Young People and Politics

[Jacob]

Recent surveys show a significant growth in support for far right, anti-immigrant parties among young men in Europe:

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-young-people-right-wing-voters-far-right-politics-eu-elections-parliament/

I'm curious if folks have thoughts on the possible causes, as well as possible consequences - both long and short term.

[Jacob]

Perhaps relatedly, surveys by the Dutch health service has shown drastic declines in acceptance of homosexuality in the last few years.

In Amsterdam, 43% of young people accept homosexuality - down from 69% two years ago. In Utrecht acceptance of homosexuality fell from 71% in 2019 to 46%. In Zeeland 46% of young people thought trans people were "normal" two years ago, now that is only a quarter; with young people thinking trans people are "wrong" went from 13% to 25%.

https://www.out.tv/nieuws/minder-dan-helft-amsterdamse-jongeren-accepteert-homoseksualiteit?acceptCookies=66578e14186b3 (in Dutch, but Google translate does a good job).

Again I wonder what is the driver in this drastic change, and what the potential long term impacts are.

[crazy canuck]

What caused this?

The rise of the new far-right is not an unexpected phenomenon. Economic, social, and political affairs culminate to act as different factors, beginning in 2007 with the Great Recession. These factors can be grouped and analysed as the 'triggers' of one of the greatest insurgencies of far-right politics since the end of the Cold War.

Vital to enabling support for their social policies, economic factors form the backbone of support for the far-right. In their analysis of the far-right rise in the 21st century, Georgiadou, Rori and Roumanias find a significant correlation between economic insecurity – including high unemployment and negative GDP growth – and support for what they call the 'extreme right'.

Worsening economic conditions, particularly high unemployment, primarily fuel the social outrage that manifests as support for anti-immigration policies. The researchers found that extremist right parties amplify their opposition to immigration 'through ... feelings of economic insecurity' driven by high unemployment. I believe economic factors are necessary for the recruitment of previously apolitical working-class individuals who attribute blame for worsening conditions, high crime rates, and unemployment to immigrants. Blame is also placed on perceived 'globalism', which carries economic consequences such as the globalised import economy and social factors like increased migratory flows and multiculturalism. This allows for far-right social ideology, typically characterised by hard protectionism and nationalism, to arise.

Supporters of the Italian Social Movement (MSI) give fascist salutes in January 2024 to commemorate the anniversary of the death of two neo-fascists in 1978. (Credit: Francesco Benvenuti / AP)

The social changes that led to the rise of the reactionary 'alt-right' in the US during the 2016 Elections have recently started affecting Europe. These changes primarily involve what far-right politicians see as attacks on tradition and the 'national spirit', ranging from support for LGBTQ+ rights, environmental concerns, Islam, atheism, and family forms incompatible with the traditional European nuclear model. Most far-right party political platforms identify migration as the greatest social 'threat' to the Western national spirit, particularly the rise of Islam in historically homogeneous Christian Catholic and Orthodox societies. In Western Europe, migration has had the greatest cumulative impact on France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Austria and Sweden, where Muslim populations have grown significantly since the start of the century. The far-right denounces immigration as an ideological challenge, accusing immigrants of resisting cultural integration, thereby diluting the West's national spirit, and as a pragmatic attack on Europe, based on sweeping generalisations linking immigrants to increased crime rates.

Political Factors
Two main political factors have predominantly facilitated the mainstreaming of the far-right in European politics. The first is the prevalent disunity of left-wing opposition parties in Europe. The second is the mismanagement of the economy by neoliberal centre-right parties and the perceived lack of a possible alternative, or what Peter Mair called "The Hollowing of Western Democracy".

