Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[Jacob]

How likely are RN and LFI respectively to undermine democracy? Where do they stand on Europe? And how likely are they withdraw support of Ukraine?

[Razgovory]

The Red-Green alliance is certainly weird.

"I hate the religious right, they want to stone gay people to death,  they are fascists! I'm going to align myself with some Islamists instead"

[Zoupa]

How likely are RN and LFI respectively to undermine democracy? Where do they stand on Europe? And how likely are they withdraw support of Ukraine?

On democracy, not so much undermining. RN is certainly very ok with corruption. On Europe they both want a Frexit. They will both withdraw support for Ukraine.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The question here isn't is Melenchon good. He clearly isn't.

But one old guy who believes stupid shit whose far left party is hitting their upper limit in getting 10% of the vote   (the Judean Peoples Front effect is very real) is far less of a concern than a far right party that takes funding from Russia.

Melenchon wasn't even under consideration for a PM from the left. Others were.

The same sentiment that made hitler possible.

[Josquius]

LFI/Melenchon might be marginally "better" as they don't seem to be funded by the Kremlin (that we know of anyway).

They would be a disaster pretty much on par with the RN on policy, so it's a false choice.

Assuming a theoretical where Melenchon gets the same numbers as the fascists then sure.
But I'm looking at the reality here where Melenchon is just one man whose party has to make coalition with a bunch of other, often considerably saner, left wing parties in order to get anywhere. From what I gather many of these other parties aren't fans of his.
The Judean Peoples Front factor I mentioned is real. The left don't fall in line behind the leader in the way the fascists do.
As bad as Emperor Melenchon would be, it isn't happening. The fascists on the other hand are a realistic threat.
Even if Melenchon were to sneak the presidency, no way would he be getting a majority of MPs aligned with him.

At the last Presidential elections Melenchon won 20% and came third, behind Macron on 29% and Le Pen on 24%.

It's not fully clear who the candidates will be in the 2027 election. All poll have the RN reaching the second stage - there have been a few polls that have Melenchon also getting there. The strongest candidate of the left is still, most likely, Melenchon. So Europe's nightmare, a Melenchon-RN second round is a plausible possibility.

LFI are an integral part of the New Popular Front (so the Judean People's Front effect is not real) and the question of how you'll interact with Melenchon and the LFI is a key question on the left right now. So if the NPF tried to form a government, both the RN and Macron's party have said there would be an immediate vote of no confidence if that included ministries for LFI- but it's impossible to see how NPF could form a government without them.

As I always say - I think all of this is downstream of Macron making what is subtext across the West text. Consolidating all the forces of the "centre", obliterating the traditional parties of centre-right and centre-left - they literally really are all the same. But this also means that if you want change you have to go for revolution.

As much as I don't want to wish harm on anyone, Melenchon really needs to shuffle off. Hopefully he grows a sense of responsibility and sees it is for the best to retire.

Absolutely true the LFI are an important part of the left, but they are not THE left in the way the FN are the far right. The left was made up of myriad parties, many of which don't see eye to eye with the LFI on several issues. In fact this was the key issue Macron pointed to for denying them the opportunity to have a prime minister despite being the largest group after the election.

The candidate the left put forward was not Melenchon but Castets, who from all I've heard is considerably better. On the left but non-tankie. Also makes for quite a nice symmetry  with Bordello ( )on the other side with the whole toxic sexism thing that is so dominant in the world but particularly in France at the moment.

The question here isn't is Melenchon good. He clearly isn't.

But one old guy who believes stupid shit whose far left party is hitting their upper limit in getting 10% of the vote   (the Judean Peoples Front effect is very real) is far less of a concern than a far right party that takes funding from Russia.

Melenchon wasn't even under consideration for a PM from the left. Others were.

The same sentiment that made hitler possible.

Exactly. Oldest trick in the book for the far right. Currently being pushed by Trump as well.
Anyone left of centre= the most batshit tiny minority of militant marxists. Same same. Clearly we need a strong far right government in this world being taken over by the far left.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

LFI/Melenchon might be marginally "better" as they don't seem to be funded by the Kremlin (that we know of anyway).

