Quo Vadis GOP?

[Barrister]

Trump Derangement Syndrome I think. I am not really sure what exactly that means but I see it tossed around a lot. I presume it refers to somebody who hates Trump to such an extreme level it makes them go a little nuts.

I live with somebody that had TDS for four years. It was exhausting. Any and every form of Rational Discourse was completely out the window. This was, of course, offset by others around me that had whatever the Alphabet Soup Indicator was for the people that chugged the Trump Kool-Aid - they were equally exhausting and beyond Rational Discourse. Four years of my life flushed down the shitter of people that I thought that I knew & loved more worried about Scoring Points off of each other than being Human Beings. Weird scenes inside the gold mine...

 

Well, well... look what the cat dragged in...

[Jacob]

CCR :

[grumbler]

Well, well... look what the cat dragged in...

In Soviet Russia, CCR drags cat.

Great to see you posting, CCR!

[viper37]

What did Carlson (allegedly?) say about Trump?

He said he fucking hated Trump.

And there's no allegedly about it - these were from text messages that were disclosed as part of the Fox News / Dominion VOting Machines lawsuit.

I thought he appeared on stage at one of his convention back in the day?
Ah, Republicans.

[Barrister]

What did Carlson (allegedly?) say about Trump?

He said he fucking hated Trump.

And there's no allegedly about it - these were from text messages that were disclosed as part of the Fox News / Dominion VOting Machines lawsuit.

I thought he appeared on stage at one of his convention back in the day?
Ah, Republicans.

He's on tv 5 nights a week, and if he talks about Trump he praises him.

[C.C.R.]

BB, grumbs, Jake, Larch & Sheilbh - love & miss you guys, too. It's kind of refreshing dropping in here now & then and seeing the same 20-30-40 peeps doing the exact same fucking thing that they were doing 20 fucking years ago. The more things change...

At any rate, half-ass trying to be Topical:

I have spent the better part of my 30-year Adult Life usually working at various positions in factories, including a Range of salaried & hourly positions. What I've really, really been encountering the past six-seven years has been a groundswell of Blue Collar, Middle American Angst where people are sick of working twelve-hour shifts to support their families and then being called Racist because they're White, Sexist because they're Male, Homophobic because they're Straight, Criminals because they own Guns & Stupid because they actually manufacture real, tangible Trade Goods for a living instead of getting Philosophy degrees from Ju-Co to end up sweeping floors, and they have basically backed Trump as a big Middle Finger, Fuck You to the American Left.

I guess my question here is if there is anybody out there on *EITHER* side of the aisle that is at least making a minimal effort at placating this voting bloc. Half a century ago these were people firmly ensconced with the Democrats, but the Dems kind of turned their back on these folk in favor of Social Justice Issues & it came back to bite them in the ass with Trump. I'm telling y'all, this is a very, very real Bloc of people that need to be courted to March Over A Road Of Bones with the Competition.

These people are kind of my Homies since I spend so much of my life with them, even though I sort of quietly hate them because they can't quite seem to think their own way out of a wet paper bag. But, you know, this is literally the voting bloc that elected Trump - albeit they came together out of their hatred of Hillary. I'm just kind of curious if anybody is really & meaningfully giving the "Joe & Jolene Sixpack" vote (thank you AmericanScipio) any kind of serious appraisal, or is everybody pretty much writing them off as Middle American Simpletons to their own peril...

[Josquius]

What I've really, really been encountering the past six-seven years has been a groundswell of Blue Collar, Middle American Angst where people are sick of working twelve-hour shifts to support their families and then being called Racist because they're White, Sexist because they're Male, Homophobic because they're Straight, Criminals because they own Guns & Stupid because they actually manufacture real, tangible Trade Goods for a living instead of getting Philosophy degrees from Ju-Co to end up sweeping floors, and they have basically backed Trump as a big Middle Finger, Fuck You to the American Left

So what you're saying is you've been seeing a large amount of chronic misinformation.

I guess my question here is if there is anybody out there on *EITHER* side of the aisle that is at least making a minimal effort at placating this voting bloc. Half a century ago these were people firmly ensconced with the Democrats, but the Dems kind of turned their back on these folk in favor of Social Justice Issues & it came back to bite them in the ass with Trump. I'm telling y'all, this is a very, very real Bloc of people that need to be courted to March Over A Road Of Bones with the Competition.

Did they though?
You see the same shit in the UK. Here it absolutely 100% has zero basis in reality. The left has always concerned about social justice issues. It's basically the core of what being left wing is about.
Workers rights = women's rights = black rights = gay rights. Its all different sides of the same coin and it naturally fits together.
Traditional working class people are firmly on board with this.

I do know in the US this attitude you describe was born. And at best it's not primarily due to l the left suddenly changing. Rather its the republicans realising that rather than selling tax breaks for the rich to the poor they'd have a lot more success playing culture wars.

The problem on the left tends to be biting rather than just ignoring this shit as best they can and focusing on real issues instead.

[DGuller]

BB, grumbs, Jake, Larch & Sheilbh - love & miss you guys, too. It's kind of refreshing dropping in here now & then and seeing the same 20-30-40 peeps doing the exact same fucking thing that they were doing 20 fucking years ago. The more things change...

