Quo Vadis GOP?

[OttoVonBismarck]

There are some interesting and tricky public policy debates to be had over transgender people: youth transitions, sports, female only spaces like prisons or women's shelters...

But the MAGA GOP isn't interested in nuance.  They're going all-in on being anti-trans.

This is my feeling on it. Like a lot of people, especially ones who spent most of their lives as Republicans, I think there are situations where the progressive desire to always accept someone's gender identity creates results I don't like.

I don't really think biological males should, generally speaking, participate in women's sports in most circumstances. But I also think we can fairly safely leave that up to sports bodies and such to regulate and figure out the right answer on. One of the issues for example with the transgender NCAA swimmer is she was allowed to compete against women after I believe only 12 months of hormone treatment, while I think more rigorous research suggests that someone under hormone treatment is likely to still benefit from their biological sex and the effects of decades of growing up with biological male hormones for several years after starting hormone treatment.

I am also skeptical of the treatment of minors with sex hormones and definitely any sort of surgical intervention (I think almost all doctors are against surgical interventions for minors.) But, again--I also think we can somewhat let the professionals and the parents involved figure it out.

A big reason I'm against these heavy handed government approaches to these questions is transgender people are a shockingly small part of the population.

The Utah Governor, in vetoing a ban on trans people participating in sports--made note that there was something like 2 or 3 kids in the whole state who would be affected by the ban. He, obviously, is a Republican, but he said he wasn't comfortable using his office to target a few kids. I'm pretty sure his veto was overridden, but that's largely my attitude on it.

Trans issues are complex and require individualized and expert approaches to handle, and on top of that I think almost none of them are "ripe" for valid government intervention. Government should not be the first step to settling such issues, but a last resort.

The GOP is clearly just using a very small and vulnerable population as a boogeyman in complete disregard to the harm it might cause, and that is gravely immoral.

[Barrister]

The GOP is clearly just using a very small and vulnerable population as a boogeyman in complete disregard to the harm it might cause, and that is gravely immoral.

I've never identified myself as a libertarian, but "live and let live" is a pretty good rule to live by most of the time.

Even if you don't accept a trans person as being their claimed identity, it costs nothing to treat them with basic human dignity and respect.  Let people dress as they want to dress, be called what they want to be called, and live their life as they want to live it.

But to cause specific harm to people who pose no risk just to seek some kind of political gain is just disgusting.

[grumbler]

One of the issues for example with the transgender NCAA swimmer is she was allowed to compete against women after I believe only 12 months of hormone treatment, while I think more rigorous research suggests that someone under hormone treatment is likely to still benefit from their biological sex and the effects of decades of growing up with biological male hormones for several years after starting hormone treatment.

Lia Thomas had completed more than three years of HRT by the time she became a championship-caliber swimmer, and in fact had improved her time every year over those three.  The Air Force study of trans women found that, except for running times, trans women had no advantage over cis women by the end of the second year of HRT.

It's also important to note that Lia Thomas did win one national championship (as a fifth-year senior) but was still rated the number-36 swimmer in Div 1 NCAA swimming. Her history as a former male couldn't have been that big an advantage if 35 swimmers without that history were ranked ahead of her.

Sometime athletes win just because they put in the work.

[garbon]

Ron DeSantis to meet UK ministers on tour to boost foreign policy credentials

[Eddie Teach]

Wasn't Shepherd killed by a man who had fucked him and sold him drugs?

[viper37]

One of the issues for example with the transgender NCAA swimmer is she was allowed to compete against women after I believe only 12 months of hormone treatment, while I think more rigorous research suggests that someone under hormone treatment is likely to still benefit from their biological sex and the effects of decades of growing up with biological male hormones for several years after starting hormone treatment.

Lia Thomas had completed more than three years of HRT by the time she became a championship-caliber swimmer, and in fact had improved her time every year over those three.  The Air Force study of trans women found that, except for running times, trans women had no advantage over cis women by the end of the second year of HRT.


Sometime athletes win just because they put in the work.

The Air Force study measured push ups, sit ups and running.
Conclusion:

Summary The 15–31% athletic advantage that transwomen displayed over their female counterparts prior to starting gender affirming hormones declined with feminising therapy. However, transwomen still had a 9% faster mean run speed after the 1 year period of testosterone suppression that is recommended by World Athletics for inclusion in women's events.
In the 2018–2019 season she was, when competing in the men's team, ranked 554th in the 200 freestyle, 65th in the 500 freestyle, and 32nd in the 1650 freestyle. In the 2021–2022 season, those ranks are now, when competing in the women's team, fifth in the 200 freestyle, first in the 500 freestyle, and eighth in the 1650 freestyle.^[17][18] According to an archived page of the swimming data website Swimcloud, Thomas was ranked 89th among male college swimmers for that season.^[19]
In a race during January 2022 at a meet against UPenn's Ivy League rival Yale, Thomas finished in 6th place in the 100m freestyle race, losing to four cisgender women and Iszac Henig, a transgender man, who transitioned without hormone therapy.^[20][21]
[...]