They would be a disaster pretty much on par with the RN on policy, so it's a false choice.

Assuming a theoretical where Melenchon gets the same numbers as the fascists then sure.
But I'm looking at the reality here where Melenchon is just one man whose party has to make coalition with a bunch of other, often considerably saner, left wing parties in order to get anywhere. From what I gather many of these other parties aren't fans of his.
The Judean Peoples Front factor I mentioned is real. The left don't fall in line behind the leader in the way the fascists do.
As bad as Emperor Melenchon would be, it isn't happening. The fascists on the other hand are a realistic threat.
Even if Melenchon were to sneak the presidency, no way would he be getting a majority of MPs aligned with him.

At the last Presidential elections Melenchon won 20% and came third, behind Macron on 29% and Le Pen on 24%.

It's not fully clear who the candidates will be in the 2027 election. All poll have the RN reaching the second stage - there have been a few polls that have Melenchon also getting there. The strongest candidate of the left is still, most likely, Melenchon. So Europe's nightmare, a Melenchon-RN second round is a plausible possibility.

LFI are an integral part of the New Popular Front (so the Judean People's Front effect is not real) and the question of how you'll interact with Melenchon and the LFI is a key question on the left right now. So if the NPF tried to form a government, both the RN and Macron's party have said there would be an immediate vote of no confidence if that included ministries for LFI- but it's impossible to see how NPF could form a government without them.

As I always say - I think all of this is downstream of Macron making what is subtext across the West text. Consolidating all the forces of the "centre", obliterating the traditional parties of centre-right and centre-left - they literally really are all the same. But this also means that if you want change you have to go for revolution.

As much as I don't want to wish harm on anyone, Melenchon really needs to shuffle off. Hopefully he grows a sense of responsibility and sees it is for the best to retire.

Absolutely true the LFI are an important part of the left, but they are not THE left in the way the FN are the far right. The left was made up of myriad parties, many of which don't see eye to eye with the LFI on several issues. In fact this was the key issue Macron pointed to for denying them the opportunity to have a prime minister despite being the largest group after the election.

The candidate the left put forward was not Melenchon but Castets, who from all I've heard is considerably better. On the left but non-tankie. Also makes for quite a nice symmetry  with Bordello ( )on the other side with the whole toxic sexism thing that is so dominant in the world but particularly in France at the moment.

The question here isn't is Melenchon good. He clearly isn't.

But one old guy who believes stupid shit whose far left party is hitting their upper limit in getting 10% of the vote   (the Judean Peoples Front effect is very real) is far less of a concern than a far right party that takes funding from Russia.

Melenchon wasn't even under consideration for a PM from the left. Others were.

The same sentiment that made hitler possible.

Exactly. Oldest trick in the book for the far right. Currently being pushed by Trump as well.
Anyone left of centre= the most batshit tiny minority of militant marxists. Same same. Clearly we need a strong far right government in this world being taken over by the far left.

You don't seem to get it. You're no better than those you accuse.

[Sheilbh]

How likely are RN and LFI respectively to undermine democracy?

I think this slightly depends on what you mean.

France has quite an authoritarian constitution. It was made to fit the proportions and views of de Gaulle and remedy the flaws (as he perceived them) of the Fourth Republic. So, for example, there are some powers that allow the executive to pass legislation without parliamentary support (subject to a vote of no confidence) - which was used by Macron to raise the pension age (which is a big driver of a lot of the opposition currently in the "block everything" movement). Similarly there are powers for the executive to largely roll over budgets without parliamentary support.

So I think there are resources in the French constitution for a more authoritarian type of politics. These have already been tested by Macron. I think the RN would absolutely push them further.

Melenchon has long called for, and the NPF backs him, the establishment of a Sixth Republic. This is directly against that constitution which I think Melenchon has said is basically the Third Empire in terms of the powers of the President. He wants to become President in order to be the last President (with those powers). From my understanding they want to move to a more proportional, more parliamentary model. The first step would be electing a sovereign constituent assembly - the model they cite is Rafael Correa's changes to the Ecuadorian constitution.

