The China Thread

[Admiral Yi]

The leverage that control of rare earths grants I can see.  The case for panel production is not nearly as clear.  the case for energy *use* is baffling.

[Jacob]

If you can (economically) devote 10 times the energy (arbitrary number) to your economy (and military) than your competitors can, that seems to be a pretty big advantage in industry and manufacturing (at least the bits that are require significant energy inputs) as well as any data-related industries (AI is famously energy intensive, as is the internet).

Or did you mean something else?

[The Minsky Moment]

But at the same time, China is doing it and making genuinely astonishing progress which might be good for the world but also building in dominance in key sectors that is bad for the West and our order.

The astonishing progress needs to be put into perspective. Solar is growing fast in China but (as elsewhere) from a small base. And in the context of still growing overall energy consumption.

In 2023, coal still accounted for over 60% of energy production in China.  That share was down somewhat on the year but in absolute terms energy from coal production increased on the year. That is, all that massive investment and build out in solar still wasn't enough to absorb the entire absolute increase in energy demand, much less displace existing plant.

[The Minsky Moment]

The leverage that control of rare earths grants I can see.  The case for panel production is not nearly as clear.  the case for energy *use* is baffling.

If the US reached the stage of 25%+ of energy from solar generation, that would require a very large and steady supply just to maintain and replace existing capacity. If the sole source of panels was a single country foreign supplier, that would put the US energy infrastructure at risk. In the case of an embargo there wouldn't be enough time to replace with domestic capacity - the economic damage would be severe.

[Sheilbh]

The astonishing progress needs to be put into perspective. Solar is growing fast in China but (as elsewhere) from a small base. And in the context of still growing overall energy consumption.

In 2023, coal still accounted for over 60% of energy production in China.  That share was down somewhat on the year but in absolute terms energy from coal production increased on the year. That is, all that massive investment and build out in solar still wasn't enough to absorb the entire absolute increase in energy demand, much less displace existing plant.

Yes - and as you say coal is still growing and well over 90% of the world's new coal is China.

But at the same time they're on course to hit their 2030 targets next year. In the first quarter of this year (not according to Chinese stats but Western climate nerds studying satellite images) it looks like China has installed more new renewable capacity (mainly solar) than the rest of the world combined.

It's the rapid growth and the falling costs (especially of storage) that makes me think it could be about to kick on to a whole other level.

I think it's really important because of the impact for the rest of the world. But I think it's an example of one of the many areas when looking at China where you need to be able to hold two or three often contradictory facts or ideas (that may all be true) in your head at once - I think the same often goes for the US too.

If you can (economically) devote 10 times the energy (arbitrary number) to your economy (and military) than your competitors can, that seems to be a pretty big advantage in industry and manufacturing (at least the bits that are require significant energy inputs) as well as any data-related industries (AI is famously energy intensive, as is the internet).

Or did you mean something else?

Yeah - net zero is another industrial revolution. Adding in AI/the energy heavy uses of a data driven state - perhaps particularly China - is interesting, and I hadn't thought of it before. I think in previous industrial revolutions the countries who led the way tended to have a very strong position in the world as it was re-shaped by that revolution, I can't think of any reason why this time would be any different.

[The Minsky Moment]

I don't think China has cornered the market on any relevant solar technologies.  They dominate the production of the panels, but that is not an overly complex process compared to say high end chip fabrication.  If China wants to subsidize panel manufacturing to support domestic industry or to boost their energy transition, that's fine, but that in itself doesn't bespeak geopolitical domination.  The panels are exported enthusiastically, at least at present, so others can take advantage of cheap panels if they wish.

[Barrister]

Just because I don't trust China doesn't mean I don't think we shouldnt do something. In fact i think relying on the china's of the world is folly. Like you said While we need 3rd world nations to get on board looking to them gives the west an excuse not to do what it needs. On both sides of the coin, as in "they don't reduce emissions so us doing so isn't worth it" and "look, they're reducing emissions so we don't have to". So, from an internal policy prospective it's best to ignore them.

I've definitely heard the argument "climate change isn't real, and even if it was nothing Canada could do would change anything so why bother".

Obviously I disagree with the first part, and the second part is pure "tragedy of the commons" - but that doesn't mean that a "tragedy of the commons" isn't a very real phenomenon.