Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[Jacob]

Donald Tusk? Is Donald Tusk okay?

Superficially Meloni seems smart and charismatic, if only she wasn't fascist adjacent.

[Sheilbh]

Poland isn't G7.

I think Macron and Biden are probably the best of the G7. Although I think Meloni is very dangerous. Sunak and Scholz I feel aren't up to it. Trudeau - despite being the one in office longest - still feels a little insubstantial/lightweight. I have no strong views whatsoever on Kishida

[Tamas]

It's such a stupid French reflex to try and maintain a rapport with Russia. As if Germany was still a military threat.

[Jacob]

I just read a thing somewhere saying that Kishida is in trouble domestically. He may not be around for long.

[Sheilbh]

It's such a stupid French reflex to try and maintain a rapport with Russia. As if Germany was still a military threat.

I've said it before - and I'm guilty - but I think there is something to the French diplomat line I saw somewhere that the Brits are too relaxed and instinctively sympathetic with Turkey but normally right on Russia - and the French are the opposite.

I think it is also a part of the strategic autonomy/balancing power ambition, De Gaulle's vision of a Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals.

As I say I think Macron has been solid on Ukraine after the first month or so and I don't think that's changing any time soon on the substance.

[HVC]

says he'll invite Putin to 60th celebration of D-Day in June if he "commits to peace talks"

I also still think the 40s were 60 years ago, but I'm afraid we're ageing

Not sure it's a real offer. I think Macron's pretty solid on Ukraine now but it does seem a bit of a callback to early flailing at the start of the full scale invasion.

He's desperate to be the guy that brought peace to the east. Don't know if it's for his ego, internal political consumption, or a need for sense of French prestige and power.

[Zoupa]

It's such a stupid French reflex to try and maintain a rapport with Russia. As if Germany was still a military threat.

I've said it before - and I'm guilty - but I think there is something to the French diplomat line I saw somewhere that the Brits are too relaxed and instinctively sympathetic with Turkey but normally right on Russia - and the French are the opposite.

I think it is also a part of the strategic autonomy/balancing power ambition, De Gaulle's vision of a Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals.

As I say I think Macron has been solid on Ukraine after the first month or so and I don't think that's changing any time soon on the substance.

I think Ukraine is eventually going to win this war, and they'll remember who their friends were. It's all well and good to keep the assistance secret, but the average Ukrainian just knows that France is not sending much and their feckless president talks half the time about security concerns of russia, giving russia an off-ramp, wanting to talk to Putin etc etc ad nauseam.

It's an own goal, it's counterproductive to the narrative and it feels naive. Putin has internalized the loss of the West as partners for the next 20 years. It's not gonna happen, Macron. You're not gonna be the great statesman, presiding over the Treaty of Paris 2.0.

The Brits have had so much better comms/PR/discourse, it's not even close. Every Ukrainian loves the UK & BoJo, even if I'm pretty sure materially France and the UK have given roughly similar stuff.

[Zoupa]

It's such a stupid French reflex to try and maintain a rapport with Russia. As if Germany was still a military threat.

Yeah. There's just a huge segment of the population that's reflexively anti-american, hence sorta pro-russian. If you add the far-right and far-left, it's a wonder french assistance to Ukraine has amounted to anything at all. The kremlin narrative has penetrated public discourse to a shocking degree, including on established TV channels and newspapers.

[Zoupa]

says he'll invite Putin to 60th celebration of D-Day in June if he "commits to peace talks"

I also still think the 40s were 60 years ago, but I'm afraid we're ageing

Holy crap lol... Yikes. Yeah, I turned 45 earlier this year 

[Sheilbh]

I think Ukraine is eventually going to win this war, and they'll remember who their friends were. It's all well and good to keep the assistance secret, but the average Ukrainian just knows that France is not sending much and their feckless president talks half the time about security concerns of russia, giving russia an off-ramp, wanting to talk to Putin etc etc ad nauseam.

