Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[Jacob]

How likely are RN and LFI respectively to undermine democracy? Where do they stand on Europe? And how likely are they withdraw support of Ukraine?

[Razgovory]

The Red-Green alliance is certainly weird.

"I hate the religious right, they want to stone gay people to death,  they are fascists! I'm going to align myself with some Islamists instead"

[Zoupa]

How likely are RN and LFI respectively to undermine democracy? Where do they stand on Europe? And how likely are they withdraw support of Ukraine?

On democracy, not so much undermining. RN is certainly very ok with corruption. On Europe they both want a Frexit. They will both withdraw support for Ukraine.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The question here isn't is Melenchon good. He clearly isn't.

But one old guy who believes stupid shit whose far left party is hitting their upper limit in getting 10% of the vote   (the Judean Peoples Front effect is very real) is far less of a concern than a far right party that takes funding from Russia.

Melenchon wasn't even under consideration for a PM from the left. Others were.

The same sentiment that made hitler possible.

[Josquius]

LFI/Melenchon might be marginally "better" as they don't seem to be funded by the Kremlin (that we know of anyway).

They would be a disaster pretty much on par with the RN on policy, so it's a false choice.

Assuming a theoretical where Melenchon gets the same numbers as the fascists then sure.
But I'm looking at the reality here where Melenchon is just one man whose party has to make coalition with a bunch of other, often considerably saner, left wing parties in order to get anywhere. From what I gather many of these other parties aren't fans of his.
The Judean Peoples Front factor I mentioned is real. The left don't fall in line behind the leader in the way the fascists do.
As bad as Emperor Melenchon would be, it isn't happening. The fascists on the other hand are a realistic threat.
Even if Melenchon were to sneak the presidency, no way would he be getting a majority of MPs aligned with him.

At the last Presidential elections Melenchon won 20% and came third, behind Macron on 29% and Le Pen on 24%.

It's not fully clear who the candidates will be in the 2027 election. All poll have the RN reaching the second stage - there have been a few polls that have Melenchon also getting there. The strongest candidate of the left is still, most likely, Melenchon. So Europe's nightmare, a Melenchon-RN second round is a plausible possibility.

LFI are an integral part of the New Popular Front (so the Judean People's Front effect is not real) and the question of how you'll interact with Melenchon and the LFI is a key question on the left right now. So if the NPF tried to form a government, both the RN and Macron's party have said there would be an immediate vote of no confidence if that included ministries for LFI- but it's impossible to see how NPF could form a government without them.

As I always say - I think all of this is downstream of Macron making what is subtext across the West text. Consolidating all the forces of the "centre", obliterating the traditional parties of centre-right and centre-left - they literally really are all the same. But this also means that if you want change you have to go for revolution.

As much as I don't want to wish harm on anyone, Melenchon really needs to shuffle off. Hopefully he grows a sense of responsibility and sees it is for the best to retire.

Absolutely true the LFI are an important part of the left, but they are not THE left in the way the FN are the far right. The left was made up of myriad parties, many of which don't see eye to eye with the LFI on several issues. In fact this was the key issue Macron pointed to for denying them the opportunity to have a prime minister despite being the largest group after the election.

The candidate the left put forward was not Melenchon but Castets, who from all I've heard is considerably better. On the left but non-tankie. Also makes for quite a nice symmetry  with Bordello ( )on the other side with the whole toxic sexism thing that is so dominant in the world but particularly in France at the moment.

The question here isn't is Melenchon good. He clearly isn't.

But one old guy who believes stupid shit whose far left party is hitting their upper limit in getting 10% of the vote   (the Judean Peoples Front effect is very real) is far less of a concern than a far right party that takes funding from Russia.

Melenchon wasn't even under consideration for a PM from the left. Others were.

The same sentiment that made hitler possible.

Exactly. Oldest trick in the book for the far right. Currently being pushed by Trump as well.
Anyone left of centre= the most batshit tiny minority of militant marxists. Same same. Clearly we need a strong far right government in this world being taken over by the far left.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

LFI/Melenchon might be marginally "better" as they don't seem to be funded by the Kremlin (that we know of anyway).

They would be a disaster pretty much on par with the RN on policy, so it's a false choice.

Assuming a theoretical where Melenchon gets the same numbers as the fascists then sure.
But I'm looking at the reality here where Melenchon is just one man whose party has to make coalition with a bunch of other, often considerably saner, left wing parties in order to get anywhere. From what I gather many of these other parties aren't fans of his.
The Judean Peoples Front factor I mentioned is real. The left don't fall in line behind the leader in the way the fascists do.
As bad as Emperor Melenchon would be, it isn't happening. The fascists on the other hand are a realistic threat.
Even if Melenchon were to sneak the presidency, no way would he be getting a majority of MPs aligned with him.

At the last Presidential elections Melenchon won 20% and came third, behind Macron on 29% and Le Pen on 24%.

It's not fully clear who the candidates will be in the 2027 election. All poll have the RN reaching the second stage - there have been a few polls that have Melenchon also getting there. The strongest candidate of the left is still, most likely, Melenchon. So Europe's nightmare, a Melenchon-RN second round is a plausible possibility.

LFI are an integral part of the New Popular Front (so the Judean People's Front effect is not real) and the question of how you'll interact with Melenchon and the LFI is a key question on the left right now. So if the NPF tried to form a government, both the RN and Macron's party have said there would be an immediate vote of no confidence if that included ministries for LFI- but it's impossible to see how NPF could form a government without them.

As I always say - I think all of this is downstream of Macron making what is subtext across the West text. Consolidating all the forces of the "centre", obliterating the traditional parties of centre-right and centre-left - they literally really are all the same. But this also means that if you want change you have to go for revolution.

As much as I don't want to wish harm on anyone, Melenchon really needs to shuffle off. Hopefully he grows a sense of responsibility and sees it is for the best to retire.

Absolutely true the LFI are an important part of the left, but they are not THE left in the way the FN are the far right. The left was made up of myriad parties, many of which don't see eye to eye with the LFI on several issues. In fact this was the key issue Macron pointed to for denying them the opportunity to have a prime minister despite being the largest group after the election.

The candidate the left put forward was not Melenchon but Castets, who from all I've heard is considerably better. On the left but non-tankie. Also makes for quite a nice symmetry  with Bordello ( )on the other side with the whole toxic sexism thing that is so dominant in the world but particularly in France at the moment.

The question here isn't is Melenchon good. He clearly isn't.

But one old guy who believes stupid shit whose far left party is hitting their upper limit in getting 10% of the vote   (the Judean Peoples Front effect is very real) is far less of a concern than a far right party that takes funding from Russia.

Melenchon wasn't even under consideration for a PM from the left. Others were.

The same sentiment that made hitler possible.

Exactly. Oldest trick in the book for the far right. Currently being pushed by Trump as well.
Anyone left of centre= the most batshit tiny minority of militant marxists. Same same. Clearly we need a strong far right government in this world being taken over by the far left.

You don't seem to get it. You're no better than those you accuse.