2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Admiral Yi]

But it definitely seems true that the American right, much like people here, vastly overstate how much it an issue it actually is.

What would be the accurate statement of how much of an issue it really is?

[crazy canuck]

If Neil was still here he would probably ban BB for disrespecting Nixon by suggesting the Southern shift toward the Republicans occurred in the 80s.

BB - read up on the Southern Strategy.

[Valmy]

If Neil was still here he would probably ban BB for disrespecting Nixon by suggesting the Southern shift toward the Republicans occurred in the 80s.

BB - read up on the Southern Strategy.

There is this weird thing in American political history for 1948-1976 to just go right down the memory hole. People even in the 1990s were acting like the Democrats had just lost the support of the Solid South, presumably because of being out of touch liberals, despite this happening because of something Harry Truman did.

Carter winning over the Southerners with his Southern Baptist ways I guess meant people thought the Democrats had built back the Solid South for good despite it being a one time thing. And again Carter still lost Virginia.

[Josquius]

But it definitely seems true that the American right, much like people here, vastly overstate how much it an issue it actually is.

What would be the accurate statement of how much of an issue it really is?

It's not an exact science.
But looking at this list of important issues to Americans
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1362236/most-important-voter-issues-us/
It comes 2nd. Which.... Haway.
Healthcare, the economy, climate, hell, even with the current assault on rights going on abortion, are all more important.
Probably some of those lower too - the shooting epidemic for instance boosts guns up the rationalist agenda.

[Admiral Yi]

It's not an exact science.
But looking at this list of important issues to Americans
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1362236/most-important-voter-issues-us/
It comes 2nd. Which.... Haway.
Healthcare, the economy, climate, hell, even with the current assault on rights going on abortion, are all more important.
Probably some of those lower too - the shooting epidemic for instance boosts guns up the rationalist agenda.

Healthcare 90% of people are set.  The economy is fine.  It turns out no one gives a shit about abortion.

[Josquius]

It's not an exact science.
But looking at this list of important issues to Americans
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1362236/most-important-voter-issues-us/
It comes 2nd. Which.... Haway.
Healthcare, the economy, climate, hell, even with the current assault on rights going on abortion, are all more important.
Probably some of those lower too - the shooting epidemic for instance boosts guns up the rationalist agenda.

Healthcare 90% of people are set.  The economy is fine.  It turns out no one gives a shit about abortion.

90% of people absolutely are not "set".
Healthcare is one of those things where no matter how good it is (which I gather in the US things are anything but) it can always do better.
For the economy the same applies. In the current situation where the US is still recovering from a massive low and things are incredibly unequally spread.... Its not without reason that Trump is trying to push this one too (despite it being a result of things under his watch).

Immigration meanwhile...Illegal immigration in particular....for 90%+ of people its not something that impacts their daily life at all. Yet people have been conditioned to believe its one of the most important issues.

[The Minsky Moment]

If the media company with the largest viewership in America keeps screaming at their viewers that immigration in the world problem in the world with INVASIONS and giant caravans of death, it's not surprising that the issue polls highly in salience.

The irony is that immigration really is a significant issue, with the problem being that there are insufficient amounts of legal immigration and a long-term trend of demographic stagnation.  The Right acknowledges the latter problem but their solution is pursuing Gilead-lite.

[Barrister]

If Neil was still here he would probably ban BB for disrespecting Nixon by suggesting the Southern shift toward the Republicans occurred in the 80s.

BB - read up on the Southern Strategy.

Again you don't seem to think much of me.  I'm quite familiar with the "southern strategy" as an amateur political junkie.

In hindsight we can see that it was starting to have effects, but it certainly did not give Nixon either of his victories.  In 1968 much of the south went for George Wallace, and to the extent Nixon won any states it was through vote-splitting between Nixon, Humphrey and Wallace.  But yes it was starting to bear fruit.

1972 Nixon swept the South - but then again he swept the country.  I had forgotten what a landslide it was - McGovern only won Mass. and DC, with Nixon taking everything else.

But I specifically brought up 1976 - where Carter swept the south. It turned out to be a last gasp of the Democratic south, but it still happened.

It was in 1980 where the switch was firmly switched, and where the south has been a GOP stronghold at the Presidential level, and then into the 90s at the other levels as well.

I didn't invent the term "Reagan democrats" you know.

[PJL]

Trump will probably win this time, but at least Harris has made it competitive. Something akin to 2016 is most likely.

[Barrister]

Trump will probably win this time, but at least Harris has made it competitive. Something akin to 2016 is most likely.

Trump might definitely win, but it's pretty close, and there's no "probably" about it.

I heard one analyst say "it could go either way at this point, but I'd rather be in Harris's position than Trump's".

[PJL]

Trump will probably win this time, but at least Harris has made it competitive. Something akin to 2016 is most likely.

Trump might definitely win, but it's pretty close, and there's no "probably" about it.

I heard one analyst say "it could go either way at this point, but I'd rather be in Harris's position than Trump's".

Well I'm sure they said something similar in 2016 re Clinton & Trump and look what happened there. Hopefully the polls will be more accurate this time around, but I would prefer if Harris consistently had a 5-6 point lead. Even in 2020, Biden's actual lead in the election was about 3-4 points less than what polls were predicting.

Here's my prediction - Trump to get 310, Harris 218 in the EC. All the swing states will go for Trump.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The polls actually were mostly right in 2016 and 2020, the degree to which they were wrong has often been overstated, and also tends to forget that all the polls have a margin of error so normal variations happen inside of that MOE--and many of the States were polling w/in the MOE in both years.

There was a minor understatement of Trump's support in a few places in both elections, but there's also been "crosswind" indicators since 2020, when it appears the abortion issue has created a lot of more activist Dem voters who for whatever reason are not appearing quite as consistently on polls--this phenomenon appears to explain a lot of Dem surprise wins in the 2022 mid terms and a number of State and off-cycle elections in the last 3.5 years as well.

[Valmy]

Trump will probably win this time, but at least Harris has made it competitive. Something akin to 2016 is most likely.

Unfortunately I don't have sufficient evidence to prove you wrong.

Either way it will be a nail biter.

[Barrister]

A lot of crazy shit on Twitter (of course) out of North Carolina - about how FEMA isn't there, or how FEMA are seizing guns / expropriating land, hiding dead bodies, all the kind of right-wing fever swamp stuff.  The only sources of course are other social media posts / TikTok videos.  Crazy how this shit spreads.  No idea what kind of effect it could have on the election.

And that's before you get into the weather control stuff...

[Tamas]

I think Valmy mentioned this and was spot on: the far right and people who listen to their media inhabit a reality entirely different to the rest of us.