2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[grumbler]

I tend to rate the effectiveness of propaganda and social media manipulation higher than most folks here - so it's probably no surprise that I think successful propaganda and social media manipulation campaigns are a key contributor here.

Last year a Palestinian-sympathizing friend treated me to an IMO rather unhinged rant about how Biden was fucking himself by not stopping Israel that then detoured through "they (politicians) are all equally corrupt" through "Epstein" to "Clinton is probably a pedophile".

I think the line of reasoning - or maybe rather the emotional through-line - for the anti-Biden Palestine sympathizers, basically follows that path:

1) There's no real difference between either party, the whole system is corrupt!
2) Biden is insufficiently pure, therefore he must be punished.
3) There's no real negative consequence to 2) because of 1).

Those holding the three lines of reasoning are Trump supporters, anyway.  If there's no difference between the two parties, then there is no downside to supporting Trump and his war against the horrifying trans/gay people. It's hard for an outsider to see that there's no difference between the two regarding issues Arab-Americans care about, given Trump's order to ban all Muslim travel to the US, but nutty people see things differently.

[Admiral Yi]

Illinois judge just kicked Donald off the ballot.

[Valmy]

Well hopefully he gets kicked off the ballot in Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia as well.

[Josquius]

Caught a  bit of Biden speaking about the border.
He isn't a great speaker is he.
But how did this "Lets do our fucking jobs" land?

[Valmy]

Voted in the primary. Man that was a tough decision even though it was a totally symbolic vote.

I wanted Joe to do a bunch of things during his first two years and he did those:
Pandemic relief
Federal Marijuana reform
Student debt relief
Infrastructure
and Energy/Climate change

And hey he even got a gay marriage bill passed.

On the other hand he said he was there to be a bridge to the next generation of leaders, with the understanding he would serve just one term. But he hasn't been that bridge and he hasn't groomed a successor. That seems to me a pretty big betrayal of his mandate and puts us in danger once again. Now granted he didn't explicitly promise he would only serve on term but he did basically everything but.

So I went in there planning on voting for Dean Phillips, who basically agrees with Joe on everything anyway, just to kind of send a message that Joe is steering us wrong by trying to win re-election. But man it was tough once I actually got in the voting booth. Because basically he did what I wanted him to do back before he got a Republican House.  It doesn't really matter what I actually did end up doing, but I feel conflicted about it.

I sure hope things start looking up at some point politically.

Fortunately the down ballot races I felt much better about. Hope we can do well locally in November.

[Valmy]

I'm not sure I understand the uncommitted protest in Michigan where people unhappy with Biden's policy with regards to Israel, voted uncommitted in Dem primsry to a tune to of 20%.

Unless they are threatening they will vote for Trump, or third party, or stay home, which in all cases would increase Trump's likelihood of winning - I'm not sure why this protest would matter. Would they be open to Trump victory to achieve their aims?

95% of the protest voters will rally to Joe in the General. The problem in a state like Michigan is that 5% could make a difference.

[viper37]

It's hard for an outsider to see that there's no difference between the two regarding issues Arab-Americans care about,

You look at it rationally.  They don't.  These are the same kind of people who did not vote for Hillary in 2016 because "she was just like Trump."

[Sophie Scholl]

I've been weighing if I should post in any of the politics threads outside of a short comment or two and finally decided to make a go at it.   

Voting uncommitted in a primary with an incumbent is a signal, to me at least, that you'll still vote for them but don't approve of some of their policies and want that to be known. I think it is actually a great concept. I definitely feel a lot of frustration and anger toward the administration myself and would have voted uncommitted if I were still a registered Democrat here in NY (I switched to Working Families Party when I moved most recently). I'll still vote Biden (despite it not really being necessary here due to the huge Democratic dominance) as I know that Trump winning is basically a death sentence for me and people like me. I still feel like I should have some outlet to voice my displeasure with certain things, though, and really, really don't like being told to shut up and toe a party line that doesn't align with my own beliefs simply because the alternative is absolutely awful. I'm tired of Democrats running as "not Republicans" instead of actually running on specific policies they plan to implement and not just "oops" away as things wear on. Being better than Republicans still leaves a whole lot of room for being pretty bad. This is highlighted by the response toward those who voice disappointment in the Biden and the party and those who voted/will vote uncommitted in the primary. Instead of taking the opportunity to listen and make said people feel appreciated, they are attacked, belittled, and treated terribly. It seems the only groups that Democrats bend over backward to please and work with are the mythical "undecided" voter and Republicans. They always work with the Right while freezing out the Left. It is exhausting and incredibly disheartening.

[garbon]

I've been weighing if I should post in any of the politics threads outside of a short comment or two and finally decided to make a go at it.   

