2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD

[OttoVonBismarck]

That being said, a rules change requires a majority vote of Yeas vs Nays, which 214 alone won't get you if the current 6 Jordan voters vote Nay (which I assume they will.)

[Valmy]

That Democrat member showed up and voted, his arm was in a sling so maybe he got into some kind of accident.

[Sheilbh]

Rosendale seems decently dug in--but promisingly for McCarthy he has published op-eds and such outlying specific things he would like to see McCarthy reform. That's at least something to work with, unlike Gaetz/Boebert who say there is no deal that can be made.

Rosendale also seems like someone who likes the attention:
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1611425826050027520?s=20&t=X25N0lbOXh84JqD2SBSG3g

[garbon]

BBC's first let's ask Republicans how they feel was from Arizona and said this sort of debate is healthy to see.

[OttoVonBismarck]

So it looks like by hook or crook McCarthy will probably limp to the Speakership. Lot of weird talk about what he's had to agree to in order to dislodge opponents--it sounds like he has committed to a discretionary spending cap freezing spending at 2022 levels, and a promise not to push a clean debt ceiling raise this year.

There are some major problems with this--most notably a very large contingent of the Republican caucus (much more than the holdouts) are strongly against both issues--particularly the discretionary spending freeze because there is a big group of Republican caucus members who are gearing up to push for expanded defense spending this year, this agreement would almost certainly require a $75bn cut in defense spending to be viable. The debt ceiling agreement also is likely opposed by a good chunk of Republicans.

Oddly, there is talk that McCarthy and Connolly (one of his senior allies in the House) have pitched the deal as not a big problem to moderate Republicans by saying "we can just bypass it with a discharge petition." It is pretty wild to indicate you're planning to enter into a deal that you don't expect to be enforced, and to be encouraging a discharge petition of your members, which is also relatively unheard of.

I also don't know how it works--so let's say we get to the debt ceiling, McCarthy likely does some sort of negotiating pass with Biden and it goes nowhere. He gives the private nod to the moderate Republicans they can vote on a discharge petition to bring it to the floor, it passes, cool debt ceiling raised. Now what do the obstructors do? They have the right to subject McCarthy to a Speaker vote at any time under their existing agreements, why wouldn't they hold that over his head and say "you need to committee strip any Republican who voted for the discharge petition." Which he won't want to do, since those are more his allies than the obstructors, but if he doesn't, he could lose his Speakership.

I don't really see how these deals are going to be feasible, or McCarthy's management of the House, frankly.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Just as an example--quick scanning of recent reporting show at least a dozen Republican defense hawks who have said no vote will pass 218 (threshold to win a floor vote) that cuts defense spending. That basically implicitly says any deal McCarthy has agreed to there simply can't pass, at least not without...a weird coalition of Freedom Caucus Republicans with the entire Democratic caucus, which also just won't happen since Joe Biden wants to raise defense spending and the Democrats will vote how he tells them to on that.

[Jacob]

Maybe some of the hostage takers will die, be removed by scandals, be bribed (legally or illegally), have a change of heart, or whatever before push comes to shove. Maybe not (most likely not), but that's a problem for Future McCarthy. Today McCarthy is needs to cross the finish line.

[Razgovory]

Well, this guarantees a government shutdown in the future.

[OttoVonBismarck]

McCarthy is perilously close, but with some drama.

Apparently Gaetz and Boebert agreed to vote present (which they did), along with Rosendale who DID NOT, but instead voted Jordan again. Basically, choosing to embarrass McCarthy on the floor again. This means McCarthy ends up with 216 with 2 presents, so he was 1 vote short of the Speakership on this round, or he would have had the Speakership had Rosendale voted present.

[OttoVonBismarck]

They tried to get Matt Gaetz to change his vote at the end, and in the brouhaha over his refusal Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama had to be pulled away from him--it looked like he was preparing to hit him lol.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Amazing. Never in my life did I think I'd spend Friday night watching CPSAN. It's better than fucking HBO tonight.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Gaetz will lose interest once we reach round 18.

[OttoVonBismarck]

So GOP started a motion to adjourn until Monday, but then midway through the voting, started to vote AGAINST their own motion. They think they've flipped Gaetz's vote and will go for another Speaker vote tonight.

[HisMajestyBOB]

If Gaetz is the deciding vote against again, and all other Reps murder him live on CSPAN, would anyone actually get convicted?

[HisMajestyBOB]

Looks like they've finally got it.
15th times the charm.
Or, Gaetz is satisfied with 15.