2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Josquius]

When I see right wing minorities I can't help but put it in the same box as transphobic gay people.
The minute the pitch fork waving mob that was after them finds a new target they're picking up a flaming torch and joining in.

[Sheilbh]

And less positive ones, like going full retard.

Isn't that more general conservatives in America, of which some are minorities?

Not sure why we'd expect black or Latino or any other minority American conservatism to be more starchily, country club, old school conservatives than any other American conservative.

Edit: Especially as part of it seems to be socialisation - for example, black conservatives who have mainly black social networks are still indicating support for Democrats, while if they have diverse social networks they're more likely to support Republicans. It would seem very odd if there seems to be a socialisation element if their conservatism was radically different than the white conservatives they're mixing with.

[garbon]

And less positive ones, like going full retard.

Isn't that more general conservatives in America, of which some are minorities?

Not sure why we'd expect black or Latino or any other minority American conservatism to be more starchily, country club, old school conservatives than any other American conservative.

Edit: Especially as part of it seems to be socialisation - for example, black conservatives who have mainly black social networks are still indicating support for Democrats, while if they have diverse social networks they're more likely to support Republicans. It would seem very odd if there seems to be a socialisation element if their conservatism was radically different than the white conservatives they're mixing with.

I'd like to imagine people could be socially conservative without debasing themselves and everyone connected with them.

Not that I would like them to be socially conservative but there should be a path to doing so that does not mean going full idiot.

[Tamas]

Lots from fiercely bigotted religious (or if you want to put it nicely, socially conservative) family/cultural backgrounds, low income with little to no access to quality education, if these minorities happened to be whites they'd be considered the quintessential target audience for the Right. It's almost racist to be surprised they are tilting that way.

[Sheilbh]

I'd like to imagine people could be socially conservative without debasing themselves and everyone connected with them.

Not that I would like them to be socially conservative but there should be a path to doing so that does not mean going full idiot.

For sure.

But I think political views are likely to be socially constructed - either shaped by or in reaction against the social environment someone's in. American conservatism is a pretty debased pool at the minute, but I'd expect that to shape 90% of self-identified conservatives in the US whatever their race or ethnicity.

There are absolutely people who self-create their beliefs or who are able to stand apart, but I think it's pretty rare.

[The Minsky Moment]

And less positive ones, like going full retard.

Isn't that more general conservatives in America, of which some are minorities?

Not sure why we'd expect black or Latino or any other minority American conservatism to be more starchily, country club, old school conservatives than any other American conservative.

A very fine GOP person recently made the very fine comment: ""Any Jewish person that votes for Democrats hates their religion. They hate everything about Israel."

Deep below the grotesquely offensive commentary is a point: if the GOP is pro-Israel, if it is sufficiently PC enough to give lip service to "Judeo-Christian" values, if it offers economic policies that should be of interest of a group with significantly higher than average income and wealth, why do American Jews tend to shun the GOP like the plague?

IMO there are two big causes.  Number 1 is that the right-wing of the GOP has a Nazi problem.  Nazis are a big deal-breaker. I can live with an Ilhan Omar or two flailing about on the left singing about river to the sea; I can't stomach the Jewish Space Laser caucus picking the Speaker of the House. I can't stomach the US President very fine peopling the guys with swastikas and bedsheets.

Number 2 is related. No matter how tolerant American society seems, there is always the feeling that Jews in some sense are still viewed as an Other. A tolerated accepted Other perhaps, but an Other nonetheless. And so rhetoric about subhuman animals crossing the border makes us nervous. In a politics of Us versus Them, no matter how it starts, history proves over and over that the Jews will always end up in the Them column.  And again we can already see this cropping up on the alt right.

The same logic IMO should apply for other historical minority groups. The GOP has a Nazi problem, a Klan problem, a racism problem broadly. I get why there are Black folks, Latinos, Asians etc. that may like family values, entreprenurship, and other traditional core GOP principles. But no tax break is worth letting the bedsheets back into political influence.

[viper37]

Interesting thread from John Burn-Murdoch on possible signs of a re-alignment in voting patterns by race in the US - there's also follow up article by Nate Silver on this in actual elections, particularly in New York and Texas:
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1767198788689465639

I doubt it'll have an impact this election but feels like something Democrats should be thinking about. The thing that's really interesting is that (as in the UK) while I'm not keen on the politics, the possible causes may actually, in a way, be reflective of positive social trends like people mixing more, minority conservatives voting their ideology/beliefs more.

Valmy was disputing this notion a few days ago.

I think it's a worrying trend.

[Razgovory]

Saw an interview on CNN where they talked to an illegal immigrant who supported Trump.  He said that Trump loves this country and wants it to better while the economy has been a disaster under Biden.

[Tamas]

the economy has been a disaster under Biden.

He heard this from Trump himself, no doubt.

[Valmy]

Saw an interview on CNN where they talked to an illegal immigrant who supported Trump.  He said that Trump loves this country and wants it to better while the economy has been a disaster under Biden.

People often wonder why the Republicans are so difficult to defeat. Their political prowess and ability to get their message out, even among a group they are publicly determined to destroy, is impressive.

