Aukus

[Sheilbh]

And it starts - maybe. New Zealand which obviously will never have any interest in nuclear subs has said it's been made clear other countries might participate and they would be interested in joining to participate in the non-nuclear stuff.

[Jacob]

... so apparently Biden just acknowledged that the US handled the AUKUS and submarine thing clumsily, and apologized to Macron.

[garbon]

... so apparently Biden just acknowledged that the US handled the AUKUS and submarine thing clumsily, and apologized to Macron.

Makes sense. Allows for some face saving.

[Sheilbh]

And a little bit blame shifting as Biden said he was under the impression that the French knew a long time before  the contract wouldn't be going ahead. Which is maybe true - worst case is it's not and he's pushed responsibility to the Aussies who can handle it because they're getting new subs.

[Zoupa]

... so apparently Biden just acknowledged that the US handled the AUKUS and submarine thing clumsily, and apologized to Macron.

Say it ain't so! I was told the US handled the whole thing in a perfect manner, what with only wanting the very best for their Aussie buddies, not being concerned with anything as lowly as money.

Not like those perfidious French, who are only interested with cash and have shown themselves to be shit allies!

Why is Biden trying to repair relations with France if they're so untrustworthy? So weak.

Trump 2024.

[garbon]

This is derangement.

[Zoupa]

Relax, we're just shooting the shit here.

[Berkut]

Biden? Clumsy?

That seems hard to believe.

[garbon]

Relax, we're just shooting the shit here.

I don't fuck with guns.

[Sheilbh]

France released their official Indo-Pacific Strategy yesterday and needless to say they're not fully over AUKUS

Stuart Lau
@StuartKLau
Not the most urgent matter of the day, but France has officially removed Australia from its list of strategic partners.

The AUKUS deal "has led to a re-evaluation of the past strategic partnership," with future FR-AU cooperation to proceed "on a case-by-case basis."

[Sheilbh]

I said I thought the most interesting angle of AUKUS was the "future project" potential and reference to new technologies. It looks like we're starting to see that being fleshed out as Australia, UK and US have announced they're working together on developing hypersonic weapons.

I also think the new weapons bit is the piece that may make this attractive/sensible to create docks for other allies interested in the region (or helping support allies in responding to China). So they may not want to get involved on nuclear subs - but new hypersonic weapons or cyber capabilites are of interest etc.

[Zoupa]

Australia almost no chance to buy any submarine from current US building program, experts say.

Latest report to US Congress reveals the superpower will struggle to meet its own submarine-building targets for decades.

Australia has close to zero chance of getting a submarine from the United States' current program, experts say, as yet another report shows the US is struggling to meet its own needs.

Defence is facing a capability gap as the existing Collins-class fleet retires and hopes fade of getting a new submarine under the Aukus deal before 2040.

Under the Aukus deal, Australia will buy at least eight submarines from either the US or the United Kingdom.

Former defence minister Peter Dutton suggested the US might give Australia a couple of its boats, a suggestion that was largely dismissed.

The latest report to Congress on the progress of the US's shipbuilding efforts show the submarines "experienced cost growth" in the early part of the program, and now there's a shortage of spare parts, maintenance delays for existing boats, and concerns about the shipyards' capacity.

Complications including, but not limited to, the pandemic have seen delays in production of the US navy's Virginia-class submarines.

"Some observers have expressed concern about the industrial base's capacity for executing such a workload without encountering bottlenecks or other production problems in one or both of these programs," the report said.

The US is aiming to build its own fleet of at least 60 nuclear-powered boats, but the report released this week shows it will reach a minimum of 46 boats in 2028, 50 by 3032 and between 60 and 69 by 2052. It is trying to increase capacity, but will still struggle to meet its own targets for decades.

Shadow defence spokesperson Andrew Hastie, while in London, has challenged the UK to compete against the US to supply the first two submarines by 2030 by boosting its building capacity, but experts have also dismissed that idea.

Marcus Hellyer, a senior analyst at Australian Strategic Policy Institute said the "only way" Australia would get a nuclear-powered submarine by 2030 would be if the US gave us "one of their own boats". "But their numbers are declining when they want an increase," he said.

"The submarine taskforce [which will report in March next year] needs to look at all options, but at some point you have to draw a line and say this is just a distraction."

Hellyer said that meant any submarine Australia would buy was likely to be from the next generation of US submarines, which will start being bought in the mid 2030s and are set to be vastly more expensive.

He has estimated, based on the current model, the entire program to build eight submarines will cost $171bn in the end, including inflation.

Research presented to US Congress suggests the next model would cost at least AUD$3bn more (each) than the current model, pushing the price even higher.

Hellyer said that looking at the cost increase if Australia gets the newer boat was a way to illustrate the problem of planning to buy submarines from another country that was continually upgrading and evolving its own fleet.

"What's our philosophy here? Do we keep building one boat while the US moves on, and we're left with this orphan ... or do we move in lockstep with the US?," he said.

"That would mean our little fleet of eight boats could be different [models]."

Rex Patrick, former South Australian senator and submariner, said Australia "will not get submarines off the US line". "The US engage in operations all around the world and they're important operations and the US Navy is not going to cede a capability so that Australia can get submarines [so they can] dip their toe in the water," he said.

"All the publicly available material points to the US not providing us with a submarine."

Hellyer said there was also "no way" the UK could spare a submarine as it is only building seven of the Astute class (which is one of the options being considered for Australia) before it moves to a new model. "The UK is currently wrapping up its Astute program," he said. "They need to wrap that up to transfer the resources to the Dreadnaught program.

"They have no capacity to build us submarines."

There have been suggestions Australia could pay for the US or the UK to expand their production capacity.

"You can achieve anything with money," Patrick said. "But this is taxpayers' money."

Both Patrick and Hellyer said buying a conventional (non-nuclear powered) submarine from another country "off the shelf" would be another way to fill the capability gap.

Defence minister, Richard Marles, has consistently said he is keeping an open mind on the solution to the capability gap.

"As we go through the process now of looking at which solution we pursue, we also want not only to determine that solution but to work out is there any way in which that can be brought online much sooner than the 2040s and to the extent any capability gap is there, what are the means by which we can close it?" he said earlier this month.

"None of those questions have obvious answers. It's part of the work we're doing right now. But as we announce in the early part of next year as to what capability – or what submarine – we will be pursuing, we really want to have answers to all of those at that point in time."

Guardian Australia has contacted Marles's office for further comment.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/20/australia-almost-no-chance-to-buy-any-submarine-from-current-us-building-program-experts-say?CMP=share_btn_tw

    

[HVC]

Poor Australia.  Screwed over first by France then the US.

[Josquius]

Surely the UK has more than enough building capacity? Our problem tends to be more keeping the skills and facilities required to build this stuff when the numbers we need just don't support it naturally.

[Berkut]

Well, if a politician from South Australia has weighed in on US sub production capabilities and priorities, then I guess that pretty much closes the book on what is possible. He would certainly be the expert, for sure.