The Trump administration accidentally texted its War Plans to a journalist

[Syt]

Full chat log: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/signal-group-chat-attack-plans-hegseth-goldberg/682176/

Use https://www.removepaywall.com/ if link doesn't work for you.

[Syt]

Also, fuck JD Vance.



[...]

[mongers]

Also, fuck JD Vance.

... snip ...

The only bright spot is who possibly wanted this chat to leak? That and talk of OPSEC is mentioned, so maybe the journalist was added intentionally or the person who did that was mislead by another into doing it.

So the possible bright spot is that it could show just how badly riven the 'administration' is? 

And that's were my rational largely fails, because it's premise is the 'administration' could collapse into in-fighting without too many bad effect, but the likely larger downside is it could crater with even more disastrous effects than what we're currently seeing in it's day to day operation?

[viper37]

Funny they accuse Europe when the Houthis situation is one created by Trump when he reneged on Obama's deal with Iran in his first mandate.

Iran is now a huge problem, there's a proxy war in Yemen between Saudi Arabia and Iran because of Trump's and Israel's policies.  Now there's a fallout.

Without Iran and Russian weapons, it would be much less of a threat in this area.  There would be regular inspections to Iran's nuclear facilities, which would have provided excellent cover for CIA operations.  Relations would be tense, cold war style, but maybe not aggressive like now.

This is what happens when you have incompetent morons directing the biggest military force in the world.

[dist]

Full chat log: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/signal-group-chat-attack-plans-hegseth-goldberg/682176/

Use https://www.removepaywall.com/ if link doesn't work for you.

I had already provided the full article and link a few messages prior.

The only bright spot is who possibly wanted this chat to leak? That and talk of OPSEC is mentioned, so maybe the journalist was added intentionally or the person who did that was mislead by another into doing it.

Goldberg mentioned in his first article that he had been added by "Michael Waltz".

And that's were my rational largely fails, because it's premise is the 'administration' could collapse into in-fighting without too many bad effect, but the likely larger downside is it could crater with even more disastrous effects than what we're currently seeing in it's day to day operation?

Nah, nothing will come out of this. Maybe someone will get shafted if it goes too far, but the situation is too hyper-polarized for anything major to happen. The right half of the country won't give a fuck, like they didn't about everything else. If politically this kind of mishaps have no price, there won't be any pressure to make a change or for in-fighting.

[crazy canuck]

Agreed. Unfortunately it is going to take a tragedy caused by this sort of blundering before people on the right will care enough for changes to be made.

[Caliga]

Right, the response on the right will just be "BUTBUTBUTBUT Hillary's email server!!!!!!111111 Hunter Biden Hunter BidenHunterBiden *froth*"

[Syt]

Full chat log: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/signal-group-chat-attack-plans-hegseth-goldberg/682176/

Use https://www.removepaywall.com/ if link doesn't work for you.

I had already provided the full article and link a few messages prior.

Oops.

[Syt]

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, but we all don't hold the lives of others in our hands.

[viper37]

The meme-o-sphere is delighted at this incident.  From WWII to Star Wars, they're having a field day.

[Sheilbh]

Funny they accuse Europe when the Houthis situation is one created by Trump when he reneged on Obama's deal with Iran in his first mandate.

Iran is now a huge problem, there's a proxy war in Yemen between Saudi Arabia and Iran because of Trump's and Israel's policies.  Now there's a fallout.

Maybe. I'm not sure you can really pin this on Trump. The Houthis have been around for ages. They took the capital over 10 years ago (and were pushed back). The incredibly bloody Saudi intervention in Yemen started then but Saudi was already involved - as was Iran - in the Yemeni civil war. Obama was regularly attacked from the left for the support given to Saudi in their war.

What's really striking about Iran is the extent to which so far they have actually been a bit of a paper tiger. They've taken a lot of hits. Even the strike on Saudi oil fields which I think the Houthis claimed but investigators actually think was Iran was a surprise - Trump didn't really respond. It's recognisable but I've read this was a profound shock to the Saudis  who thought the American security guarantee would definitely kick in over attacks of oil infrastructure - not all, but a lot of recent Saudi policy is driven by the fact they feel they can't rely on the Americans and need to stand alone.

I also think we underestimate the agency of the Houthis here at our peril. They've got Iranian support and help doing this, but I don't think they're just an extension of Iran doing this in response to the war in Gaza has been a huge propaganda coup.

On the Europe stuff - the UK (and others like Denmark) did participate in the US operations against the Houthis in recent years and would probably do so again if asked. That might be better than "billing" Europe (but strikingly not Saudi, India etc).

They're obnoxious etc. But this is an example of where talk of European self-defence or America as an adversary meets the road of European capabilities right now because there was an EU coordinated naval mission to support the re-opening of the Red Sea and Suez. Over nine months it never exceeded three ships and the Greek contribution was made up of vessels that were over 25 years old and did not have sufficient technology to track or intercept some of the Houthi attacks. Although worth noting the Greek contribution was the third or fourth biggest behind only Italy and France. And it's true that the Red Sea is vastly more vital to European trade (particularly with China) than America. That's where we are now, it will take time to get to a position where European states are capable of defending key European strategic interests (which goes beyond just Ukraine and just Russia - it includes the Med and all of the MENA region). European leaders need to work out how they manage that vulnerability while building up - if they don't build up, or they ignore the vulnerablity and assume we're already fine then I think there could be some serious problems.

Also I've said it before but I think Vance is PM at this point. That first message is basically working towards Trump - here's what Trump says (with some very mild criticism) and it's Vance shaping the policy of what Trump wants/means. It's an extraordinary role for a VP - but I think this gets to my view that Trump is unchanged from his first term. He's chaotic (and likes the drama), he's got no focus, he only cares about loyalty - the difference is there's a cadre of smart, ideologically committed people the rung below who think they've worked out how to "drive" Trump or use Trump to drive their agenda (and I think they might have worked it out). They still have to deal with the 2am tweets careering in a new direction but no doubt that's a price worth paying for them.

[Zanza]

In this world of deals, Khamenei might be cheaper to buy off than Trump. That's how this works in the Trumpian order of things, no?

[Sheilbh]

I wouldn't underestimate Houthi agency - so the question may be how much are European countries (perhaps especially Germany where Israel is a "staatsrason") willing to sell out Israel? And I suspect the answer is not that much.

[fromtia]

They're obnoxious etc. But this is an example of where talk of European self-defence or America as an adversary meets the road of European capabilities

Yeah strongly agree, Europeans have started going in the right direction but lets get that Euro defense capability as robust as possible as quickly as possible. The "free loader" discourse isn't completely without merit.