Is There 'A Hill You're Prepared To Die On' ?

[Sheilbh]

1) How significant is the environmental impact of manufacturing cars? If we assume that people will drive just as much (so the gas usage is the same) whether they do so in many or few cars, does having many car significantly impact the environmental impact?

My understanding from this is that for an average driver it is broadly environmentally better to buy a second hand gas guzzler than to buy a new car even if it's electric. At the minute and it slightly depends where it's manufactured - and also where you use it (basically I think the issue is how much coal goes into manufacturing and charging it). It also depends on the battery lifecycle and manufacture which, again, varies hugely.

There's a carbon brief report that goes into this and it's really complicated but in the UK with our current power mix and if you were driving around 7,800 miles per year (which is a little bit more than average) then a Nissan Leaf would pay off its carbon debt after about 4 years v a second hand car (2 years v a new ICE car).

It would obviously be different for, say, an Uber driver who'll drive a lot more.

Edit: But it would be better in, say, Norway or France where they have cleaner hyrdo or nuclear energy, but take longer in, say, Poland or Australia where they still use a lot of coal. Basically you get rid of the tailpipe emissions but there's still the production of energy emissions which vary a lot.

[Barrister]

1) How significant is the environmental impact of manufacturing cars? If we assume that people will drive just as much (so the gas usage is the same) whether they do so in many or few cars, does having many car significantly impact the environmental impact?

My understanding from this is that for an average driver it is broadly environmentally better to buy a second hand gas guzzler than to buy a new car even if it's electric. At the minute and it slightly depends where it's manufactured - and also where you use it (basically I think the issue is how much coal goes into manufacturing and charging it). It also depends on the battery lifecycle and manufacture which, again, varies hugely.

There's a carbon brief report that goes into this and it's really complicated but in the UK with our current power mix and if you were driving around 7,800 miles per year (which is a little bit more than average) then a Nissan Leaf would pay off its carbon debt after about 4 years v a second hand car (2 years v a new ICE car).

It would obviously be different for, say, an Uber driver who'll drive a lot more.

Edit: But it would be better in, say, Norway or France where they have cleaner hyrdo or nuclear energy, but take longer in, say, Poland or Australia where they still use a lot of coal. Basically you get rid of the tailpipe emissions but there's still the production of energy emissions which vary a lot.

I feel like that analysis might make sense for an individual, but would break down when looked at society as a whole.  I mean we obviously can't all go out and purchase two year old used vehicles - somebody needs to keep making new ones.  If you're only buying used vehicles you're just shifting the environmental impact onto the person who bought it new - you're not making that environmental impact go away.

[Oexmelin]

That's a fair point. I absolutely agree that the desire for cars is not purely the result of clever marketing but because they fulfill a range of needs ranging from the fundamnetal to the more complex.

It's probably too late now, but again, this never was my point - just a caricature of it.

[DGuller]

I think an obvious argument why underutilization of personal cars has an environmental impact is that you need more of them.  The more a single car is used, the less cars you need to satisfy the transportation requirements.  The need for a driver to ferry his own car is certainly adding to the inefficiency.

Yeah. I guess there are two components:

1) How significant is the environmental impact of manufacturing cars? If we assume that people will drive just as much (so the gas usage is the same) whether they do so in many or few cars, does having many car significantly impact the environmental impact?

2) Conversely, if people used cars more efficiently for transportation (i.e. cars were used more hours a day, more people are in the cars when they're used) there could in theory be reductions in miles travelled and thus gas burned? I wonder how much of a reduction that would be?

On point 1, quick Google search without verification of bullshittiness states that 80%-90% of environmental impact comes from using the car, so presumably the rest comes from building it.  I'd add the cost of infrustructure like garage space and street parking space to that, though, but I have no idea what it contributes.  In addition to this, some maintenance is time-dependent rather than mile-dependent, and even mile-dependent maintenance can stretch more with less start-stops, but I don't know if it's more than a rounding error in the big picture.

As far as having more passengers per ride, I think the math is more clear there.  Extra passengers add very little to fuel consumption, so doubling the occupancy of moving vehicles will more or less halve the total fuel consumption.

[Valmy]

1) How significant is the environmental impact of manufacturing cars? If we assume that people will drive just as much (so the gas usage is the same) whether they do so in many or few cars, does having many car significantly impact the environmental impact?

My understanding from this is that for an average driver it is broadly environmentally better to buy a second hand gas guzzler than to buy a new car even if it's electric. At the minute and it slightly depends where it's manufactured - and also where you use it (basically I think the issue is how much coal goes into manufacturing and charging it). It also depends on the battery lifecycle and manufacture which, again, varies hugely.

There's a carbon brief report that goes into this and it's really complicated but in the UK with our current power mix and if you were driving around 7,800 miles per year (which is a little bit more than average) then a Nissan Leaf would pay off its carbon debt after about 4 years v a second hand car (2 years v a new ICE car).

It would obviously be different for, say, an Uber driver who'll drive a lot more.

Edit: But it would be better in, say, Norway or France where they have cleaner hyrdo or nuclear energy, but take longer in, say, Poland or Australia where they still use a lot of coal. Basically you get rid of the tailpipe emissions but there's still the production of energy emissions which vary a lot.

What about a used electric car? Tons of those around now.

[Barrister]

What about a used electric car? Tons of those around now.

There are?

I just looked on classified site kijiji - in the Edmonton area there are 11,607 used vehicles listed for sale.  Of those 11,607 vehicles a whopping 12 of them are electric.

[Valmy]

Ok maybe tons was a bit of an exaggeration but they are certainly around if you want one, there are well over 1,000 in the Austin area. I plan on getting a used one for my next car, as I never buy new. Besides comparing constructing a new vehicle vs. an already existing one is a bit of an odd thing to compare. Surely we should be comparing new cars or used cars to each other, right?

