trading relations between the US and China, with the increasingly aggressive rhetoric between the two sides, with China's continued messaging about forced unification with Taiwan, and with the potential need to distract from domestic troubles (and/ or political opposition) with a bit of jingoistic conflict - how likely do you think we'll see a war between the US and China in the next little while? And how soon?

[HVC]

Voted proxy war. Losing to Taiwan would cost way to much face to risk I think (hope).

[Admiral Yi]

Good chance of warning shots and "accidental ramming" type stuff in the Spratleys.  The US and the Phillipines have signed a mutual defense treaty 

I assess the probability of China launching a non-phony invasion of Taiwan as low (10%? 5%) within the next 20 years.  If that were to happen I think the US will stand down.

[Jacob]

Good chance of warning shots and "accidental ramming" type stuff in the Spratleys.  The US and the Phillipines have signed a mutual defense treaty 

I assess the probability of China launching a non-phony invasion of Taiwan as low (10%? 5%) within the next 20 years.  If that were to happen I think the US will stand down.

Interesting. So you think the US is not going to support Taiwan, but that China is still to worried about the consequences in case they do that China won't pull the trigger?

Basically both sides think such a war is going to be too destructive, so China won't attack, but if they do the US won't fight?

[Admiral Yi]

Basically both sides think such a war is going to be too destructive, so China won't attack, but if they do the US won't fight?

Yeah.

[Razgovory]

I think the Chinese will create a crisis by blockading the island and Trump will accede to Chinese demands in return for a trade deal.

[Sheilbh]

My understanding was the working estimate in Biden's administration was the second half of the 2020s, a lot of talk about 2027-8.

I believe part of that urgency is that climate change will make Taiwan more challenging to invade. But I think the bigger thing is that from the CCP's perspective I think it's unfinished business and it is the historic objective of the party to unite China to both end the risk of separatism and finally win the civil war. I think that's a destiny that Xi feels personally, I don't think it's like Putin where I think only Putin would invade Ukraine. I think any CCP leader at this point would be looking to force unification but I think Xi identifies with it as part of his "project"/"mission" (and, perhaps, it's necessary to justify historically his move to something resembling cult of personality).

From everything I've read China are taking the steps you would expect for a state intending to force this issue especially around stockpiling, building alternative (domestic) supply chains etc. A limitation here, from what I've read, is that China's industry appears to have been less advanced than party leaders expected were told. I also think the recent anti-corruption purge in the PLA is in line with this - from what I've read the first purge when Xi came to power was primarily removing Hu and Jiang men and about consolidating power, this one is targeting Xi appointees and seems focused on a more fighting fit military (notably very few officers in operational positions have been caught up - though they also have less opportunity for graft than political work or procurement). But it also points to a lack of trust in civil-military relations which has always been an issue within the PRC (such as their key role in Deng's rise to power). Plus see the massive recent exercises, particularly provocative behaviour around Australia etc - it seems that China's military is increasing its preparedness fairly steadily. 

I have no idea but my guess is they'll try to coerce Taiwan first by a blockade or something similar rather than a full-scale invasion. But I think if need be they'd be willing to invade.

I don't know on the US angle. I think Trump genuinely doesn't want to send significant forces anywhere in significant prolonged conflicts and certainly not against other "big" powers. The US doesn't have a security commitment to Taiwan - a piece of strategic ambiguity that I think is as ambiguous within the US state as outside it. My instinct would be that Trump would threaten on social media to impose tariffs and sanctions "TO DESTROY YOUR ECONOMY" - as he has to Putin and Erdogan in the past. But I think he would come under sustained pressure politically for a more foreceful response.

Honestly I think the risk of a US-China war is lower now than it was under Biden (or a second Biden term - I'm less sure on Harris) because I think the US is far more likely to not do anything for Taiwan.

[Grey Fox]

China can't invade the USA. Trump's America will have no interest in defending anything outside the Americas.

Xi can try to take Taiwan and hope the war gods don't kill too many of his plans.

[The Minsky Moment]

Honestly I think the risk of a US-China war is lower now than it was under Biden (or a second Biden term - I'm less sure on Harris) because I think the US is far more likely to not do anything for Taiwan.

This.
And that is why an invasion of Taiwan is likely by 2028.
Also because Trump's trade policy increases the perceived value of controlling Taiwanese resources and decreases marginal cost of sanctions and fallout.

Basically Trump has tipped the risk/reward calculation by increasing rewards and decreasing risks.

