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Military coup in Myanmar

Started by Barrister, February 01, 2021, 11:53:54 AM

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Admiral Yi


Duque de Bragança

Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 11:07:20 PM
He was a Japanese collabo, no?

To achieve independence, before switching sides.
Mind you, the collabo stuff, to Brits in this matter, is what I hear sometimes from (East) Asians regarding the Rohingya.

Sheilbh

Quote from: mongers on February 01, 2021, 09:13:05 PM
So is she back in some people's 'good books'?

Her not lifting a figure to help the Rohingya and her mealy words at the time, were active support for an enfolding genocide; she can go hang as far as I'm concerned.
I don't think she's back in anyone's good books.

QuoteHe was a Japanese collabo, no?
That's not too surprising given British imperialism - or an issue for many people in colonised countries. I know that Bose and the Indian National Army are seen as heroic figures in the Indian independence movement.

QuoteMind you, the collabo stuff, to Brits in this matter, is what I hear sometimes from (East) Asians regarding the Rohingya.
That is something the British did across the empire.
Let's bomb Russia!

OttoVonBismarck

More than not being back in anyone's "good books" I think we should probably have given a more critical eye to international fawning over Suu Kyi way back in the beginning. I think her life story suggests like many of these unstable political systems in Southeast Asia, the idea of simplistic "good guys and bad guys" is not usually the best way to look at the situation. She was advocating for democracy in part because it was her path to power, but how much she ever really believed in what we in the West view as "appropriate liberal democracy" is an open question. Just because her enemies are bad dudes doesn't mean she was ever actually a benign figure.

Darth Wagtaros

PDH!

PJL

If she had been more critical of the military situation against the minority Muslims in Burma, then her reputation would have been better worldwide and it's probablee that the military would have been much more hesitant to move against her now or even do a coup. Her real strength was from her international supporters more than the opposition to the military she had domestically.

Barrister

Quote from: PJL on February 02, 2021, 12:41:05 PM
If she had been more critical of the military situation against the minority Muslims in Burma, then her reputation would have been better worldwide and it's probablee that the military would have been much more hesitant to move against her now or even do a coup. Her real strength was from her international supporters more than the opposition to the military she had domestically.

No, her real strength was the support from the people of Burma, who in an election in November gave her party over 80% of the seats.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

DGuller

Quote from: Barrister on February 02, 2021, 12:43:22 PM
Quote from: PJL on February 02, 2021, 12:41:05 PM
If she had been more critical of the military situation against the minority Muslims in Burma, then her reputation would have been better worldwide and it's probablee that the military would have been much more hesitant to move against her now or even do a coup. Her real strength was from her international supporters more than the opposition to the military she had domestically.

No, her real strength was the support from the people of Burma, who in an election in November gave her party over 80% of the seats.
How's that strength working out for her?  Myanmar military has a lot of experience maintaining power in the face of overwhelming popular disapproval.  It's the international sanctions that give them pause.

Sheilbh

Quote from: DGuller on February 02, 2021, 02:00:51 PM
How's that strength working out for her?  Myanmar military has a lot of experience maintaining power in the face of overwhelming popular disapproval.  It's the international sanctions that give them pause.
Really? The junta's more or less since independence except for the 2010s. I don't think sanctions or international isolation has ever been a major issue for them.
Let's bomb Russia!

Admiral Yi

I believe China's patronage makes sanctions pretty toothless.

DGuller

Why did they let her out of the dungeon in the first place then?  Did they want to take a break from mismanaging the country for a while?

Sheilbh

Quote from: DGuller on February 02, 2021, 02:13:12 PM
Why did they let her out of the dungeon in the first place then?  Did they want to take a break from mismanaging the country for a while?
From memory I think it was a huge surprise when it happened. The military wrote the constitution and had a great deal of residual influence (I think they had a number of seats in parliament for example). Possibly their role was under threat because of how big her majority was?

But yeah from memory democratisation was a surprise and I don't remember many people being able to explain it and I think there's something similar going on now. This is a surprise (to an extent) and it's not clear why it happened now.

QuoteI believe China's patronage makes sanctions pretty toothless.
I think India too.
Let's bomb Russia!

Crazy_Ivan80

Quote from: DGuller on February 02, 2021, 02:00:51 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 02, 2021, 12:43:22 PM
Quote from: PJL on February 02, 2021, 12:41:05 PM
If she had been more critical of the military situation against the minority Muslims in Burma, then her reputation would have been better worldwide and it's probablee that the military would have been much more hesitant to move against her now or even do a coup. Her real strength was from her international supporters more than the opposition to the military she had domestically.

No, her real strength was the support from the people of Burma, who in an election in November gave her party over 80% of the seats.
How's that strength working out for her?  Myanmar military has a lot of experience maintaining power in the face of overwhelming popular disapproval.  It's the international sanctions that give them pause.

sanctions are all fun and all that but their track record of getting rid of regimes that are really determined to stay in place isn't that great afaik

Barrister

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 02, 2021, 02:24:33 PM
sanctions are all fun and all that but their track record of getting rid of regimes that are really determined to stay in place isn't that great afaik

Sanctions aren't really the proper tool for regime change.  They're more useful if you're trying to induce a change in policy from an existing government.  There they have had mild to moderate success.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Admiral Yi

South Africa is the obvious success story.