While the far-right's social platform is centred around opposition to the 'cultural left' (LGBTQ+, immigration, climate crisis, etc.), their political and economic targets primarily align with the right. Their most consistent political activism revolves around the state of the working class, which they perceive as neglected by traditional politicians. This is not an attack on left-wing politics; rather, it critiques the neoliberal economic order, which they believe has failed regular citizens amidst the economic and political crises that hit Europe since 2008. Except for brief periods in Germany and Greece, left-wing parties have not formed stable governments after 2010, and thus the blame for the current economy falls on the traditional centre-right and right-wing neoliberal governments in power during the 2009 crisis, which largely continue to govern Europe today.

The rise of the far right can be attributed to two main political factors. Firstly, the lack of strong opposition from the left, evident in countries with multi-party systems where the opposition vote is distributed amongst several anti-capitalist, socialist and communist parties. This fragmentation has allowed far-right parties, who can amass more concentrated support due to their smaller number, to rise as the 'defenders of the nation', and those that most staunchly oppose the status quo. Secondly, the adoption of neoliberal economics as the status quo for the modern European Union, and its continuous failure to prevent the economic crises of 2008 and 2020, combined with dying support for left-wing socialism, allowed for the far-right to gain traction as the 'alternative' route for citizens who are tired of the precarious economic conditions. This dissent manifests itself in Euroscepticism, the rise of which threatens the stability of the European Union as an economic and political project.

Finally, fascism doesn't always replace the neoliberal status quo from the outside – it can also arise through internal party transformation. The recent reshuffles of the British Conservative cabinet have led to a much more right-wing and conservative cabinet consisting of non-elected officials, all through a process mainly devoid of public input. The political blunders and extremist rhetoric of Suella Braverman as a short-lived Home Secretary are a testament to how mainstream politics can be infested with right-wing elements in plain sight.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lseupr/2024/02/06/the-creeping-ascent-of-the-far-right-in-mainstream-european-politics-and-how-to-stop-it/

[HVC]

What's youth unemployment like in Europe? I know Spain and Portuguese are bad, which inevitably leads to resentment of immigrants (ignoring the fact that immigrants often do the jobs locals don't want to do anyway).

As for the gay thing, maybe just a pendulum swing thing?

[Barrister]

Recent surveys show a significant growth in support for far right, anti-immigrant parties among young men in Europe:

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-young-people-right-wing-voters-far-right-politics-eu-elections-parliament/

I'm curious if folks have thoughts on the possible causes, as well as possible consequences - both long and short term.

I mean there's all kinds of things:

-first - there's just the rise of immigration itself, and being anti-immigrant is a kind-of natural reaction.  In Canada we've had legal immigration at record levels for several years now, whereas in Europe there've been huge waves of refugees.

-social media.  I'm just shocked at the kind of racist, anti-gay (and anti-trans) stuff I see on Twitter - and that gives a kind of permission structure to others once they know they're not alone with these kinds of views.

-nature of European politics.  When mainstream parties refuse to really even engage in issues like immigration then the far-right becomes your only option

Just off the top of my head, hardly a comprehensive thesis.

[Josquius]

The theories I've heard that make sense are around the decline in traditional male dominated jobs and rise in female dominated jobs, whilst at the same time culture remains largely the same with the traditional pressures on men to be providers and tough and all that remaining.

Iirc I posted a video about it in the youtube thread not too long ago.

[Valmy]

The theories I've heard that make sense are around the decline in traditional male dominated jobs and rise in female dominated jobs, whilst at the same time culture remains largely the same with the traditional pressures on men to be providers and tough and all that remaining.

Iirc I posted a video about it in the youtube thread not too long ago.

Huh. I was thinking male dominated trade skills seem to be doing better than ever. I think it is probably better today than ever to be a plumber or electrician.

But then other male dominated jobs like auto mechanic are getting pretty ridiculous with all the proprietary shit and the desire by the auto manufacturers to control every aspect of their vehicles making this profession increasingly inaccessible to average guys who used to do very well.

But I guess other traditionally male dominated jobs like IT, medical doctor, or lawyer are now increasingly female. But they are still good jobs yes? And men still are the majority I think, just not as dominant as before.

