The Big Picture - Where's the world going?

[Jacob]

We're all here, more or less, because we've played (and continue to play?) grand strategy games, and we have a long history of talking history and geo-politics.

Right now it seems we are at a crisis point - or rather a convergence of several crisis points.

What do we think is going to happen? What are likely scenarios to play out in a big picture scale in the next 5-10-20 years? Where are we going, and what are the likely inflection points that could drastically change the direction?

[mongers]

We're all here, more or less, because we've played (and continue to play?) grand strategy games, and we have a long history of talking history and geo-politics.

Right now it seems we are at a crisis point - or rather a convergence of several crisis points.

What do we think is going to happen? What are likely scenarios to play out in a big picture scale in the next 5-10-20 years? Where are we going, and what are the likely inflection points that could drastically change the direction?

Who knows?

I certainly don't, shall probably withdraw from the wider political BS world and concentrate on other stuff.

I honestly don't think there's much point looking at the 10 or 20 year timeframe.

I was thinking of starting, what would now be a companion thread to yours Jacob, called something along the lines of:

"The End of Days, what do you intend to do with your remaining time on Earth?"
 

[PJL]

I definitely get the feeling of 'the avalanche has already started, it's too late for the pebbles to vote' vibes right now geopolitically. We're in the post-post Cold War era, which does have a decidedly 19th century feel. The fight of the big ideologies of the 20th century from 1919-1991 are long gone.

[Grey Fox]

The big 3 Nuclear powers are now autocratic countries bent on imperial dominance. The liberal democratic model is in deep trouble. The most healthiest democracy with actual nuclear power is France followed by India.

Millions of people are about to die in imperialistic wars. Good job, America.

It's going to be quite interesting learning to make IED to blow American occupation forces up.

[Jacob]

We're all here, more or less, because we've played (and continue to play?) grand strategy games, and we have a long history of talking history and geo-politics.

Right now it seems we are at a crisis point - or rather a convergence of several crisis points.

What do we think is going to happen? What are likely scenarios to play out in a big picture scale in the next 5-10-20 years? Where are we going, and what are the likely inflection points that could drastically change the direction?

Who knows?

I certainly don't, shall probably withdraw from the wider political BS world and concentrate on other stuff.

I honestly don't think there's much point looking at the 10 or 20 year timeframe.

I was thinking of starting, what would now be a companion thread to yours Jacob, called something along the lines of:

"The End of Days, what do you intend to do with your remaining time on Earth?"
 

That's how I made it through the preceding Trump term. "This too shall pass". But right at this moment, I don't want to withdraw - you know the whole "for evil to win all it requires is for good people to do nothing" type reasoning. Basically, I think we're being flooded with bad news as a strategy to wear us down, and I'm not quite ready to give up yet. Also a bunch of this stuff strikes a whole lot closer to home now. It very much seems like it's coming right at me, whether or not I stick my head in the sand.

(Though I do intend to enjoy my remaining time on earth as much as possible also)

[Richard Hakluyt]

I feel fine for myself but feel sorry for younger people. When I think about the future of my younger son, 23 and profoundly mentally disabled, I am plunged into existential despair 

[mongers]

I feel fine for myself but feel sorry for younger people. When I think about the future of my younger son, 23 and profoundly mentally disabled, I am plunged into existential despair 

Yeah I have that too, so many old people* are fucking nuts, they just want to tear down the world around them, rather than come to the benign understanding that the world has to belong to the young.

[Jacob]

The big 3 Nuclear powers are now autocratic countries bent on imperial dominance. The liberal democratic model is in deep trouble. The most healthiest democracy with actual nuclear power is France followed by India.

Millions of people are about to die in imperialistic wars. Good job, America.

Yeah... so... I don't think the battle is lost in the US yet. There's definitely a trajectory where Trumpist-Elonism becomes entrenched in the US and we'll head for a world dominated by three autocratic imperialist powers (very 1984). But I think there's also a scenario in which Trump and his various Fascist enablers overplay their hand before they grind down American institutions to Russian - or even Hungarian - levels. A lot depends, I think, on how much the Trump administration continues to generate chaos and economic damage.

For the EU they're as always slow walking it. But it's another crisis point. In how many places will Orban-likes gain power and entrench themselves? Will it be enough to cripple Europe or will they rise to the occasion?

China has got to be laughing right now. Sure they're autocratic imperialist bullies, but at least they're consistent. If the US continues being this erratic, China looks a lot better by comparison.

Then of course there's the impending global climate catastrophe. Just because it's become less of a political priority doesn't mean it's gone away.

[Jacob]

On the whole Yarvinist tech-bro libertarian post-national enclave, installing the likes of Musk and Thiel as "CEOs" of network states, I think they'll get completely wrecked when push comes to shove. But they'll do a lot of damage along the way.

[Grey Fox]

China must be laughing. They got so much more than anticipated when they left Tesla operate in the country.

[Tonitrus]

World events make the "I should buy a boat" retirement plan a look a bit better...moreso if it is ocean-going.

And if climate change intensifies...also have the Waterworld scenario covered.  Just need some gills.

[crazy canuck]

As GF pointed out, Liberal Democracy is over as the dominant political ideology.  What is going to replace it?  anarcho-capitalist fascism seems most likely in the short term - at least in the US.  Where do Europe and the other current Liberal Democracies become?  I don't know.  Some will likely follow the US down the fascist hole. Not sure what happens elsewhere.

The likelihood of nuclear annihilation becomes much more real again.

[Josquius]

I'm hopeful Musk will be such a disaster for the US that this taints fascism for the rest of the world. The rise of reform in the UK for instance goes into reverse.
The issue is how much damage gets done over the next 4 years.

Hyper hopium at work... Especially considering America failed to learn it's lesson last time... But could the recoil from this shit even propel the US in a positive direction.

[mongers]

I bet Malthus's aunt is kicking herself, turns out she needed to have envisaged a much darker future world.

[crazy canuck]

I'm hopeful Musk will be such a disaster for the US that this taints fascism for the rest of the world. The rise of reform in the UK for instance goes into reverse.
The issue is how much damage gets done over the next 4 years.

Hyper hopium at work... Especially considering America failed to learn it's lesson last time... But could the recoil from this shit even propel the US in a positive direction.

We are in a post truth era, so who would know that trump is disastrous.  It is all going to be a Huge win.