It's an own goal, it's counterproductive to the narrative and it feels naive. Putin has internalized the loss of the West as partners for the next 20 years. It's not gonna happen, Macron. You're not gonna be the great statesman, presiding over the Treaty of Paris 2.0.

I think you're probably right. I think in terms of material France (and Germany) are absolutely delivering. I think France, especially, also deserves great credit for shaping EU policy to Ukraine.

But I think in both cases it's taken a little bit of time to adjust and, from time to time, the sort of natural instincts of those states re-assert themselves. Germany will find its (substantial) aid accidentally lost in a quagmire of Bundeswehr bureaucracy; France will imagine itself settling the future of Europe with Russia.

The Brits have had so much better comms/PR/discourse, it's not even close. Every Ukrainian loves the UK & BoJo, even if I'm pretty sure materially France and the UK have given roughly similar stuff.

Yeah. In part I think Macron has acknowledge this and said his intention is for France/Europe to lead on the reconstruction of Ukraine precisely because they've lost the perception battle on supporting Ukraine.

With the UK, ultimately, I think the RAF were flying in anti-tank weapons non-stop for six weeks before the war - as were the Poles, Nordics and, I think, Dutch and Canadians. And I think being early is something that's remembered. I also think it was - with his response on Hong Kong - Johnson's best moment and the moment that he was kind of perfect for. I think you see that now with Sunak who is basically now just "generically pro-Ukrainian European leader" in terms of support and gestures (unrelated but related I've always been very suspicious of Sunak on foreign policy - I think he's very much a creature of the Treasury who struggles to see beyond economic impact). I'm hopeful that once Labour win support will ramp up in a bit more of a visible way (Starmer was on a trip to British troops in Estonia today).

Edit: And I should say that despite my suspicions of Sunak, I think Cameron has actually been pretty impressive as Foreign Secretary - pushing the UK government towards backing a ceasefire in Gaza, meeting with Jimmy Lai's family and today the UK Consulate in Hong Kong formally demanding consular rights to meet with Lai. I suspect the first bit with the wholehearted backing of his department - less sure on the other two points. And his first visit was to Ukraine which I expect will be followed when Labour win.

[Jacob]

...when Labour win.

I know what general sentiment is, and I know what the polls say broadly... but I still get shivers when you tempt fate like that

What's the window for the next election?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

...when Labour win.

I know what general sentiment is, and I know what the polls say broadly... but I still get shivers when you tempt fate like that

What's the window for the next election?

Inserts joke about windows and Russians here.

[Sheilbh]

I know what general sentiment is, and I know what the polls say broadly... but I still get shivers when you tempt fate like that

Fair - and I'm normally more cautious to avoid jinxing it. But I am pretty confident this government is done.

What's the window for the next election?

Latest it could be in theory is January 2025 but that's not going to happen - I think Starmer has ruled it out and it would mean an election campaign over Christmas.

So sometime this year. I feel like May is the traditional election time here, which is what Gups has heard - and I've read that the King's Speech didn't really include enough legislation for an entire year's worth of parliamentary time which might hint at May as well. On the other hand a government that 20%+ behind in the polls will tend to hold on as long as they can (and go for a long campaign) in the hope of something turning up. I think that's hard to imagine in the current situation.

[PJL]

I have some sympathy for the French who voted for Macron but got Le Pen. Afterall, that what I did in 2010 voting for CLegg but getting Cameron.

[Josquius]

As well as French aid to Ukraine  being understated, so too is east Asian aid.
For reasons they're not directly giving anything to ukraine beyond token helmets, humanitarian equipment, etc... But both Japan and Korea are keeping the US supplied allowing them in turn to pass stuff onto Ukraine.
Read a piece not too long ago about how Japan due to constitutional reasons is having to go through the IMF with financial aid but they're really keeping Ukraines lights on as Europe and America bicker.