2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Jacob]

In my observation, many of those who continually proclaim their commitment to reason and logic tend to be very rigorous in excluding data that doesn't fit neatly into their mental models due to ambiguity, uncertain provenance, discomfort with aspects of the data, etc. Similarly they'll often attempt to reframe questions into ones that are easily quantifiable and measurable, which not infrequently removes essential elements of the inquiry.

They often reach precise conclusions with high degrees of confidence, but because they've pruned the data inputs so severely to fit their mode of analysis and/ or reduced the question they're answering to one of easily enumerated and measurable quantities, those conclusions are not infrequently inapplicable or inaccurate to the actual question at hand.

That's not to say they aren't correct with some frequency, of course, but a vocal commitment to "logic" and "rationality" is not a predictor of higher rates of being correct from my point of view.

[Jacob]

You really are a contemptible petulant fuck. [edited]

I'd like to remind everyone that public references (in OT, which is publicly viewable and searchable) to information shared in confidence in the back room (which is not publicly viewable and searchable) are not okay.

This is even more the case when it comes to using personal life references in an attack.

[Barrister]

You really are a contemptible petulant fuck.  [edited]

I have CC on my ignore list for a reason (even though I reply to his posts more often than I should).

But that was kind of a low blow.

[Admiral Yi]

Bomb threats in OH against the people trying to protect the evil Haitian cat eaters.

[Barrister]

So on Twitter I'm seeing a bunch of speculation that Trump is probably having some kind of affair with right-wing nut-job Laura Loomer.  This of course is hardly much of a stretch to imagine given Trump's long history of affairs plus the fact Melania is basically never seen with him.

It's to the point I present to you a BBC article about the "influence" Loomer has over Trump, although a responsible news outlet like the BBC doesn't suggest a physical affair.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly8y27dwgpo

[crazy canuck]

You really are a contemptible petulant fuck. [edited]

I'd like to remind everyone that public references (in OT, which is publicly viewable and searchable) to information shared in confidence in the back room (which is not publicly viewable and searchable) are not okay.

This is even more the case when it comes to using personal life references in an attack.

I was referring to HVC's comments this thread.

And what personal life references are you even talking about?

[Josephus]

Meanwhile the pope hedges his bets. Tells US Catholics that abortion is bad but so is the Republican stance on migration.

So basically he's letting American Catholics vote for either party with a clear conscience

[grumbler]

Thousands of young people have signed up to vote. Whether they can get their arses off their phones on election day is another story altogether

If they have indeed been politicized, they will be carefully looking at all the down-ballot races as well.

[grumbler]

So on Twitter I'm seeing a bunch of speculation that Trump is probably having some kind of affair with right-wing nut-job Laura Loomer.  This of course is hardly much of a stretch to imagine given Trump's long history of affairs plus the fact Melania is basically never seen with him.

It's to the point I present to you a BBC article about the "influence" Loomer has over Trump, although a responsible news outlet like the BBC doesn't suggest a physical affair.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly8y27dwgpo

Thanks for the share.  I'd not been aware of her.  She's so stupid that even Margorie Taylor Greene noticed!

[Jacob]

Audio on.

[Valmy]

I get that it's such a bizarre thing to say it is funny but it is a blood libel and will result in violent persecution of Haitians. And he has basically promised a pogrom against these people if he wins.

I don't find it funny. Even by my very low expectations of Donnie he has sunk to a whole new disgusting low.

[grumbler]

Audio on.

   Sometimes good things come from the unlikeliest places.

[Sophie Scholl]

So on Twitter I'm seeing a bunch of speculation that Trump is probably having some kind of affair with right-wing nut-job Laura Loomer.  This of course is hardly much of a stretch to imagine given Trump's long history of affairs plus the fact Melania is basically never seen with him.

It's to the point I present to you a BBC article about the "influence" Loomer has over Trump, although a responsible news outlet like the BBC doesn't suggest a physical affair.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly8y27dwgpo

Seems an odd choice for him. She isn't blonde or young. Maybe he's changing things up out of spite now that Ivanka hasn't been as vocal in supporting him this run?

[Sophie Scholl]

Hundreds of thousands of young people have not become become politicized by this event, based on the info we have to date.  Hundreds of thousands of young people have decided that they will vote for whomever Taylor Swift tells them to vote for.  Not necessarily "stupid" but certainly very far from wise.

I think one of the issues for the modern (and probably historical) youth vote, or lack there of, is a sense of disenfranchisement in terms of actual power and influence. As such, a lot of them tune out and just accept that whatever happens in elections will happen and their best bets to make a change are protests and the like. When a celebrity they care about calls for action, though, it can shake them from their indifference and jaded resignation to make the effort to vote. Maybe. Just going with what I've seen and heard personally and applying that anecdotal evidence to possibly explain the wider trend.

[Admiral Yi]

Donnie triples down on Haitian pet eaters.  He wants mass deportations from Springfield OH.