Swedish general elections

[Zanza]

Voted for Andersson as she is the only one  I know.

[Threviel]

I just voted. For the first time in my life I did not vote for a party with views I can proudly stand behind, but rather for the least bad option. It was a very difficult choice with both sides having good and bad views.

[Threviel]

Preliminary results with 85% of districts counted is a very slim majority of 175 to 174 for the conservative/liberal/nationalist side against the social democrat/liberal/socialist side.

Still possible with a swing, but slow counting districts and late postal votes tend to favour the right.

The nationalists ended up 2nd biggest and biggest on the right side, will be interesting to see them argue over who gets to sit in the government.

The traditional conservative/liberal party is led by a, more or less, clown. Had it been led by a competent leader they would have won a landslide, but here we are.

The social democrat leader is competent, but her support parties are a disgrace and it's their (mostly the greens) politics that cost the left the win.

I'll go to sleep now, hopefully tomorrow we'll have a clearer winner, left or right, what we need in these times is stability and responsible government.

[The Brain]

These are the parties the leaders in the poll represent, numbered from the top, and the results with 95% of districts counted:

1. Social Democrats 30.5%
2. Moderates (conservatives) 19.1%
3. Sweden Democrats (anti-immigration party) 20.6%
4. Center (former farmers' party now somewhat unclear what they are) 6.7%
5. Communists 6.6%
6. Christian Democrats 5.4%
7. Liberals (right of center party) 4.6%
8. Greens 5.0%

[Josquius]

Interesting to see the right being hijacked by crazies there too, only with the democratic system the  conservatives who remain in control of their brains aren't dragged along for the ride.

[crazy canuck]

who forms government?

[Jacob]

What do likely coalitions look like? Are the Center and Liberal Parties likely to support the Moderates?

How acceptable is it for other parties to form a coalition with the Sweden Democrats?

[Threviel]

Let's everyone remember that SD is the successor to the old (the actual 1930s old) nazi party. They are not a Norwegian/Danish style populist party and they are not exactly Trumpian either. Keep that in mind.

Government will most probably be the moderates (conservative/liberal mix) and the Christian Democrats.
 
They will need and probably get the support of SD and one of the two liberal parties.

Everyone else, and many inside the possible government parties, especially the liberals, hate and despise SD and think that negotiating with them is taboo.

SD is big enough to demand to be a part of government, if that happens the support of the liberals will go away and we'll have a crisis.

[Sheilbh]

Is it right the analysis I've read that the Moderates signalled openness to working with the SD and moved right? And, not for the first time, it seems that voters would rather have the original than a faint imitation.

As an aside interesting that this is another European election (Italy to go even further from Lega to FdI) where the story we've all had about the collapse of the centre left seems to apply to the centre right. If 2010s were about PASOKification maybe now we're in an age of far or radical right replacing the centre right?

[Threviel]

Well. The moderates have gone from a 25-30% party to a 20ish % party. Significant drop.

The social democrats have gone from a 45% party to a 30% party, also a significant drop.

SD mostly took voters from the social democrats in previous elections, this time mostly from the moderates.

I'm not entirely sure that the Swedish experience is really comparable.

SD has risen because of perceived problems with the generous Swedish immigration policy going back decades. We must remember that at least since the late eighties that immigration policy has had a very weak democratic legitimacy. There's very little data available, but what is points to that a majority of the population has always been against the large immigration.

That's it really, the big parties didn't address the issue and SD did and they combed their hair and kicked out the skinheads and here we are.

There's no religious conflict, no internal ethnic conflict, no class conflict, no nationalist fervour and very little modern style populist conservatism, no weird conspiracy theories. It's a pure protest vote on immigration.

I'm not sure it can be compared to the situation in other countries even though on the surface it looks the same.

[Admiral Yi]

Let's everyone remember that SD is the successor to the old (the actual 1930s old) nazi party. They are not a Norwegian/Danish style populist party and they are not exactly Trumpian either. Keep that in mind.

Took me a bit to realize you were talking about the Sweden Democrats and not the Social Democrats.

[Jacob]

Interesting, thanks for the analysis Threviel.

I'm guessing Slargos is pleased with this result, whereever he is.

[Admiral Yi]

What is the Sweden Democrats position on immigration?  Mass expulsions?  Some reduction?  Mandatory language/assimilation classes?  Cutting benefits?

How significant is the skinhead faction?

[crazy canuck]

Let's everyone remember that SD is the successor to the old (the actual 1930s old) nazi party. They are not a Norwegian/Danish style populist party and they are not exactly Trumpian either. Keep that in mind.

Government will most probably be the moderates (conservative/liberal mix) and the Christian Democrats.
 
They will need and probably get the support of SD and one of the two liberal parties.

Everyone else, and many inside the possible government parties, especially the liberals, hate and despise SD and think that negotiating with them is taboo.

SD is big enough to demand to be a part of government, if that happens the support of the liberals will go away and we'll have a crisis.

The Social Democrats are the Nazis, and they got 30% of the vote?

[Jacob]

The Social Democrats are the Nazis, and they got 30% of the vote?

No, the Sweden Democrats are the Nazis and they got 20% of the vote.