2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD

[Sheilbh]

This may just be my perception and total nonsense. But I suspect Long Island is a place where they absolutely do care if someone's lying about relatives dying in 9/11.

[Admiral Yi]

This may just be my perception and total nonsense. But I suspect Long Island is a place where they absolutely do care if someone's lying about relatives dying in 9/11.

Trump upended a lot of perceptions about deeply held Republican values.  Honoring the military (McCain), families of dead soldiers, the pope, etc.

[Sheilbh]

Sure - but this isn't a district that Trump ever won, Santos only won by 55/45% and my comment was more about Long Island voters, not Republican voters because it's not a solid Republican district.

Although I'm not even sure on those specific points. McCain was not ever really loved by the GOP base, he was the best of a bad bunch in 2008 and they far preferred Palin. Trump mocked/attacked the families of dead Muslim soldiers which I think is an important distinction. And I don't think Republicans ever really cared about the Pope (not least because until relatively recently, Catholics voted Democrat).

I think Trump represents a strand that has always existed in the modern GOP - albeit one that was not normally the face of the party and about which the traditional WASPy elite and neo-cons slightly held their nose. I think Trump upended less than he consummated.

[grumbler]

The GOP voters who "far preferred Palin" were not the base in 2008 like they are now.  I think that you are correct, though, that Trump simply activated an already-existing strand of thought in the Republican arty, and made it okay to support despicable policies and politicians behind the gig leaf of MAGA/"America First."  For Republicans today, the ends justify almost any means, and that's fairly new.

[Admiral Yi]

Sure - but this isn't a district that Trump ever won, Santos only won by 55/45% and my comment was more about Long Island voters, not Republican voters because it's not a solid Republican district.

Although I'm not even sure on those specific points. McCain was not ever really loved by the GOP base, he was the best of a bad bunch in 2008 and they far preferred Palin. Trump mocked/attacked the families of dead Muslim soldiers which I think is an important distinction. And I don't think Republicans ever really cared about the Pope (not least because until relatively recently, Catholics voted Democrat).

I think Trump represents a strand that has always existed in the modern GOP - albeit one that was not normally the face of the party and about which the traditional WASPy elite and neo-cons slightly held their nose. I think Trump upended less than he consummated.

Honoring the military didn't use to be about only the ones you like.  Catholics IMO have been voting Republican since the 70s.  Oppostion to forced busing was from blue collar "ethnic whites."  Look at the composition of the court.  Catholics are huge on right to life.

I concede that a Republican ideology focused largely on pure opposition to anything Democratic probably starts with Gingrich, and I was going to say that embracing alt-truth was started by Trump but that really started with climate denying, which predates Trump.

[Sheilbh]

Honoring the military didn't use to be about only the ones you like. 

Unless they're John Kerry, say

Catholics IMO have been voting Republican since the 70s.  Oppostion to forced busing was from blue collar "ethnic whites."  Look at the composition of the court.  Catholics are huge on right to life.

White Catholics mostly since the 70s were a pretty big swing vote/bellwether.

They went for Reagan and voted GOP in the 80s, they swung back to Clinton in the 90s, then to Bush in the 2000s. White Catholics went narrowly for McCain in 2008 and then swung more strongly to Romney and then Trump (falling back a little in 2020).

They're a really important part of the GOP coalition, especially at an elite level because Catholics (including a large number of converts) have provided a lot of the intellectual meat of the conservative legal project. But they didnt' move to the GOP in the 70s and stay there; they moved to the GOP in the 2010s. What's unclear to me is why. It seems like it could be because Catholic identity hardened. Fewer people who are relatively non-observant cultural Catholics identify as Catholics, possibly in response to a shift from an American Church that included more culturally open, Vatican 2 leaders to more strident statements on politics and a shift to Ratzinger bishops and cardinals - which may shift back with Francis' appointments making the cultural Catholic feel more welcome. Or it might be that there's been a swing in that group as a whole.

But all through that time there are lots of Latino Catholics and Black Catholics who didn't start voting GOP and those groups have been about 20-35% of the Catholic vote for that entire time.

I concede that a Republican ideology focused largely on pure opposition to anything Democratic probably starts with Gingrich, and I was going to say that embracing alt-truth was started by Trump but that really started with climate denying, which predates Trump.

