The EU thread

[Admiral Yi]

The French voting system is tragically flawed for this precise moment. Le Pen is leading in a bunch of polls and seems destined to be first or second with her consistent 25-30% of voters, while Macron may be unpopular overall but has a base level of support. In an open field the power of the incumbency should go far. Of course anyone who is up against Le Pen in Round 2 will be a prohibitive favorite.

A ton can happen in the next year and I certainly wouldn't say that is a lock to happen, but it seems the most likely way for things to play out.

Not sure I follow.

The tragic flaw in the French system is that a neo-Nazi with 25% support can't win the presidency?

[alfred russel]

The French voting system is tragically flawed for this precise moment. Le Pen is leading in a bunch of polls and seems destined to be first or second with her consistent 25-30% of voters, while Macron may be unpopular overall but has a base level of support. In an open field the power of the incumbency should go far. Of course anyone who is up against Le Pen in Round 2 will be a prohibitive favorite.

A ton can happen in the next year and I certainly wouldn't say that is a lock to happen, but it seems the most likely way for things to play out.

Not sure I follow.

The tragic flaw in the French system is that a neo-Nazi with 25% support can't win the presidency?

No--the tragic flaw is that a neo-Nazi with 25% support kind of makes the election of limited value. The neo nazi can't win because a core 25% support can't get a majority when the other 75% hates neo-Naziism--and apart from neo Naziism being bad it is a terrible outcome for democracy for a president to be elected that 75% of the electorate hates. That is good.

The problem is that in a diverse political environment like France the other candidate (the non-Nazi) that can approach 25% is going to be elected president. Macron has an approval rating in the upper 30s and a disapproval around 60. He is unpopular. But he has the power of the incumbency, and is just popular enough he will probably get that spot in the second round. He beat Le Pen by ~30% last time and probably will again. But he'd probably lose to a number of other figures in the second round if they are his opponent other than Le Pen.

[Sheilbh]

The problem is that in a diverse political environment like France the other candidate (the non-Nazi) that can approach 25% is going to be elected president. Macron has an approval rating in the upper 30s and a disapproval around 60. He is unpopular. But he has the power of the incumbency, and is just popular enough he will probably get that spot in the second round. He beat Le Pen by ~30% last time and probably will again. But he'd probably lose to a number of other figures in the second round if they are his opponent other than Le Pen.

I'm not 100% sure Macron gets through - I think there's interesting stuff happening on the right if they can manage to coalesce in some way (which is probably unlikely).

But even then I'd be astonished if Macron won by 30% again. For the last year basically the polls have floated around 55%/45%.

In part that's because of the mainstreaming of Le Pen (helped by Macron who almost appears to be trying to outflank her on "Islamic separatism", support for the police etc). But also voters from other parties appear to be less willing to switch to Macron so it's likely that more voters of the right (if they don't go through) will break more evenly and more on the left will abstain. Macron will still win but I think it's a different situation than in 2017.

But I think it all sort of feeds into each other. So the political fragmentation - especially with a Presidential model - means that fewer candidates can approach that 25%, but it also, I suspect, leads to increased tiredness/exhaustion around the political system which is dissatisfying, prompting further support for Le Pen.

Although the regional elections do who the right doing well and the left surviving in some way if they could just form a front of some sort

[Admiral Yi]

No--the tragic flaw is that a neo-Nazi with 25% support kind of makes the election of limited value. The neo nazi can't win because a core 25% support can't get a majority when the other 75% hates neo-Naziism--and apart from neo Naziism being bad it is a terrible outcome for democracy for a president to be elected that 75% of the electorate hates. That is good.

The problem is that in a diverse political environment like France the other candidate (the non-Nazi) that can approach 25% is going to be elected president. Macron has an approval rating in the upper 30s and a disapproval around 60. He is unpopular. But he has the power of the incumbency, and is just popular enough he will probably get that spot in the second round. He beat Le Pen by ~30% last time and probably will again. But he'd probably lose to a number of other figures in the second round if they are his opponent other than Le Pen.