Voting uncommitted in a primary with an incumbent is a signal, to me at least, that you'll still vote for them but don't approve of some of their policies and want that to be known. I think it is actually a great concept. I definitely feel a lot of frustration and anger toward the administration myself and would have voted uncommitted if I were still a registered Democrat here in NY (I switched to Working Families Party when I moved most recently). I'll still vote Biden (despite it not really being necessary here due to the huge Democratic dominance) as I know that Trump winning is basically a death sentence for me and people like me. I still feel like I should have some outlet to voice my displeasure with certain things, though, and really, really don't like being told to shut up and toe a party line that doesn't align with my own beliefs simply because the alternative is absolutely awful. I'm tired of Democrats running as "not Republicans" instead of actually running on specific policies they plan to implement and not just "oops" away as things wear on. Being better than Republicans still leaves a whole lot of room for being pretty bad. This is highlighted by the response toward those who voice disappointment in the Biden and the party and those who voted/will vote uncommitted in the primary. Instead of taking the opportunity to listen and make said people feel appreciated, they are attacked, belittled, and treated terribly. It seems the only groups that Democrats bend over backward to please and work with are the mythical "undecided" voter and Republicans. They always work with the Right while freezing out the Left. It is exhausting and incredibly disheartening.

From my point of view, I see the uncommitted movement as naive at best. It is not the case that everyone voting for Biden in primaries/planning to do so in the general is doing so because they are so enamored of his policies. Voting for Biden will for many be a vote to keep at bay the madness at Trump. In fact for many voting for the Dems is a vote against the madness of the Republicans. So those who feel the need to express their displeasure through protest votes aren't all that unique in their feelings toward Biden. We also have things like approval rating polling that can show us the level of Dems who are unhappy (just checked and that's at about 17%).

On the other hand, it could be actively harmful if people who lodge those protest votes/those observing protest votes spend so much time mired in their displeasure at Biden that they start actively viewing him as basically as awful as Trump. They then might not vote at all in the general or spend their vote on a worthless third party candidate (worthless given the realities of presidential elections in America). It is all to easy if one starts to imbibe narratives that Biden is a promoter of genocide to make it impossible one to support him over Trump.

So overall, it feels like a symbolic gesture by people who falsely think they are unique in being disaffected that adds to the risk of that orange loser coming back to power.

[garbon]

I should add that I'm not particularly worried by what any individual voter chooses to do in a primary but rather coordinated efforts like we saw in Michigan. Based on the article, Tamas posted from the Guardian and the comments on that, it is all to easy for efforts to spawn groupthink that then say they don't really have agency in whether Trump wins ('don't blame progressives if Biden loses').

[viper37]

That seems to me a pretty big betrayal of his mandate and puts us in danger once again. Now granted he didn't explicitly promise he would only serve on term but

It is.  And I feel like, either there are issues with Kamala Harris, or there are issues with the party at whole.

[Admiral Yi]

What Grab On said.  I don't belittle Michigan Arabs for wanting a cease fire, or the end of aid to Israel.  I belittle them for subscribing to a course of action which, if successful, will lead to a worse outcome from their point of view.

[Tamas]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/03/trump-confuses-obama-biden-virginia-rally

Trump prepares again to fight Obama for the presidency while Biden mistakes Ukraine with Gaza.

[OttoVonBismarck]

What Grab On said.  I don't belittle Michigan Arabs for wanting a cease fire, or the end of aid to Israel.  I belittle them for subscribing to a course of action which, if successful, will lead to a worse outcome from their point of view.

People of course have the right to cast a "protest vote", I just think that in the era of hyper partisanship, it is almost always the wrong game theory move to make. When your choice is between a center-lefty and a center-righty, and you're say, far left, and just fucking loathe some specific decisions of the center-lefty, it isn't a terrible move to advance your influence to vote third party or something as a "signal" to the left party leadership.

When the choice is between a mainstream liberal and a far right fascist who says he wants to establish a "One Day dictatorship", lock up opposition media and politicians, and any number of other things, I think the rationality of casting a protest vote for some third party goes down a lot.

Unfortunately though, a common trait of people on the political extremes is they have a hard time distinguish between a mainstream politician who is at least obviously on their side, and a dangerous extremist on the other. Extremists tend to view everyone else as some extremist enemy of theirs and to them Biden is no worse than Trump.

[Admiral Yi]

People of course have the right to cast a "protest vote", I just think that in the era of hyper partisanship, it is almost always the wrong game theory move to make. When your choice is between a center-lefty and a center-righty, and you're say, far left, and just fucking loathe some specific decisions of the center-lefty, it isn't a terrible move to advance your influence to vote third party or something as a "signal" to the left party leadership.

When the choice is between a mainstream liberal and a far right fascist who says he wants to establish a "One Day dictatorship", lock up opposition media and politicians, and any number of other things, I think the rationality of casting a protest vote for some third party goes down a lot.

Unfortunately though, a common trait of people on the political extremes is they have a hard time distinguish between a mainstream politician who is at least obviously on their side, and a dangerous extremist on the other. Extremists tend to view everyone else as some extremist enemy of theirs and to them Biden is no worse than Trump.

It's hard to imagine an issue a left of center would be worse on than a right of center from the progressive POV.  That certainly doesn't describe idiot Berniebots voting for Trump over Hillary.

And I would have much less problem with Michigan Arabs voting for Trump or sitting it out if Trump was softer on Israel than Biden.  He's not.  He uses moving the embassy to Jerusalem in his stump speeches.  That's what makes their move delusional and self defeating.