2nd Trump Senate Trial and the January 6 commission

[alfred russel]

The idea that there is fucking ANYTHING the Senate could be doing that is more important then addressing the fact that the President tried to enact a fucking coup is just hilarious.

I'll say this before Tuesday and we get the results of the election. This is completely wrong. There are only two things worth doing: doing things that achieve results, and doing things that achieve electoral advantage. The trial only achieved a Trump acquittal and it looks like now that no republican is paying much of a price for supporting Trump. Certainly not in a competitive senate race.

Biden won the popular vote by over 4% and got over 300 electoral votes. By the standards of our polarized times, that was a massacre. And yet he only won 25 states: in a massive democratic year, democrats are going to have to win senate seats in states that went for Trump when he was at low ebb or they will be in a permanent minority. Ominiously, in 2020, democrats didn't take a single senate seat in a Trump state and lost one in a Biden state. It was a strong sign that campaigning against Trump doesn't work downballot even with Trump leading the ticket, and he may never be on a ballot again.

I don't know what is going to happen on Tuesday, but none of the very competitive states are in Trump 2020 states: we are mostly focused on Senate races in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire; all of which are among the 25 states Biden won. Maybe there will be a surprise but Republicans are likely to sweep the Trump 2020 states and pick off a number of Biden 2020 states.

Your top priority may be holding a senate trial to convict Trump but that is a shit way to win senate seats in trump states. Hell even in the most ardent Trump states, you have a legitimately election denying republican house member that is surprisingly competitive in a race for New York governor. Schumer saying that is top priority being "climate climate climate" may have also played well to the democratic base and helped him avoid a primary challenge but it also won't win in trump states.

Luckily the democrats can coast off of the republican massacre of 2018, but that just means that they have no opportunity to make up ground in 2024 if they lose the majority this time--and in 2024 they will likely lose ground even with a good cycle.

[Berkut]

I love that you are showing up now to setup for a GOP win, so you can then turn around and say "SEE I TOLD YOU SO!"

[alfred russel]

I love that you are showing up now to setup for a GOP win, so you can then turn around and say "SEE I TOLD YOU SO!"

I made a mental note of a few arguments from much earlier including early 2021 that i intend to bring out as part of the "I told you so". Absolutely not something from the Friday before the election. Right now i'm just reading polling numbers and venting how absolutely brain dead the strategy has been that has set everything up for what is going to happen on Tuesday.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Continuing to think political strategy minutiae explain large scale cultural changes.