Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Valmy]

The Fuhrer is dead.  Perhaps they can be convinced lay down their arms.

Cut off one limb and two more will take its place.

Eventually. But there will be some temporary chaos that can have some advantages.

[Tamas]

The Fuhrer is dead.  Perhaps they can be convinced lay down their arms.

Cut off one limb and two more will take its place.

Eventually. But there will be some temporary chaos that can have some advantages.

Yeah. I mean, after this mayhem, when will Gazans have the means again to threaten an October 7 level of attack? 10 years, 20?

[viper37]

Yeah. I mean, after this mayhem, when will Gazans have the means again to threaten an October 7 level of attack? 10 years, 20?

There will be no more Gaza, no more West Bank and no more Palestinians in Israel in that time frame so that won't really be a problem.  They'll be cornered in a small piece of desert where they IDF will monitor them.  

There won't be any valuable land to steal anymore, so the IDF won't be operating 1000km away instead of protecting its citizens when the lion's cage is wide open.  Unless Netanyahu's successor decides to keep fighting in Lebanon.

[The Minsky Moment]

Eventually. But there will be some temporary chaos that can have some advantages.

By definition, a temporary advantage. And then what?

Almost every leader of a major anti-Israel terrorist organization got their job because Israel assassinated the guy before.  Those prior assassination caused some degradation and temporary chaos, but ultimately they did not work to Israel's advantage.  In some cases (eg Nasrallah), the result was a new leader that was more effective and vigorous.

That's not to say that Israel should refrain from targeting leadership - there are good reasons to do that.  But in itself, such kilings can only accomplish so much.

[The Minsky Moment]

Yeah. I mean, after this mayhem, when will Gazans have the means again to threaten an October 7 level of attack? 10 years, 20?

The means on Oct 7 were motorcycles and small arms. Oct 7 could happen not because of the incredible material and logistical capability Hamas could amass, but because the Israelis took their eye off the ball in Gaza. 

The belief that Gazans won't have the ability to pull of such attack for another 10-20 years is the most likely contributor to the possibility that they could.

[Admiral Yi]

The means on Oct 7 were motorcycles and small arms. Oct 7 could happen not because of the incredible material and logistical capability Hamas could amass, but because the Israelis took their eye off the ball in Gaza. 

The belief that Gazans won't have the ability to pull of such attack for another 10-20 years is the most likely contributor to the possibility that they could.

Oct 7 could happen because Hamas devised a clever way of neutralizing the Israeli defenses.