[Valmy]

-social media.  I'm just shocked at the kind of racist, anti-gay (and anti-trans) stuff I see on Twitter - and that gives a kind of permission structure to others once they know they're not alone with these kinds of views.

I don't know if this is a cause or effect but yeah. Nothing opens the eyes of a sheltered middle class straight white guys eyes to how racist, homophobic, and sexist society still is than social media. It is amazing. At one point I at least thought "being racist and sexist is bad, mmkay?" was something most everybody agreed on but actually...no. So yeah the "rise" of the far-right might just be because racism, sexism, and anti-LGBTQ stuff are just popular opinions. So perhaps as more centrist right wing parties dropped those opinions, others swooped in to take advantage.

[Barrister]

-social media.  I'm just shocked at the kind of racist, anti-gay (and anti-trans) stuff I see on Twitter - and that gives a kind of permission structure to others once they know they're not alone with these kinds of views.

I don't know if this is a cause or effect but yeah. Nothing opens the eyes of a sheltered middle class straight white guys eyes to how racist, homophobic, and sexist society still is than social media. It is amazing. At one point I at least thought "being racist and sexist is bad, mmkay?" was something most everybody agreed on but actually...no. So yeah the "rise" of the far-right might just be because racism, sexism, and anti-LGBTQ stuff are just popular opinions. As more centrist right wing parties dropped those opinions, other swooped in to take advantage.

It's a combination of people who once held racist/sexist/anti-gay opinions but wouldn't share them out of fear of society disapproving of such views, and other people being exposed to such views and being taught they're okay.

Also with a side of "boy who cries wolf" - of people who hold views not 100% in agreement with the latest leftist discourse being labelled as racist/sexist/etc who then go "fuck it why even bother trying".  Call it the JK Rowling effect - she made some very mild and reasonable criticisms of some trans issues, got absolutely pilloried for them, and has now gone down a fairly explicit anti-trans rabbit hole.

[HVC]

The theories I've heard that make sense are around the decline in traditional male dominated jobs and rise in female dominated jobs, whilst at the same time culture remains largely the same with the traditional pressures on men to be providers and tough and all that remaining.

Iirc I posted a video about it in the youtube thread not too long ago.

Huh. I was thinking male dominated trade skills seem to be doing better than ever. I think it is probably better today than ever to be a plumber or electrician.

But then other male dominated jobs like auto mechanic are getting pretty ridiculous with all the proprietary shit and the desire by the auto manufacturers to control every aspect of their vehicles making this profession increasingly inaccessible to average guys who used to do very well.

But I guess other traditionally male dominated jobs like IT, medical doctor, or lawyer are now increasingly female. But they are still good jobs yes? And men still are the majority I think, just not as dominant as before.

Yeah the nadir of skilled jobs training seems to be behind us. Might take a while to get the numbers needed (which means good money for trades in the meantime). The stigma of trades that started in the 80's and went to the early 2000's seems to be gone. Universities did some good PR work with the "you need higher education to succeed" mantra where people thought trades were shameful.

As for those male dominated careers you mentioned, I thought young women dominated at the mid to low levels but burned out leaving the older employees still male dominated? Is that gone now? Or am I just misinformed (possible )

[Josquius]

The theories I've heard that make sense are around the decline in traditional male dominated jobs and rise in female dominated jobs, whilst at the same time culture remains largely the same with the traditional pressures on men to be providers and tough and all that remaining.

Iirc I posted a video about it in the youtube thread not too long ago.

Huh. I was thinking male dominated trade skills seem to be doing better than ever. I think it is probably better today than ever to be a plumber or electrician.

But then other male dominated jobs like auto mechanic are getting pretty ridiculous with all the proprietary shit and the desire by the auto manufacturers to control every aspect of their vehicles making this profession increasingly inaccessible to average guys who used to do very well.

But I guess other traditionally male dominated jobs like IT, medical doctor, or lawyer are now increasingly female. But they are still good jobs yes? And men still are the majority I think, just not as dominant as before.