I think Gingrich is important - but I don't know if that's where it starts, if only because I think Gingrich winning the leadership is the end of a process. He had set up the Conservative Opportunity Society, helped fundraise and support selected candidates who backed him in many races - as well as building support with existing Congressmen. He did a lot of work either establishing something or working from a base that already existed.

Honestly I think the end of the Cold War (and victory in it) is a big part of it. I think it removes a shackle of forced responsibility on American politics.

[Valmy]

Gingrich is kind of weird because he made lots of policy promises on his "Contract with America" (many of which I was an enthusiastic supporter for at the time) and he ended up fulfilling some because of the surprising cooperation of Bill Clinton. Yet despite that hating Clinton with a blinding passion and trying to destroy him turned out to be mainly what he and his coalition cared about, which wasn't really what many Americans thought they were voting for when they put a huge Republican Majority into power in 1994. And really that seems to be the main Republican "policy" issue from then on. The Democrats are evil and want to destroy America...oh and tax cuts we can't afford that won't actually cut taxes for the overwhelming majority of tax payers.

Ok that is not really fair to Dubya who did have a whole slate of policy things he wanted to do (and then went against many of them after 9/11). He is kind of the exception.

[Sheilbh]

Maybe his mom was one of those who inhaled a whole bunch of debris dust on 9/11 and later died of cancer?

( j/k )

It looks like he tried this defence - again there's no evidence it's true

Noah Shachtman
@NoahShachtman
NEW: Despite George Santos' assertion that his mother worked within the World Trade Center -- and died of a 9/11-related illness -- @RollingStone could find no employment records that would place her in or around the towers on September 11th.

[Zanza]

The GOP does not have enough discipline to vote for McCarthy as speaker.

[grumbler]

The GOP does not have enough discipline to vote for McCarthy as speaker.

Alas, it's because McCarthy isn't quite Nazi enough, so the holdouts want at least Attila the Hun.  One of the leaders of the Republican rebels is Bob Good, who used to be my congressman before redistricting.  He is an utter moron dedicated to winning the war against unAmerican cultural values (like secular education).  Good is bad and can only make the country worse.

[Zanza]

The party seems dysfunctional. If they cannot even agree on a speaker, how much common legislative ground do they actually have?

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think McCarthy is basically fucked. Up to this point, incoming Republican leaders have always had enough of a margin that Bob Goods and such couldn't block, but the margin is so narrow now, and the hardcore elements of the Freedom Caucus so recalcitrantly stupid, that I think there is literally nothing McCarthy can do to get to < 5 defections (which is what he needs--assuming Jeffries doesn't let some of his people vote present.)

This means McCarthy won't be Speaker. But who will be? The thing is the rebels can block McCarthy, but when you flip it and start pushing for an extremist candidate, what is their answer when 5 or more moderate Republicans refuse to vote for that person?

It is obvious they are angling for Jim Jordan, who is a pretty ghoulish and terrible person and extremely far right--but, that being said, he is "more adult" than the rebels themselves. He was basically them 10 years ago, but in the last 4-6 years he has started working more with the party leadership and behaving, which may be enough to convince any moderates to vote for him. He is definitely the farthest right candidate I think can pass through, but I'm not sure that means he actually can. You get into a point where some of the mainstream GOP may feel like saying fuck no because they don't want to just cave to the minority of their caucus.

I really can't predict what happens--the bigger thing is, however it ends up, this will not be a U.S. House that is capable of doing any meaningful legislation, and it wouldn't shock me if things like the debt ceiling increase require a discharge petition to occur.

[Valmy]

So McCarthy failed on every vote today eh? Bizarre.

But surely they will come back tomorrow and restore order right?

Meanwhile it seems like Democratic discipline is firm. Nobody breaking to bail McCarthy out. That is a good sign for our new leader, this Jefferies guy.

I am also a little surprised that of all the Texas Republicans only Chip Roy is drinking the crazy sauce. Usually our best and brightest are at the forefront of stuff like this. The rest of the country is becoming more insane than Texas Republicans.

[HVC]

Read some dems brought popcorn to troll the GOP

[Admiral Yi]

Meanwhile it seems like Democratic discipline is firm. Nobody breaking to bail McCarthy out.

I wonder if there is a candidate who would be agreeable to both the anti-Trump wing of the GOP and the Democrats.