2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Crazy_Ivan80]

And, say, EU tariffs on Chinese vehicles are also about where they're made not targeting companies - so the emerging focus of Chinese manufacturing in Hungary is a helpful response.

not really, cause it's Hungary, and that's run by a collaborator

[Josephus]

A few weeks ago, Bill Maher, a pessimist, was actually predicting a Kamala victory.
Yesterday, he seemed to be wavering.

I think the biggest mistake Biden did was withdrawing from the race when he did. He should have done it later...like next week.

Kamala had a momentum when he withdrew, that peaked with the debate, but that seems to be fading now. A lot of polls are now showing the pendulum starting to shift back towards Trump--not quite the gap he had in June, but there's still a month left.

[Josquius]

Apparently some new hyper granular pills out today which are very very good news for the Democrats.
These same polls predicted Trump in 2016.
I have only ran across posts discussing them without any link or even mention of their name however. Anyone got any idea?
Times /Siena seems to be the one just released.... Don't have the time to research more now.

Also JD Vance again saying the quiet part out loud in saying the attorney general would be the most important person under Trump. Got to purge his enemies 

[Valmy]

I think the biggest mistake Biden did was withdrawing from the race when he did. He should have done it later...like next week.

He should have dropped out in 2021.

But what's done is done. There is no perfect world where the Democrats do everything perfectly.

The Republicans are saying the real enemy to the United States are all of his political opponents and he can get away with that. In that kind of scenario there is no perfect plan.

[OttoVonBismarck]

To be honest I think the Dems got some unique advantages from the way Biden dropped out. The entire Trump machinery was built around an anti-Biden campaign, heavily steeped in language that Biden is too old. Having it change just shortly before the conventions to a campaign where Trump is now the old candidate by a +18 year margin, running against a Democrat who (quite surprisingly) seems to have very quickly built an organic grassroots enthusiasm, is kind of a worst case scenario.

The Republicans didn't 24 months to nonstop poison the well against Kamala.

I actually think if there is a way you could replicate it in a more formalized way, there is actually benefits that maybe weren't well considered in prior cycles to not having a candidate until quite late in the process. I think a lot of the campaigning 3+ months before a convention does very little to build your support up, but exposes you to withering counter-campaigning.

[OttoVonBismarck]

A few weeks ago, Bill Maher, a pessimist, was actually predicting a Kamala victory.
Yesterday, he seemed to be wavering.

I think the biggest mistake Biden did was withdrawing from the race when he did. He should have done it later...like next week.

Kamala had a momentum when he withdrew, that peaked with the debate, but that seems to be fading now. A lot of polls are now showing the pendulum starting to shift back towards Trump--not quite the gap he had in June, but there's still a month left.

I watch Maher but all of his political prognostications are based purely on vibes, not anything realistic. I haven't read anything meaningful into any of his political prognostications in 30 years because it's the equivalent of asking a guy at the bar who he thinks will win the election.

I do agree Kamala has benefited from the late switch to her, how durable that will be is always going to be hard to say.

Apparently some new hyper granular pills out today which are very very good news for the Democrats.
These same polls predicted Trump in 2016.
I have only ran across posts discussing them without any link or even mention of their name however. Anyone got any idea?
Times /Siena seems to be the one just released.... Don't have the time to research more now.

Also JD Vance again saying the quiet part out loud in saying the attorney general would be the most important person under Trump. Got to purge his enemies 

No one is going to "purge their enemies." The degree to which this forum uncritically repeats these hyperbolic claims is pretty silly. Trump will be a middling to poor Republican President, just as he was in 2017-2021. But he is far more likely to stand up to Iran and to stand down the Hamas infiltrators that have taken root like a cancer in the United States and the West in general. In a civilizational struggle for survival that is far more important than Trump appointing bad Federal judges--Democrats can always create new judgeships if they ever decide to try to actually win in places outside of liberal coastal cities and build a durable Senate majority.

Polling wise--the question is always going to come down to are there hidden Trump voters like there were in 2016 and 2020, or are there hidden Kamala voters.

There is simply no way to tell. There's lots of different arguments and narratives. One narrative is "Trump-shyness" just isn't a thing anymore, he's been too normalized, for too long. People aren't that worried or ashamed to proudly say they are voting for Trump. Another is that pollsters have done massive amounts of manipulation of their modeling to try to "sus out" hidden Trump voters. Some polling people actually say this has been overdone to the point that the polls now significantly overstate Trump's support due to these modeling attempts to find hidden Trump voters. The data points they cite are that Trump actually meaningfully underperformed his polling in almost every Republican primary in 2024. And that Republicans writ large significantly underperformed their polling in 2022. The narrative there is that there is now systemic polling that both overstates Trump support and understates Democratic support.

