Iranian Protests

[Valmy]

My response: show me.

Fair. Let's see what happens.

[Valmy]

Not to ruin the "Europe is a pro-theocracy bastion" narrative, but:

Good to see. I mean not the violence, of course. But that there are people in the West taking notice of the protest and its causes.

[The Minsky Moment]

The regime's pseudo-democratic elements give it staying power that a purely authoritarian dictatorship might lack. Factional politics have to be negotiated but the regime could respond by easing enforcement of the hijab, making a show of cracking down on corruption, maybe even loosening the bit somewhat on reformist oriented politicians.  And by carrying out repressions on the more radical opponents. 

[Jacob]

There is no widespread urban base of opposition to the Islamic Republic, there is widespread opposition among a small minority of urban Iranians, mostly those with higher educational attainment.

That's probably true; I'm not denying it. I'm merely stating that if such a movement arose, the regime could not count on rural sympathies to survive it.

Read a thing from the Danish ambassador in Tehran saying that from their observation the protests have not seemed to engender wider support. While they appear intense in social media they typically number in the 100s not 1000s.

[viper37]

I generally feel like Muslims (in this sense) are like Pilgrims. They might flee being persecuted, but that doesn't mean they become progressive. They just don't want to be persecuted themselves. That doesn't change them into becoming generally permissive.

I mean, it's religion. It's not like there isn't a well established history of how, generally, religious groups act under these circumstances.

Progressive may have different meaning depending on were you come from (Edit: also "when").

An American progressive would be economically left leaning, hold anti-abortion views and be critical of State mixing with religion, like forbidding gay marriage/civil unions.

A muslim progressive raised in a strict sharia country would be very different.  He might not be keen on abortion.  He would certainly view homosexuality as a perversion.  He would be a devout muslim.  But he would not believe in stoning a woman for adultery, he would believe that women should have the right to study, he might even be against capital punishment for most offense.  He would still be enraged at seeing a depiction of Muhammad kissing another man and see it as an offense to his faith, but he would not stab anyone for it.

By comparison, I would see Pilgrims as being religious radicals who were persecuted in their own country for being too radical.  Not because they allowed their women to read or treated them like human being instead of cattle. Very different situation here.

[Valmy]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63058096

So...apparently the Iranian regime has decided to blame the Kurds for all of this.

Thirteen killed in Iraq as Iran attacks Kurdish groups blamed for protests

Thirteen people have been killed in Iraq's Kurdistan Region, officials say, as Iran launched missiles and armed drones at what it said were bases of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups.

A pregnant woman was reportedly among those who died in the strikes.

Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps said it hit "separatist terrorists" who had supported recent "riots".

Anti-government protests have swept across Iran since the death in custody of a Kurdish woman there 12 days ago.

Mahsa Amini, 22, from the north-western city of Saqez, was visiting in Tehran when she was detained by morality police for allegedly violating the strict law requiring women to cover their hair with a hijab, or headscarf.

The police said Ms Amini collapsed at a detention centre after suffering sudden heart failure. But her family have dismissed that and alleged that she was beaten by officers. She died in hospital following three days in a coma.

Kurdish human rights group Hengaw said on Monday that 18 Kurdish protesters had been killed by security forces, 898 others injured and more than 1,000 arrested as Iranian authorities sought to suppress the dissent in the region and elsewhere.

Another group, Iran Human Rights, has put the nationwide toll among protesters at 76, while state media have reported that 41 people have died, including security personnel and pro-government militiamen.

Iranian authorities have blamed the unrest on "rioters" linked to "foreign enemies" and accused armed Iranian Kurdish opposition groups operating in neighbouring Iraq of infiltrating Kurdish areas of Iran to "sow insecurity".

On Wednesday, the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps said it had struck the main bases of Komala, the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) and the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), with "precision-guided missiles and assault drones" for the third time in four days.

The strikes would continue until the threat was "decisively" removed, the force warned.

Komala confirmed that 10 drones landed the Zargwez area, PAK said it headquarters in Sherawa was hit, and the PDKI said its bases and headquarters in Koy Sanjaq were struck.

"Attacks on opposition groups through the Islamic Republic of Iran's missiles, under any pretext, is an incorrect stance which promotes a misleading interpretation of the course of events," the Kurdistan Regional Government said in a statement.

Iraq's federal government also condemned the strikes, while the UN mission in the country warned Iran that "rocket diplomacy is a reckless act with devastating consequences".

The US said Iran "cannot deflect blame from its internal problems and the legitimate grievances of its population with attacks across its borders".

So I guess if the going gets tough, blame the ethnic minorities.

[crazy canuck]

One of the largest demonstrations I have seen in this city is going on now.  People are lined up on both sides of the main road going through the downtown core - from the entrance to Stanley Park to past the art gallery.  For people not familiar with those landmarks it is several kilometres.

[Malthus]

One of the largest demonstrations I have seen in this city is going on now.  People are lined up on both sides of the main road going through the downtown core - from the entrance to Stanley Park to past the art gallery.  For people not familiar with those landmarks it is several kilometres.

There was a huge demonstration in Richmond Hill (a suburb of Toronto that has a heavy Persian population). Some 50K.

This issue has serious traction here. Probably because there is a large expat community, who are unusually united in support.

[Josquius]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63058096

So...apparently the Iranian regime has decided to blame the Kurds for all of this.

So I guess if the going gets tough, blame the ethnic minorities.

They are kind of right here though right? These protests were centred in Kurdistan. Though they spread quite a bit beyond that now it seems.

[Valmy]

I mean it started because of the murder of a Kurdish woman, so I get why they would want to portray themselves as the victims of a Kurdish plot.

[Jacob]

Protests spread to petro-workers: https://twitter.com/KhosroKalbasi/status/1579411375449083905

Also saw a thing where hackers put the names of murdered women on national TV.

[Sheilbh]

Footage of Evin prison on fire:
https://twitter.com/FridaGhitis/status/1581349672752656386?s=20&t=RCy4K0cNf9_HSNch2DXxKA

Looks like it might be getting stormed?

[OttoVonBismarck]

I'm seeing on Twitter that the IRGC put out a statement that some sort of fight broke out in the sewing center inside the prison, which resulted in a fire. Locals are apparently clashing with security services in an attempt to get into the prison, to save prisoners from the fire. Some Iranian activists are claiming that the fire was intentionally set by the regime to kill the dissidents inside, and that they are mass executing the prisoners via gunfire. Obviously impossible to say what is going on in the moment with the general information fog in Iran.

[Jacob]

Effigies of Iranian mullahs have appeared hanging off bridges in various Iranian cities

[Jacob]

Mahabad Governor's Office on fire: https://twitter.com/i/status/1585554851634757634