Aukus

[The Minsky Moment]

One thing that the NS2 affair shows up is a structural weakness in US foreign policy that crosses partisan boundaries and administrations; indeed the difficulties inherent in maintaining consistent policy across presidential administrations in the US system is a driver. Faced with difficult and intransigent problems like managing North Korea or containing Russia, there is a tendency to fall back on a combination of "managing" the problem by kicking it down the road and occasionally engaging in symbolic gestures like travel sanctions. The US never had a real policy on NS2 other than a rhetorical one, so the "shift" was not really a meaningful change in substance and the lack of return reflects the lack of policy impact in the first place.

[viper37]

How does this show that the US is unpredictable?

You just left Afghanistan rot and crumble under its own weight because that's what the population wanted.  5 years ago, a moron was elected promising to put US first and saying a big fuck you to everyone.  Now, he stands ready for round 2 and still has a good chance of returning to the presidency.  Then the new guy comes in and backstabs an ally.

This is why the US is unpredictable.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Keep in mind on its worst day I don't know that the U.S. has ever been as unreliable an ally as the French. I doubt the Poles have ever, or will ever, forget 1939.

[OttoVonBismarck]

France has always been the Jay Gatsby of Western diplomacy, behaves like a lout and a boor, fucks over everyone, but hey--Jay is cool, he throws the best parties and fucks the best women. You're not cool if you take issue with Jay. Likewise it's never "cool" for some reason to call out the endless examples of French diplomatic and strategic shittiness and selfishness, but even minor breaches by the United States are howled about with the fury of a typhoon.

[Berkut]

How does this show that the US is unpredictable?

You just left Afghanistan rot and crumble under its own weight because that's what the population wanted.  5 years ago, a moron was elected promising to put US first and saying a big fuck you to everyone.  Now, he stands ready for round 2 and still has a good chance of returning to the presidency.  Then the new guy comes in and backstabs an ally.

This is why the US is unpredictable.

Good job repeating exactly what I said, while cutting out my saying it so you could look like you said it instead?

[Sheilbh]

I don't know - I think France gets called out plenty here. I mentioned earlier the, in my view astute remark, take from a German IR academic that for France to be kicking off was a bit much given the way its spies, oil executives, arms dealers, diplomats and politicians have shafted friends and allies over the years. I mean France has literally couped countries to win back oil contracts.

I think that was the same sense in Johnson's remark that "some of our dearest friends in the world" should "donnez-moi un break" is similarly motivated by a sense that I think there's no chance France wouldn't do the exact same thing if it was in the US/UK's position. From my understand that's a position shared by officialdom and politicians alike so it's not just a Number 10 thing.

Edit: And on the British angle it looks like UK also looking to strengthen ties with Canada
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6187347

Britain is signalling its interest in working with the Canadian military in the Arctic by offering to take part in cold-weather exercises and bring in some of its more advanced capabilities — such as nuclear-powered submarines — to help with surveillance and defence in the Far North.

In a recent exclusive interview with CBC News, the United Kingdom's top military commander said his country is "keen to cooperate" and learn more about how to survive and fight in a cold, remote setting.

Gen. Sir Nick Carter said Britain would also like to "cooperate in terms of helping Canada do what Canada needs to do as an Arctic country."

[viper37]

Keep in mind on its worst day I don't know that the U.S. has ever been as unreliable an ally as the French. I doubt the Poles have ever, or will ever, forget 1939.

France declared war on Germany and mobilized its army.  England signed that pact too and didn't raise a finger either.  Neither country was ready despite multiple signs of what would happen, eventually.

[viper37]

Edit: And on the British angle it looks like UK also looking to strengthen ties with Canada
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6187347

Britain is signalling its interest in working with the Canadian military in the Arctic by offering to take part in cold-weather exercises and bring in some of its more advanced capabilities — such as nuclear-powered submarines — to help with surveillance and defence in the Far North.

In a recent exclusive interview with CBC News, the United Kingdom's top military commander said his country is "keen to cooperate" and learn more about how to survive and fight in a cold, remote setting.

Gen. Sir Nick Carter said Britain would also like to "cooperate in terms of helping Canada do what Canada needs to do as an Arctic country."

I'm not sure any government wants to buy another batch of UK submarines

[Duque de Bragança]

I don't know - I think France gets called out plenty here. I mentioned earlier the, in my view astute remark, take from a German IR academic that for France to be kicking off was a bit much given the way its spies, oil executives, arms dealers, diplomats and politicians have shafted friends and allies over the years. I mean France has literally couped countries to win back oil contracts.