OK, I get you.

But so what if Macron wins big with crummy approval ratings.  If someone else had higher ratings they would face Frau Le Pen in the second round, not Macron.

[Sheilbh]

He's got pretty decent approval ratings for a French President in 4 years of their term

[alfred russel]

But even then I'd be astonished if Macron won by 30% again. For the last year basically the polls have floated around 55%/45%.

In part that's because of the mainstreaming of Le Pen (helped by Macron who almost appears to be trying to outflank her on "Islamic separatism", support for the police etc).

I agree on this...I was skipping past it because it opens up a lot of other questions, and the exact amount of the landslide is kind of irrelevant.

Other questions:
-can Le Pen hold her support as she mainstreams? Or will it fracture to alternatives on the far right? (which could knock her out of round 1)
-would her platform be viable if it didn't have the Le Pen brand associated to it?

[Duque de Bragança]

He's got pretty decent approval ratings for a French President in 4 years of their term

Decent? He beat Hollande's impopularity records.    Yellow vests, remember? Getting slapped? 

As for Marine as neo-nazi, that's ridiculous.

[alfred russel]

OK, I get you.

But so what if Macron wins big with crummy approval ratings.  If someone else had higher ratings they would face Frau Le Pen in the second round, not Macron.

It is a flaw in the system that super polarizing figures have an advantage in round 1. If you end up with a landslide because you have two candidates:

#1: 35% loves, 65% hates,
#2: 25% loves, 75% despises,

The system doesn't seem to be great.

If candidate #1 was more like 50-50 on the love hate spectrum that would be a better outcome, but the system is unchanged. This isn't just a problem with France: look at the recent elections in Peru, with a similar system. You ended up with basically a fascist versus a marxist in round 2.

[Admiral Yi]

As for Marine as neo-nazi, that's ridiculous.

Neo Nazi is a lot easier to type than anti-immigrant anti-EU populist authoritarian right winger

[Admiral Yi]

It is a flaw in the system that super polarizing figures have an advantage in round 1. If you end up with a landslide because you have two candidates:

#1: 35% loves, 65% hates,
#2: 25% loves, 75% despises,

The system doesn't seem to be great.

If candidate #1 was more like 50-50 on the love hate spectrum that would be a better outcome, but the system is unchanged. This isn't just a problem with France: look at the recent elections in Peru, with a similar system. You ended up with basically a fascist versus a marxist in round 2.

My takeaway from this is France is an ungovernable country because it's full of haters.  As I said before, if there was someone with higher approval than Macron he or she would get into the second round.

Also don't see how Peru works in support of your argument because you switched from unpopularity to polarization.  Macron still inhabits the broadly defined center.

[Duque de Bragança]

As for Marine as neo-nazi, that's ridiculous.

Neo Nazi is a lot easier to type than anti-immigrant anti-EU populist authoritarian right winger

Lazyness is still ridiculous.

Anti-islamist would be more accurate than anti-immigrant. Latest trend among French islamo-leftists is to blame European immigrants for the RN vote. Specially after some kind of sporting event, truth be said. 
As for authoritarian, or even populist, fits Macron as well.
Demagogue would fit both, also.

Marine's program in 2017 read like a '70s left-wing party back to the future trip.

[alfred russel]

My takeaway from this is France is an ungovernable country because it's full of haters.  As I said before, if there was someone with higher approval than Macron he or she would get into the second round.

Also don't see how Peru works in support of your argument because you switched from unpopularity to polarization.  Macron still inhabits the broadly defined center.

I didn't switch from unpopularity to polarization. Macron is polarizing not because he is an extremist but because he is an incumbent.