Think of those graphs of primary, secondary, and tertiary employment.
Back in the mid 20th century industry was the main mass employer. These days it's, what, 10%? Whilst services have taken over.
As blue collar jobs have declined, pink collar jobs have risen.
And then yes, women are increasingly daring to intrude on the higher end traditionally male dominated jobs whilst the lower end service jobs traditionally female dominated....little willingness from men to go that way .

[Barrister]

The theories I've heard that make sense are around the decline in traditional male dominated jobs and rise in female dominated jobs, whilst at the same time culture remains largely the same with the traditional pressures on men to be providers and tough and all that remaining.

Iirc I posted a video about it in the youtube thread not too long ago.

Huh. I was thinking male dominated trade skills seem to be doing better than ever. I think it is probably better today than ever to be a plumber or electrician.

But then other male dominated jobs like auto mechanic are getting pretty ridiculous with all the proprietary shit and the desire by the auto manufacturers to control every aspect of their vehicles making this profession increasingly inaccessible to average guys who used to do very well.

But I guess other traditionally male dominated jobs like IT, medical doctor, or lawyer are now increasingly female. But they are still good jobs yes? And men still are the majority I think, just not as dominant as before.

Yeah the nadir of skilled jobs training seems to be behind us. Might take a while to get the numbers needed (which means good money for trades in the meantime). The stigma of trades that started in the 80's and went to the early 2000's seems to be gone. Universities did some good PR work with the "you need higher education to succeed" mantra where people thought trades were shameful.

As for those male dominated careers you mentioned, I thought young women dominated at the mid to low levels but burned out leaving the older employees still male dominated? Is that gone now? Or am I just misinformed (possible )

I feel like IT is still fairly male-dominated, but medicine and law have definitely crossed over to being female dominated at this point.

[Valmy]

It's a combination of people who once held racist/sexist/anti-gay opinions but wouldn't share them out of fear of society disapproving of such views, and other people being exposed to such views and being taught they're okay.

Also with a side of "boy who cries wolf" - of people who hold views not 100% in agreement with the latest leftist discourse being labelled as racist/sexist/etc who then go "fuck it why even bother trying".  Call it the JK Rowling effect - she made some very mild and reasonable criticisms of some trans issues, got absolutely pilloried for them, and has now gone down a fairly explicit anti-trans rabbit hole.

Well yeah that is the other part. Social media also opens you up to very unreasonable and counter-productive puritanical views. It is very hard to get somebody who obviously has personal and emotional reactions to statements about women or trans people or whatever to have some tolerance and compassion for people working out bad ideas online or who just make stupid mistakes. Or maybe have convictions that are not perfectly aligned with theirs.

We have spoken of this type of puritanical mob justice before. It is arbitrary and counter-productive and tends to start with a minority and radicalizes others in one way or the other.

I don't like it and I am not sure what to do about it. But also as somebody who isn't personally impacted by most of these issues I feel unable to going in and say "hey! Maybe try to be cool about this issue!"

[Valmy]

I feel like IT is still fairly male-dominated, but medicine and law have definitely crossed over to being female dominated at this point.

Dominated? Doubtful but maybe that now make up a majority.

[Valmy]

Think of those graphs of primary, secondary, and tertiary employment.
Back in the mid 20th century industry was the main mass employer. These days it's, what, 10%? Whilst services have taken over.
As blue collar jobs have declined, pink collar jobs have risen.
And then yes, women are increasingly daring to intrude on the higher end traditionally male dominated jobs whilst the lower end service jobs traditionally female dominated....little willingness from men to go that way .

Yeah ok but now you are talking about things that happened 40 or 50 years ago, long before even people my age were looking for work. I don't think young men today are shocked they can't just go into the local broom factory and find a decent paying job for life as nobody since their grandparents generation (or even great-grandparents) could do that.

And most pink collar jobs are very labor intensive with terrible pay. So what? The rise of the school teacher, office staff, nursing, and maid service worker has yet to occur.