2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Crazy_Ivan80]

hm, figures.

[DGuller]

The big unknown unknown with polling are all the adjustments you do to make the sample representative.  I don't know if it's even possible to do that to the precision required in such a small election.  I certainly hope that all the pollsters overcorrected to prevent the repeat of 2020.

[Josquius]

I have heard the "best" polls. Those with the most sound methodology and track records, are leaning towards Harris.
But yes. It is worrying nonetheless.
 This kind of knife edge thing means the slightest thing like the weather can really make a difference.
Certainly Harris seems way too quiet at the moment. Maybe news about her just isn't making it over here.

[Valmy]

I have heard the "best" polls. Those with the most sound methodology and track records, are leaning towards Harris.
But yes. It is worrying nonetheless.
 This kind of knife edge thing means the slightest thing like the weather can really make a difference.
Certainly Harris seems way too quiet at the moment. Maybe news about her just isn't making it over here.

She is all over the place. I wonder if she or Walz ever sleep.

But she isn't Trump. Normal politicians don't have hordes of news people following them around. Only celebrities get that.

[DGuller]

It's very possible that I don't know the tools of that particular trade, but I just have a hard time imagining how anyone in that business can be sure about their sampling bias adjustment methodology.  You can be sure that some methodologies are poor, but knowing that yours is good is much harder.  Even those who really thought things through can get unlucky with assumptions which you must make when environment is changing too quickly for data to capture.

[Sheilbh]

How can people who's beliefs span Bernie to Dick uniting on preserving democracy and the Constitution be anything but a good thing?

I'm not saying it's a bad thing, I think it's a bad message/scripted closing argument in a debate. I think it sounds great for people who think that democracy and the constitution are at risk. And are aware of the differences in views between Sanders and Cheney, rather than just their fairly divisive reputations.

I think the message doesn't land, or is counter-productive outside that group. Either they don't buy it, it reinforces an establishment v Trump view or it just looks like a republican front of some of America's most loathed politicians (I'd be astonished at a Republican presidential campaign wanting to tout an endorsement from Dick Cheney, far less a Democrat ticket ).

[Josephus]

Does anyone else start getting this sinking feeling that this election is rapidly moving away from Democrats across the board?  Trump seems to have all the momentum now.

Yes. Mentioned that about a week ago now. Pendulum is swinging back towards him

[Valmy]

Does anyone else start getting this sinking feeling that this election is rapidly moving away from Democrats across the board?  Trump seems to have all the momentum now.

Yes. Mentioned that about a week ago now. Pendulum is swinging back towards him

I guess. It makes no sense at all. Nothing of any significance has happened this week.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm not saying it's a bad thing, I think it's a bad message/scripted closing argument in a debate. I think it sounds great for people who think that democracy and the constitution are at risk. And are aware of the differences in views between Sanders and Cheney, rather than just their fairly divisive reputations.

I think the message doesn't land, or is counter-productive outside that group. Either they don't buy it, it reinforces an establishment v Trump view or it just looks like a republican front of some of America's most loathed politicians (I'd be astonished at a Republican presidential campaign wanting to tout an endorsement from Dick Cheney, far less a Democrat ticket ).

And what would land better?  Ukraine?  Middle East?  Abortion?  Climate change?  The fact is everyone has their own pet project and you can't please everybody all the time.

[Sophie Scholl]

The media, once again, has made Trump The Story of the election, which cannot help but bolster him. Especially as there is no pushback to anything. Every single thing he does (or doesn't do) get huge coverage and airtime. Meanwhile, Harris could be doing events 24/7 and it wouldn't garner much beyond, "Where's Kamala?". It is maddening. To quote Will Ferrell's character Mugatu from Zoolander, "I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!"

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I have heard the "best" polls. Those with the most sound methodology and track records, are leaning towards Harris.
But yes. It is worrying nonetheless.
 This kind of knife edge thing means the slightest thing like the weather can really make a difference.
Certainly Harris seems way too quiet at the moment. Maybe news about her just isn't making it over here.

She is all over the place. I wonder if she or Walz ever sleep.

But she isn't Trump. Normal politicians don't have hordes of news people following them around. Only celebrities get that.

Which says a lot about the state of what used to be the press.

[Sheilbh]

The media, once again, has made Trump The Story of the election, which cannot help but bolster him. Especially as there is no pushback to anything. Every single thing he does (or doesn't do) get huge coverage and airtime. Meanwhile, Harris could be doing events 24/7 and it wouldn't garner much beyond, "Where's Kamala?". It is maddening. To quote Will Ferrell's character Mugatu from Zoolander, "I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!"

I agree. I've said before there's always a lot of attention on social media and the media on the far right and that is important, but I think the biggest issue is that (still! after 8 years) the mainstream media don't know how to cover Trump. I think they're livestreaming entire rallies less often now, but I think it's a real failure and I think particularly an editorial failure. I've mentioned before but a chronic inability to distinguish news and newsworthy, plus (especially NYT) absurd circumlocutions.

But on the where is Harris point, also people pointing out Harris does the same speech everywhere as a sign of, perhaps, roboticness etc.  It is absolutely the norm in politics to have a stump speech (it's Trump's, to put it kindly, improvisational approach that's odd). And perhaps that is a norm that'll change with Trump. The reason you had a fixed stump speech was because first your in person audience had never heard it before. Then your audience was the people who only pay attention when they have to and the evening news is on, so you need to hammer your message home.

But also pushback still makes Trump the story. Again as discussed on that PPF (as I know CC listens), Harris and Walz (and the media) did strongly pushback on the bullshit about Haitians eating cats. The effect wasn't to remove Trump, but to amplify him - it was a week or two spent talking about Trump, not Harris. (It was also a week or two not spent talking about how bad his debate performance was.)

And what would land better?  Ukraine?  Middle East?  Abortion?  Climate change?  The fact is everyone has their own pet project and you can't please everybody all the time.

My suggestion would be the positive case for Harris - whatever that is (as honed by the campaign). I feel like generally that should be the closing argument - think Obama's change, Trump's make America great again, Biden getting America back/putting it's soul back ("we're Americans" all the stuff about "who we are").

[garbon]

But she has also been doing that Sheilbh. Trotting out old Republicans has just been one piece.

[Oexmelin]

I hope Trumpists start thinking they have it won.  Maybe a few of them decide it isn't worth their time to vote.

That's not going to happen. The whole thing about election fraud has convinced Trumpists they need to swarm the voting booth place to offset the inevitable attempts by Democrats to steal the election.

[grumbler]

Yes. Mentioned that about a week ago now. Pendulum is swinging back towards him

I guess. It makes no sense at all. Nothing of any significance has happened this week.

I've never subscribed to the pendulum theory of popularity.  Something being popular doesn't create a force driving it towards unpopularity.