But how much that is being reflected in top line polls is really hard to say.

Goes back to why I'm not gambling on this election (a pastime of mine) I simply won't be surprised at any outcome on election day--anything from a close election to even a pretty strong win by either candidate wouldn't shock me.

[Tamas]

I wonder if the problem is that for the last few weeks a casual like me   can only encounter two kinds of news:
1. Trump said his daily outrageous bullshit and people are outraged

2. Some new poll showing Harris losing momentum.

Like, is Harris hiding or justthat the superficial level I follow this stuff at, media only cares about clickbait provided by Trump?

[Razgovory]

"I am voting for Trump because he is a lazy liar who won't do the things he says he will do" is one of the strangest things I have seen in American politics.  And it is a common excuse among conservatives.

[Savonarola]

I wonder if the problem is that for the last few weeks a casual like me   can only encounter two kinds of news:
1. Trump said his daily outrageous bullshit and people are outraged

2. Some new poll showing Harris losing momentum.

Like, is Harris hiding or justthat the superficial level I follow this stuff at, media only cares about clickbait provided by Trump?

Harris has kept a notoriously light schedule but, by her standards, this was a media blitz as she had interviews with The View, Sixty Minutes, Stephen Colbert and she was in Vogue (strike a pose).  In addition there were stories that Ron Desantis doesn't return her phone calls ( ); Biden is stumping for her; Barack Obama is stumping for her; and that she is in excellent health.

[Josquius]

No one is going to "purge their enemies." The degree to which this forum uncritically repeats these hyperbolic claims is pretty silly. Trump will be a middling to poor Republican President, just as he was in 2017-2021. But he is far more likely to stand up to Iran and to stand down the Hamas infiltrators that have taken root like a cancer in the United States and the West in general. In a civilizational struggle for survival that is far more important than Trump appointing bad Federal judges--Democrats can always create new judgeships if they ever decide to try to actually win in places outside of liberal coastal cities and build a durable Senate majority.

Define purge.
Trumpist secret police going around and putting a bullet in the back of the head of anyone who displeases him-obviously stupid.
Trump and Co sicking the legal system on anyone they don't  like, suppressing free speech and democracy - this has been actually happening. That they would step it up with the presidency is a pretty sane prediction.

It being a civilizational struggle is exactly why trump must lose.
He no hyperbole represents genuine fascism-light authoritarianism built on lies and corruption, directly opposing real American values of democracy, honesty, and integrity.

Islamic extremists aren't a threat in 1% Muslim America.
The percent of the population who have supported trumpsism on the other hand... Now that is a worry.

America itself needs to stand as a bastion of democracy. This is something that it should take more than one term of trump to fully destroy.
Far more of an immediate threat however are those who share an ideology with trump in Russia and China.
Ukraine must win.
And I can't see trump allowing that.

[Valmy]

But he is far more likely to stand up to Iran and to stand down the Hamas infiltrators that have taken root like a cancer in the United States and the West in general.

Not to be hyperbolic or anything.

[Darth Wagtaros]

Apparently the fact that California hasn't had an Earthquake lately is proof that the Democrats control the weather.

I missed the old days when it was just sex scandals and such.

[Tamas]

Police finds a rightwinger on his way to a rightwing rally with a loaded gun in his car and figures he surely was going to kill the rightwing leader:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/13/las-vegas-man-arrested-trump-assassination-attempt-coachella-california

[Zanza]

No one is going to "purge their enemies." The degree to which this forum uncritically repeats these hyperbolic claims is pretty silly. Trump will be a middling to poor Republican President, just as he was in 2017-2021. But he is far more likely to stand up to Iran and to stand down the Hamas infiltrators that have taken root like a cancer in the United States and the West in general. In a civilizational struggle for survival that is far more important than Trump appointing bad Federal judges

I predict the opposite will happen: Trump will massively damage the American domestic and international institutional framework and will do nothing to resolve the Middle East.

[Valmy]

And, as seen in Afghanistan, he will actually cozy up to Islamists so long as they say nice things about him.

He has promised to go after his domestic enemies but let's ignore what he actually says and instead presume he will do something he has never said he would do nor is there any evidence he will do it.

But it's Otto so he probably doesn't mean any of it anyway and he is just trying to annoy us