[Valmy]

A very fine GOP person recently made the very fine comment: ""Any Jewish person that votes for Democrats hates their religion. They hate everything about Israel."

Yeah they do that to white men all the time. "A white man voting for the Democrats is like a sheep voting for wolves." Because the Democrats hate and want to destroy and oppress us. Despite, you know, Joe Biden being President and stuff.

It works to. I have heard more than once how we white men are the most oppressed group in America. Amazing.

[crazy canuck]

I think where parties on the left, within Liberal Democracies, have generally gone wrong is they have lost the ability to give hope that they have a plan to make the lives of wage earners better (I hesitate to say the working poor because with the price of housing these days, the working poor is now the vast majority of the population).

The extreme right steps in and says they have all the solutions.  It's all nonsense but they are the only ones giving hope - as false at it might be.  Its the totalitarian play book.  Everyone on this forum knows their history.  We all see it happening again.  I used to wonder what people in Germany were thinking when they let it happen.  Seeing what is happening now, I think the answer is people just feel powerless to do anything about it.

Oex is correct when he reminds us all, with some urgency, to get involved in politics.  But generally people have lost faith in the system.

I think Viper has the right idea - time to go full bunker mode. 

[Jacob]

People often wonder why the Republicans are so difficult to defeat. Their political prowess and ability to get their message out, even among a group they are publicly determined to destroy, is impressive.

On the whole, capital supports the GOP and capital - over time - buys up most social and traditional media. Propaganda works.

This is, IMO, compounded by the fact that both capital and organized foreign actors are putting significant resources into leveraging social media to pursue their various agendas - and those tend to coincide with supporting the GOP.

[Sheilbh]

The same logic IMO should apply for other historical minority groups. The GOP has a Nazi problem, a Klan problem, a racism problem broadly. I get why there are Black folks, Latinos, Asians etc. that may like family values, entreprenurship, and other traditional core GOP principles. But no tax break is worth letting the bedsheets back into political influence.

I don't disagree - but it looks like there is less a re-alignment than a de-polarisation on the basis of race.

The headline is this shift (which may not show up once we get to a general election and people start paying attention etc). Even if it does tighten, I think the Democrats could probably do with thinking about why the one group their message/strategy really seems to resonate with is the college educated:


In particular it looks like younger minorities have less attachment to the Democrats - which makes me think of what we see in continental Europe where, often, the weakest vote for the far and radical right is the oldest. The people who remember or came to political consciousness in the aftermath of fascism - while there's a weaker individual cordon sanitaire for younger voters. I suspect something similar is happening with the attachment of particularly African-Americans to the Democrats. The other thing is minority conservatives moving to vote Republican - so again polarising on belief/ideology rather than race:


As I say I think this is bad politically. The ambiguity is that it looks like it's partially driven by social changes that I think are positive. So, for example, the big indicator seems to be whether someone mainly has friends in their own community, or more diverse social networks (and there's a Bowling Alone angle there, perhaps, with declining church attendance etc). But basically if you're, say, a Black conservative who mainly has Black friends/social network then you're likely to still say you'll back the Democrats. So while this is bad politically, it looks like one of the drivers is what Garbon posted about earlier - more Americans live in racially mixed neighbourhoods, the level of segregation between communities is falling.

If that is a driver, perhaps it is possibly a bit like the shift of "white ethnic" voters, with the power of communities with political norms diminishing? And, I wonder if that ties back to Democrats increasingly seem to mainly resonate with the college educated?

On the whole, capital supports the GOP and capital - over time - buys up most social and traditional media. Propaganda works.

I don't think capital did in 2016 - I think there was a genuine fear of Trump with Wall Street at that point and they overwhelmingly backed Clinton. But you look at Dimon's comments in Davos, you look at the reception Milei got in Davos and since and I think capital is now fairly comfortable with/thinks they can manage the risk of Trump-ish disruption.

Edit: Altough I'd add that I do also think that something we all said in the last few years is given the pandemic, supply disruptions, cost of living etc it is a very, very challenging time to be an incumbent in any democracy right now almost regardless of your policies. I think Biden has had more success than I expected and delivered better than basically any other Western leader - but, for want of a better phrase, the lived experience of many people will have been a really tough few years.  That's still a factor.

I also think - and I know this is my pet theory - that American politics is becoming slightly more parliamentarian. It's more ideologically divided and relatively coherent blocs and I think people increasingly sort ideologically (I'm always unsure whether the culture war is downstream of the political polarisation or vice versa). I think the Democrats still look, still behave and are broadly still led by people who act as if it's mid-twentieth century coalition politics - and I'm not sure that's right anymore.

[Valmy]

Those graphs seem to suggest that the Republicans have done better in every subsequent election since 2012 yet in 2012 and 2016 they controlled the House, Senate, and many more state governments than they do today. I feel like there is additional data you are not showing.

Anyway the massive wins for the Republicans among Black and Hispanic voters has been the constant big story for 40 years.  It is such a tiresome and constant narrative. Oh and all the poor are now big Republicans. Despite the Republicans winning huge in every demographic for 40 years they still don't manage to constantly win all the elections so color me skeptical. Or it is true but only true in a way that doesn't significantly shift vote totals.