2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Zoupa]

I maintain my prediction from when it was Biden vs Trump. Harris is going to win over 300 EVs. Voting margin favouring Harris close to 10 million.

Not that it matters much. Shenanigans and violence is sure to follow no matter the outcome.

[Syt]

Have Four Seasons Landscaping cleared their venue for Giuliani's press conference again?

[Barrister]

I maintain my prediction from when it was Biden vs Trump. Harris is going to win over 300 EVs. Voting margin favouring Harris close to 10 million.

Not that it matters much. Shenanigans and violence is sure to follow no matter the outcome.

So I mean I hope you're right.  #NeverTrump

But a really solid Harris win really removes the ability for "shenanigans" as opposed to it coming down to just 1 or 2 states.

[Habbaku]

So I mean I hope you're right.  #NeverTrump

You don't have to go with "So I mean". You can just say what you hope!

[Zoupa]

But a really solid Harris win really removes the ability for "shenanigans" as opposed to it coming down to just 1 or 2 states.

Oh my sweet, summer child.

[frunk]

I think the big shift is that in 2016 and 2020 there were some segments that were sheepish about being Trump voters.  Most of that reticence has been removed on his third go round, but the intimidation and threats of violence (sometimes in the home) have made Harris voters a lot less likely to speak up.

[Tamas]

If it is a big Harris win, Trumpists will claim its evidence of cheating. If it is a narrow Harris win, Trumpists will claim its evidence of cheating.

[Barrister]

So I mean I hope you're right.  #NeverTrump

You don't have to go with "So I mean". You can just say what you hope!

Don't you tell me how to write!

I think writing more colloquially helps to soften the blow where I contradict the person in the next sentence.

[Habbaku]

If it is a big Harris win, Trumpists will claim its evidence of cheating. If it is a narrow Harris win, Trumpists will claim its evidence of cheating.

And if it is a Trump win, they will claim it's evidence of cheating. Maybe we should agree with them. 

[DGuller]

Its not just me saying it, its coming from reliable observers.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/harris-vs-trump-analyst-tells-panicky-dems-gop-is-creating-fake-polls-desperate-unhinged-trumpian.html

IIRC 270 to win does mark which polls are biased and which aren't, but you have to dig in to see this. Even if they do control to reduce their impact, they still do effect the average more than they should.

The extent to which they're having an impact is debatable but that the gop are using this tactic isn't.

But they're aware of it.  From FiveThirtyEigh:

Are partisan pollsters biasing our averages?
One question that we sometimes get is whether polling averages like 538's are biased toward Trump because of the influx of polls conducted by Republican-aligned firms. Over the past two weeks, 22 of the 113 presidential polls released in the seven main swing states were from a Republican pollster or sponsor, while none were from Democratic organizations.** (The remaining 91 polls were nonpartisan.)

While there is always uncertainty about how accurate state polls are, partisan polls affecting our averages is not one of my bigger concerns. That's because we work hard to subtract potential statistical bias from each poll before putting it into our averages. As you can see in our polling-average methodology, we adjust partisan polls to account for the fact that these polls are typically a bit too good for the sponsoring party.

And even for nonpartisan polls, we apply something called a "house effects" adjustment that accounts for how much more Democratic- or Republican-leaning a pollster is than its peers (whether due to the partisan leanings of its principals or, simply methodological choices that typically produce more liberal or conservative samples). For example, if a pollster's polls have consistently been 2 points better for Trump than the polling average, after controlling for factors such as a poll's population (likely voters versus registered voters or all adults) and mode (e.g., live phone, online panel, text message, etc.), we adjust those polls 2 points toward Harris.

Finally, we give less weight to polls from pollsters without a 538 pollster rating and pollsters that release a bunch of polls in a short period of time. This ensures that pollsters that are "flooding the zone" with polls don't have outsized influence in our averages.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-gained-538s-forecast-election-toss/story?id=114907042

Their explanation contains a hint of how partisan polls can be skewing things anyway.  They mention how they compare the poll result against the average to calculate the skew.  Well, where does the average come from, a word of God or all the polls taken together?  An influx of BS polls may be poisoning the average anyway.  What may seem like a house effect of 3 points may actually be a house effect of 4 points.

[PDH]

All garbage

[Barrister]

Their explanation contains a hint of how partisan polls can be skewing things anyway.  They mention how they compare the poll result against the average to calculate the skew.  Well, where does the average come from, a word of God or all the polls taken together?  An influx of BS polls may be poisoning the average anyway.  What may seem like a house effect of 3 points may actually be a house effect of 4 points.

But these poll aggregators could be wrong in 100s of different ways.  They freely acknowledge it.

But what seems more likely - some factor they're completely unaware of, or some factor they're well aware of and trying to adjust for?

If the polls are off in 2024 it's likely for some novel reason, and unlikely to be for the same reason as 2020 or 2016.

[Admiral Yi]

Trump on the other hand is counting on young black males to come out and vote for him (this is all the anti-trans stuff). 

Heard an interview on NPR t'other day which said resistance to a female president was the factor pushing black voters to Trump.

[Josephus]

Polls are pretty much useless at this point. The margin for error exceeds the difference between the polling numbers of either candidate. It's a toss up. That said, although it's a toss up it doesn't necessarily mean it will be a close election. Either candidate can win ALL or NONE of the swing states.

[Admiral Yi]

You don't have to go with "So I mean". You can just say what you hope!

My view on "I mean" has evolved as I've been exposed to more and more content-free verbal ticks that are passive aggressive.  "I mean" is objectionable because it's content free filler, but at least it's not passive aggressive.