It is really hard to speak with certainty on what will happen in an election a year away. I'm talking like it is certain that Macron and Le Pen will face off in round 2 but obviously that may not happen. That said, if the election was in the coming months, I would guess that both Macron and Le Pen would get through despite both having net approval ratings lower than at least one candidate that didn't.

[Sheilbh]

I agree on this...I was skipping past it because it opens up a lot of other questions, and the exact amount of the landslide is kind of irrelevant.

Other questions:
-can Le Pen hold her support as she mainstreams? Or will it fracture to alternatives on the far right? (which could knock her out of round 1)

Yes - but also the opposite. Is the presence of alternatives on the far-right a factor in the perceived "moderation"/mainstreamining of Le Pen?

So Eric Zemmour's shadow campaign - which as Ben Judah put it raises the question of whether "by running as a French nationalist Jew on a more extreme anti-EU and anti-Islam agenda he is making Le Pen look moderate." Even if he doesn't stand - which would likely stop the far-right fracturing he may have presented a stark enough contrast that benefits Le Pen anyway - and when he's included in the polls he does quite well (with the occasional appearance of Marion Marechal Le Pen at his events).

-would her platform be viable if it didn't have the Le Pen brand associated to it?

I don't think so, personally - although maybe that'll change. The regionals were disappointing for RN but they will possibly have their first regional President (I think) in the South. I always think holding actual power is a really good base for someone to build a brand and that may further legitimise them but also maybe it'll move more attention to him - perhaps it's interesting that the Le Pens didn't run, so far as I'm aware, at all in this round of regional elections - maybe because they knew it would go well or maybe to build more of a sense that there is a party beyond their personal campaigns.

Decent? He beat Hollande's impopularity records.    Yellow vests, remember? Getting slapped? 

Macron's approval rating is floating around 40-50%. In year 4 Hollande's was at 15%, Sarko was at around 30%. Chirac was more popular at this point in his first term (obviously the change in term length will make comparisons tougher if Macron wins a second terms because he'll be almost unprecedented) - but Macron's approval is around the level of Mitterand.

If, after four years, your numbers are closer to Mitterand or Chirac's than Hollande or Sarko's, then I think it's fair to say that's pretty decent.

[Duque de Bragança]

Oh, Éric Zemmour. Languish will love him. French souverainist North African Barbarian Jew (not Sepharadi sorry clueless Ashkenazis).
I loved his defense of George Marchais, former PCF leader from the '70s to the early '90s, as the last Gaullist. 

A well-known polemicist, hated by the post-modern left, but the only way to prevent Marine from reaching the run-off by Macron's clique.

[Sheilbh]

I didn't switch from unpopularity to polarization. Macron is polarizing not because he is an extremist but because he is an incumbent.

Also his attitude and his political style - there are ways he reminds me a lot of Blair who was on the centre left but similarly polarising.

Where someone is on left to right doesn't tell you anything about what they're like as a politician or how they'll govern/behave or whether they're establishment/technocratic/populist etc. It just, at best, sort of gives an indication of some of their views maybe.

It is really hard to speak with certainty on what will happen in an election a year away. I'm talking like it is certain that Macron and Le Pen will face off in round 2 but obviously that may not happen. That said, if the election was in the coming months, I would guess that both Macron and Le Pen would get through despite both having net approval ratings lower than at least one candidate that didn't.

Agreed I think France and the UK have consistently negative approval ratings for most politicans. Unlike the US and maybe other, more rational countries - so I think Boris Johnson had a net positive approval rating (or it may have been "is doing a good job") at one point during the pandemic but it was the first time any prime minister had one since Gordon Brown at the height of the financial crisis. So I think in the UK and France the default is generally between two unpopular options.

I really hope the French right have a long look at Bertrand given that he seems to poll quite well and he seems to have done a decent jobs in Hauts-de-France based on the election results, particularly in what I think was a strong area for the RN/FN. I think he is probably the one non-Macron/Le Pen candidate who I suspect has the best chance of getting into the second round.