Where do they stand on Europe?

I don't think either backs Frexit or anything like that (Brexit has had the desired dissuasive effect) but both want ver serious reform.

But I think it's very difficult to see either governing without a European crisis - particularly over economic policy and the Euro. I think the RN is most likely to be able to reconcile itself and do a Meloni, while I think a confrontation with Europe would probably be inevitable for an LFI presidency.

I also think - and I don't know how it would play out - that either would cause an absolute crisis for Germany. I think either would be challenging for all European countries and French allies. But I think for Germany it would be particularly severe. Germany policy (including West Germany) since the end of the war has been based on Atlanticism and the Franco-German engine. If there was Trump in the White House plus the RN or Melenchon in the Elysee I think both of those pillars are gone and I'm not sure what the thinking in Germany would be in how to respond to that.

And how likely are they withdraw support of Ukraine?

I think both are very likely to withdraw at least military support. At best I think they'd move to the Irish position - strong moral support but nothing else.

[Valmy]

I presume you mean the Third Republic and not the Third Empire, unless Melenchon is a closet Bonapartist. Though that wouldn't even be close to the weirdest thing going on in politics these days.

[Sheilbh]

I presume you mean the Third Republic and not the Third Empire, unless Melenchon is a closet Bonapartist. Though that wouldn't even be close to the weirdest thing going on in politics these days.

No I think he's said the Fifth Republic is so President-focused (perhaps especially under Macron) it functions like a Third Empire.

[Valmy]

I presume you mean the Third Republic and not the Third Empire, unless Melenchon is a closet Bonapartist. Though that wouldn't even be close to the weirdest thing going on in politics these days.

No I think he's said the Fifth Republic is so President-focused (perhaps especially under Macron) it functions like a Third Empire.

I think every Presidential system ends up being like that. Ours does. Which is why I am gradually coming to the conclusion the Westminster system might be better.

But the French left has always preferred the 3rd Republic, which is the 4th Republic was basically identical. Ironic considering it was created by the guys who crushed the Commune.

[Sheilbh]

Well I don't know that we can be massively surprised that a constitutional order created by a heroic general called to save his country might end up a little bit imperial And in fairness I think Melenchon's criticism is right, I also think Macron's point of the French system requiring a "Jupiterian" figure rather than a Mr Normal figure like Hollande is also true.

[Tonitrus]

I think every Presidential system ends up being like that. Ours does. Which is why I am gradually coming to the conclusion the Westminster system might be better.

Assuming we had a Westminster system, we'd still have Trump (MP for Mar-a-Lago-on-Lake-Worth) as Prime Minister with even less roadblocks than there are now.

[Razgovory]

Exactly. Oldest trick in the book for the far right. Currently being pushed by Trump as well.
Anyone left of centre= the most batshit tiny minority of militant marxists. Same same. Clearly we need a strong far right government in this world being taken over by the far left.

Just out of curiosity, what is the oldest trick in the book for the far-left?

[Valmy]

I think every Presidential system ends up being like that. Ours does. Which is why I am gradually coming to the conclusion the Westminster system might be better.

Assuming we had a Westminster system, we'd still have Trump (MP for Mar-a-Lago-on-Lake-Worth) as Prime Minister with even less roadblocks than there are now.

That is true. It just seems like Presidential systems often have this problem.

Well I don't know that we can be massively surprised that a constitutional order created by a heroic general called to save his country might end up a little bit imperial And in fairness I think Melenchon's criticism is right, I also think Macron's point of the French system requiring a "Jupiterian" figure rather than a Mr Normal figure like Hollande is also true.

I agree. I think it is a problem. The President, as head of state, just has a level of prestige that makes him the more legitimate leader than some parliamentarian.

[Tonitrus]

Also, if we had the Westminster system, would Queen Brynda I still have actual power, or be just like King Charles?