I think that was the same sense in Johnson's remark that "some of our dearest friends in the world" should "donnez-moi un break" is similarly motivated by a sense that I think there's no chance France wouldn't do the exact same thing if it was in the US/UK's position. From my understand that's a position shared by officialdom and politicians alike so it's not just a Number 10 thing.

Edit: And on the British angle it looks like UK also looking to strengthen ties with Canada
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6187347

Britain is signalling its interest in working with the Canadian military in the Arctic by offering to take part in cold-weather exercises and bring in some of its more advanced capabilities — such as nuclear-powered submarines — to help with surveillance and defence in the Far North.

In a recent exclusive interview with CBC News, the United Kingdom's top military commander said his country is "keen to cooperate" and learn more about how to survive and fight in a cold, remote setting.

Gen. Sir Nick Carter said Britain would also like to "cooperate in terms of helping Canada do what Canada needs to do as an Arctic country."

You forgot the franglais prenez un grip adressed to France. 
Very close phonetically to the French "prenez en grippe" 

I guess he preferred Latin and Ancient Greek.

[grumbler]

France literally couldn't predict it - would other NATO (European members) have more advanced sight if the US decided to move in and replace them in a core part of their strategy in x part of the world. It was also an incredibly well kept secret that shocked analysts from everywhere as far as I can see. The one view I've not seen oon this is: "well that was predictable and as expected"

The only people who predicted it were the Australian analysts.  But, then, they had access to the actual decision-makers and knew what they were thinking.

Given that France was going to lose that contract, what would have been predictable was the Japanese picking it up, except that the Australian government unpredictably decided to go nuclear, and the US predictably agreed to share the technology.  That the US predictably didn't share the technology with countries it couldn't rely on to keep its secrets safe was, predictably, not an issue with a fellow member of the Five Eyes.

[grumbler]

You just left Afghanistan rot and crumble under its own weight because that's what the population wanted.  5 years ago, a moron was elected promising to put US first and saying a big fuck you to everyone.  Now, he stands ready for round 2 and still has a good chance of returning to the presidency.  Then the new guy comes in and backstabs an ally.

This is why the US is unpredictable.

Berkut did nothing of the sort.  The national Government of Afghanistan, without the involvement of Berkut at all, surrendered to the Taliban with barely a whimper.  The US government, predictably, didn't want to see American soldiers die for a government whose own citizens wouldn't risk death for.

That's why national interests are predictable.

[Zoupa]

France kicking up a fuss is making the best out of a bad situation. I keep hearing it's for national consumption but nobody in France cares about Australia. Imho it will have zero influence in any upcoming election.

What I believe is going on is French diplomats trying to make the case that you can't rely on the Anglos and to push for European defence. Recent and not so recent events have made the case for them.

Every crisis is an opportunity. I have every confidence in the Quai d'Orsay (and its myriad of irregulars) making the best of it.

[Berkut]

France kicking up a fuss is making the best out of a bad situation. I keep hearing it's for national consumption but nobody in France cares about Australia. Imho it will have zero influence in any upcoming election.

What I believe is going on is French diplomats trying to make the case that you can't rely on the Anglos and to push for European defence. Recent and not so recent events have made the case for them.

Every crisis is an opportunity. I have every confidence in the Quai d'Orsay (and its myriad of irregulars) making the best of it.

So the US radically increasing one of its allies ability to defend itself is somehow evidence that the US cannot be relied upon to defend its allies?

How does that make any sense at all?

If you broadly define the US, France, AUS, and the EU for that matter, as generally "allies" in the sense of shared values and global interests, then France (absent wanting a bunch of cash) ought to be looking at this as a net gain. Australia with a dozen Virginia class attack subs is, without question, better defended and a stronger ally then Australia with a dozen diesel Barracudas, or even a dozen nuke Barracudas at twice the cost.

So how does this outcome suggesting that the Anglos cannot be relied on?

I can see an argument to be made that France cannot be relied on to put their desire for piles of cash aside when it comes to defending their allies. That might be something for the EU to think about when the subject of Russian petro interests and Chinese markets comes up in the future.

[Zoupa]

I'm not engaging with your strawmen Berkut.

I'm simply saying that I think French diplomats will get a lot of mileage out of our allies amateurish displays.

[viper37]

That the US predictably didn't share the technology with countries it couldn't rely on to keep its secrets safe was,

if that was an actual worry in the US, no one would agree to work with Trump