But also his calculation seems to be based on the idea that all electrical generation is going to be done via coal plants indefinitely into the future, and if that is the case then who gives a fuck about how we move around? We are going to be doing really terrible on CO2 emissions regardless. So we should plan around what would be marginally better in a scenario where we continue to rely on coal plants for all of our energy generation?

[Sheilbh]

But also his calculation seems to be based on the idea that all electrical generation is going to be done via coal plants indefinitely into the future, and if that is the case then who gives a fuck about how we move around? We are going to be doing really terrible on CO2 emissions regardless.

Not at all - I just said it varies depending on the energy mix where it's manufactured, where the battery's manufactured and where it's used (plus usage). So there is no straightforward answer the example I gave was one done by carbon brief of a specific vehicle, with a specific average use in a spectific country. If it's an electric vehicle made and the battery made in China and you live in Australia and you drive less than average then it's a obviously very diffierent calculation.

I think you're wildly over-interpreting what I said

[Valmy]

But also his calculation seems to be based on the idea that all electrical generation is going to be done via coal plants indefinitely into the future, and if that is the case then who gives a fuck about how we move around? We are going to be doing really terrible on CO2 emissions regardless.

Not at all - I just said it varies depending on the energy mix where it's manufactured, where the battery's manufactured and where it's used (plus usage). So there is no straightforward answer the example I gave was one done by carbon brief of a specific vehicle, with a specific average use in a spectific country. If it's an electric vehicle made and the battery made in China and you live in Australia and you drive less than average then it's a obviously very diffierent calculation.

I think you're wildly over-interpreting what I said

Well if I could read your mind and know exactly what you were saying I wouldn't be asking questions about it would I? I don't think I am saying anything wildly crazy one way or the other. They seem like important things to consider. But maybe that is just me.

Besides I have a personal interest in this question as I am going to be buying a used car in a few years and had planned to buy an electric one, so I wanted to make sure I properly understood the implications of what you were saying so I could make a correct choice.

[Grey Fox]

Besides I have a personal interest in this question as I am going to be buying a used car in a few years and had planned to buy an electric one, so I wanted to make sure I properly understood the implications of what you were saying so I could make a correct choice.

The current used market for electric cars is all inferior technology with poor autonomy when the battery was new & on models that are too small for our North American taste.

Maybe in a few years it'll be better tho.

[Barrister]

Ok maybe tons was a bit of an exaggeration but they are certainly around if you want one. I plan on getting a used one for my next car, as I never buy new. Besides comparing constructing a new vehicle vs. an already existing one is a bit of an odd thing to compare. Surely we should be comparing new cars or used cars to each other, right?

But also his calculation seems to be based on the idea that all electrical generation is going to be done via coal plants indefinitely into the future, and if that is the case then who gives a fuck about how we move around? We are going to be doing really terrible on CO2 emissions regardless. So we should plan around what would be marginally better in a scenario where we continue to rely on coal plants for all of our energy generation?

There might be more in Texas (electrics aren't as efficient in cold weather, plus US has more subsidies), but I think electrics are still fairly scarce on the ground.  Take the Tesla Model 3 - it may have started being sold in 2017, but only started selling in any real quantities in the second half of 2018.  And with the supply crunch used vehicles are selling at really high prices right now.

I'd like my next vehicle to be electric, but my next vehicle needs to be a truck also.  And with the production of electric trucks just starting right now we're just at the wrong point in the production cycle to be able to buy a used electric truck any time soon.

[Tamas]

My company is planning to introduce a "bonus" scheme where you can lease an electric car from their partner company as a salary deduction ie. you'd be paying for it by the company reducing your pre-tax salary.

I would probably consider it, because the tax on my old 2 liter petrol car is getting quite ridiculous (funnily enough if you have the money to maintain a car from 1970 or older you are tax free, never mind the environmental standards of those engines), and with the switch of regular unleaded to E10 which my engine cannot deal with, it could potentially end up not THAT more expensive than maintaining the current car.

Unfortunately, however, there are like two charging stations in a 10 minutes driving circle around us, and living on the second floor I can't just plug it in at home outside on the street.

BTW one thing about electric cars: I remember reading in passing that their batteries (like all batteries) lose efficiency over time which should be a consideration when buying used ones. Isn't that going to be a big problem once everyone driving electric though (or even when everyone will be driven around by rented robot cars)? That's going to be a lot of very environment-unfriendly batteries having to be produced constantly.

[Barrister]

BTW one thing about electric cars: I remember reading in passing that their batteries (like all batteries) lose efficiency over time which should be a consideration when buying used ones. Isn't that going to be a big problem once everyone driving electric though (or even when everyone will be driven around by rented robot cars)? That's going to be a lot of very environment-unfriendly batteries having to be produced constantly.

It apparently gets worse - almost all electric vehicles were not designed to have the batteries replaced.  So after 8-10 years a lot of vehicles may have to be junked that are in otherwise fine mechanical shape because the batteries are so depleted.

[Sheilbh]

It apparently gets worse - almost all electric vehicles were not designed to have the batteries replaced.  So after 8-10 years a lot of vehicles may have to be junked that are in otherwise fine mechanical shape because the batteries are so depleted.

Somehow this is Apple's fault.

[Barrister]

It apparently gets worse - almost all electric vehicles were not designed to have the batteries replaced.  So after 8-10 years a lot of vehicles may have to be junked that are in otherwise fine mechanical shape because the batteries are so depleted.

Somehow this is Apple's fault.

Lies and slander!

You can replace the battery on your iPhone or iPad.