Conclusion
In this study, we confirmed that use of gender affirming hormones are associated with changes in athletic performance and demonstrated that the pretreatment differences between transgender and cis gender women persist beyond the 12 month time requirement currently being proposed for athletic competition by the World Athletics and the IOC.10 This study suggests that more than 12 months of testosterone suppression may be needed to ensure that transgender women do not have an unfair competitive advantage when participating in elite level athletic competition.

Running and swimming are very similar, they are endurance sports.  So Lia Thomas had a definite advantage over other participants when she began competing, as per your study.

It's also important to note that Lia Thomas did win one national championship (as a fifth-year senior) but was still rated the number-36 swimmer in Div 1 NCAA swimming. Her history as a former male couldn't have been that big an advantage if 35 swimmers without that history were ranked ahead of her.

In the 2018–2019 season she was, when competing in the men's team, ranked 554th in the 200 freestyle, 65th in the 500 freestyle, and 32nd in the 1650 freestyle. In the 2021–2022 season, those ranks are now, when competing in the women's team, fifth in the 200 freestyle, first in the 500 freestyle, and eighth in the 1650 freestyle.^[17][18] According to an archived page of the swimming data website Swimcloud, Thomas was ranked 89th among male college swimmers for that season.^[19]

In a race during January 2022 at a meet against UPenn's Ivy League rival Yale, Thomas finished in 6th place in the 100m freestyle race, losing to four cisgender women and Iszac Henig, a transgender man, who transitioned without hormone therapy.<sup>[20][21]



He was 554 when competing has a male in the 200 freestyle. She is now fifth in the 200 freestyle.
In that last competition when she finished 6th, the first place was won by a transgender man who wasn't on hormone therapy.

You can't say there's zero advantage to transgenders who compete in sports here.</sup>

[Valmy]

I am not saying there is zero advantage. Just that that advantage doesn't appear to have made as big of a difference as I would have thought so far. This has been a topic of discussion on Languish for over a decade now since trans athletes started competing and I have yet to see a big trend of trans athletes dominating. Sure you might find an example of a few winning but they aren't exactly crushing all comers.

But I will continue to watch with interest.

[viper37]

I am not saying there is zero advantage. Just that that advantage doesn't appear to have made as big of a difference as I would have thought so far. This has been a topic of discussion on Languish for over a decade now since trans athletes started competing and I have yet to see a big trend of trans athletes dominating. Sure you might find an example of a few winning but they aren't exactly crushing all comers.

But I will continue to watch with interest.

The Airforce Study that Grumbler quoted concluded there was a significant difference in endurance after two years:
https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/55/11/577

Sit ups and push ups are more about strength and it seems the difference lessened there.

The study had 222 participants, but 147 were rejected.  The researchers seems satisfied this was a large enough sample, but conclude there needs more testing to be done over a longer period time.  There are also other limits, like the dosage of the hormones each participant takes.

Most sports require endurance, not just brute strength.  Any training you do for any sport will require strength and endurance to achieve maximum level of performance.  Unless you qualify bridge as an olympic sport, maybe.

[grumbler]

Swimming is like running track.  It is about speed, not endurance.  The closest analogue to swimming in terms of the key muscle groups would be pushups.

[Syt]

CPAC is holding an event with Hungarian conservatives in Hungary.



I thought anti-woke people were against "safe zones"?

[crazy canuck]

Swimming is like running track.  It is about speed, not endurance.  The closest analogue to swimming in terms of the key muscle groups would be pushups.

Maybe in a sprint, but even then the good sprinters in both the pool and track are very strong.

Anything beyond a sprint in the pool is definitely about endurance.  Do just a 200 IM and, after you have caught your breath, tell me endurance had nothing to do with your ability to just finish the distance. 

[Syt]

[garbon]

[HVC]

What's the turning point from European settlers to European immigrants?

[Threviel]

Swimming is like running track.  It is about speed, not endurance.  The closest analogue to swimming in terms of the key muscle groups would be pushups.

Maybe in a sprint, but even then the good sprinters in both the pool and track are very strong.

Anything beyond a sprint in the pool is definitely about endurance.  Do just a 200 IM and, after you have caught your breath, tell me endurance had nothing to do with your ability to just finish the distance. 

Swimming is very much an endurance sport. The world records for a 100m or a 200m are up towards a minute or two, more comparable to 400m or 800m track than 100m.

Short course 50m takes about 20-25s for a top athlete.

I started swimming about three years ago and I was very much out of breath far far far earlier than I was out of strength (and I was out of both embarrassingly fast, ye gods the cramps). Swimming also uses most muscles in the body, depending on style.

Strength is probably more important in swimming than in running, but endurance trumps strength in my mind. The weak guy with endurance will beat the strong guy without every time.