[viper37]

With the ongoing breakdown in trading relations between the US and China, with the increasingly aggressive rhetoric between the two sides, with China's continued messaging about forced unification with Taiwan, and with the potential need to distract from domestic troubles (and/ or political opposition) with a bit of jingoistic conflict - how likely do you think we'll see a war between the US and China in the next little while? And how soon?

Before the end of 2028.

Trump needs an excuse to remain in power and China isn't ready yet.

China has nothing to lose by going to war.  They couldn't take on NATO alone, they couldn't take one NATO+South Korea and suffer the risk of losing most of Asia to their economy.

Militarily speaking, no one is going to help the US, even if China strike the first blow, which they won't.  They'll provoke the clown into attacking first, just to make sure he can't invoke article 5, assuming NATO still officially stands.

Economically speaking, they're dumping all their US bonds and they've diversified their economy enough to be relatively isolated from US isolation.  With their new trade pact signed with South Korea and Japan, they'll be doing ok.  Vietnam will turn toward China instead of looking to the US.

Taiwan will have to look to itself for defense.  As we have seen with HK, there's no compromise with China.

Having Taiwan under the umbrella of China will spell doom for our advanced technology.  TSMC was having trouble with workers - engineers in its US plants, that's why they had to be subsidized to come to the US.  The American engineers needed extensive training in Taiwan to be able to work there.  That kind of technological knowledge has disappeared from occidental countries.  Intel is way, way, way behind and TSMC was supposed to rescue their foundry operation.

AMD and Nvidia rely on TSMC.  Afaik, nearly all of our defense industry rely on Taiwan.

Most of Americans, including many Democrats don't realize how they're fucked.

They believe they have a powerful military because they have carriers, submarines and lots of aircrafts.  They think it's like WWII, you just need workers and steel, with very little electronics.

China was contained in 2016 when Obama left.  Trump gave them a reprieve, Biden tried a comeback, now it's the fall of Roman Empire.  

Stillicho and Flavius Aetius have been slain.  Britain has been told to look to its own defense.  The Visigoths auxiliaries and their families fighting for Rome are being killed.

The Huns and the Ostrogoths are coming but there's no one mobilizing the army to meet them.

[viper37]

Honestly I think the risk of a US-China war is lower now than it was under Biden (or a second Biden term - I'm less sure on Harris) because I think the US is far more likely to not do anything for Taiwan.

This.
And that is why an invasion of Taiwan is likely by 2028.
Also because Trump's trade policy increases the perceived value of controlling Taiwanese resources and decreases marginal cost of sanctions and fallout.

Basically Trump has tipped the risk/reward calculation by increasing rewards and decreasing risks.

Once China has Taiwan, they aren't likely to stop there.

First, we'll be price gauged for any advanced tech coming from Taiwan.

Second, China is already mostly on par with western tech in many area.  Once it has Taiwan, it takes a lead we can't catch.

Either we submit, or we resist.

[Josquius]

I do think the Chinese aren't stupid enough to invade Taiwan.
Even excluding us involvement this isn't a guaranteed win for them. Ukraine showed navies are more fragile than ever.
But...we shall see.

Agreed if it does happen the chance of the  US getting involved is at a low point under Trump.

This.
And that is why an invasion of Taiwan is likely by 2028.
Also because Trump's trade policy increases the perceived value of controlling Taiwanese resources and decreases marginal cost of sanctions and fallout.

Once China has Taiwan, they aren't likely to stop there.

First, we'll be price gauged for any advanced tech coming from Taiwan.

Second, China is already mostly on par with western tech in many area.  Once it has Taiwan, it takes a lead we can't catch.

Either we submit, or we resist.

It's pretty widely reported Taiwan has a self destruct plan for its chip business if China invades.
Which is terrible for the global economy but does mean China wouldn't be gaining that.

Definitely China won't stop however. They have their sights on the second island chain.

[Threviel]

Any treaty with the US is not worth the paper it's written on. The Asian powers are on their own against China.

I don't necessarily think it's in the interest of a rational China to invade Taiwan. It'll be a harsh blow economically however the war goes and the economy is already showing signs of the coming demographic collapse. Far better to have RoC as a possible enemy that can be used to distract the population if need be.

[Zoupa]

I'm hoping the Taiwanese are investing in FPV drones like crazy. Disable the landing crafts and they can survive.

[crazy canuck]

Any treaty with the US is not worth the paper it's written on. The Asian powers are on their own against China.

I don't necessarily think it's in the interest of a rational China to invade Taiwan. It'll be a harsh blow economically however the war goes and the economy is already showing signs of the coming demographic collapse. Far better to have RoC as a possible enemy that can be used to distract the population if need be.

Why would there be a harsh economic blow?  What are the Americans going to do? Impose tariffs?