At any rate, half-ass trying to be Topical:

I have spent the better part of my 30-year Adult Life usually working at various positions in factories, including a Range of salaried & hourly positions. What I've really, really been encountering the past six-seven years has been a groundswell of Blue Collar, Middle American Angst where people are sick of working twelve-hour shifts to support their families and then being called Racist because they're White, Sexist because they're Male, Homophobic because they're Straight, Criminals because they own Guns & Stupid because they actually manufacture real, tangible Trade Goods for a living instead of getting Philosophy degrees from Ju-Co to end up sweeping floors, and they have basically backed Trump as a big Middle Finger, Fuck You to the American Left.

I guess my question here is if there is anybody out there on *EITHER* side of the aisle that is at least making a minimal effort at placating this voting bloc. Half a century ago these were people firmly ensconced with the Democrats, but the Dems kind of turned their back on these folk in favor of Social Justice Issues & it came back to bite them in the ass with Trump. I'm telling y'all, this is a very, very real Bloc of people that need to be courted to March Over A Road Of Bones with the Competition.

These people are kind of my Homies since I spend so much of my life with them, even though I sort of quietly hate them because they can't quite seem to think their own way out of a wet paper bag. But, you know, this is literally the voting bloc that elected Trump - albeit they came together out of their hatred of Hillary. I'm just kind of curious if anybody is really & meaningfully giving the "Joe & Jolene Sixpack" vote (thank you AmericanScipio) any kind of serious appraisal, or is everybody pretty much writing them off as Middle American Simpletons to their own peril...

It sounds like the problem is not that the left has abandoned that voting block, but rather that the diversity and inclusion programs are insufficient in American factories.  You shouldn't be offended at being called racist because you're white, you should be thinking of all the reasons why that is the case.

[Valmy]

The Dems have been pushing for higher wages and universal health care and now are getting on the protectionist train. We have Bernie Sanders and shit.

I guess I missed that part when the Democrats called the working class sexist, racist, and homophobic.

Whereas the Republicans vote for worse benefits, lower wages, and spend lots of time talking about how trans people need to destroyed and woke needs to die.

I guess I fail to see where one party has abandoned the working class for social issues and the other hasn't.

But yeah it is not like the Democrats can abandon racial, gender, or sexual minorities as those are key pillars of their support. The Republicans are politically right to exploit the unpopularity of those groups to gain an advantage and the Republican propaganda machine is incredibly powerful.

If Bernie Sanders is insufficiently pro-workers not really sure what they want.

I get that the corporate Dems did the whole free trade thing and that resulted in Trump but they are thoroughly spooked now. The era of free trade is pretty much dead now. The workers have spoken.

[Jacob]

I think both sides of the aisle is very much aware of the importance of that voting block and are competing hard for it. However, a good amount of the competition is not positive inducement but persuading them that the other side is disdainful of that block and actively working against their interests. Given the trend of former working class Democrats propelling Trump to victory, I don't think anyone following American politics discounts the importance of that block.

Independently of the actual truth on any given issue, I think the game is this:

The GOP need to convince (enough of) your block that wokery has gone mad, that policies that primarily benefit white and rich demographics are fair and reasonable and expressions of freedom, and that the excessive racism and bigotry that sometimes gets expressed is not that big a deal.

Conversely the Democrats need to convince (enough of) your block that the pseudo-fascist bigotry of the GOP is a significant danger, that policies that benefit marginalized groups (whether they also benefit those who are white and/ or well off or not) are fair and reasonable and not expressions of corrupt client politics, and that wokist zealotry happens less and is less significant than what the other side wants you to believe.

Obviously the culture war stuff figures pretty heavily into this. In my view, the GOP is also approaching economic (and many other issues) primarily through that culture war lens (I guess because it's working for them), while the Democrats would prefer not using a culture war approach for issues of economics etc.

Personally I think one side is significantly closer to the truth, more morally sound, and generally has better more useful policies than the other. Then again I'm neither American nor a blue collar worker.

[Jacob]

Tangentially, IMO the push to convince everyone that wokery has gone mad is pretty solid (note that this observation does not imply whether it's true that wokery is out of control or not).

I don't watch anything political on youtube at all (so there shouldn't be any cookies directing me that way). Mostly it's about film and music, and occasionally silly cat stuff.

The other day I wanted to show my boy some of the Japanese influences on Star Wars, so I searched for Akira Kurosawa clips (also Lone Wolf & Cub, since we'd just watched the newest Mandalorian episode). A few Westerns showed up in the suggestions sidebar, so we watched the opening scene of Once Upon a Time in the West (Westerns being another obvious influence on Star Was). Next thing I know, the suggestions have all sorts of "visiting so-and-so DESTROYS woke students" type clips.

Not the kind of thing I was looking for (or the inverse), but if you're looking for confirmation that wokery has gone mad you're going to get a full serving immediately.

I find the same thing is true when I look at history stuff. I'm only typically one or two clips away from something about how Western civilization is under threat.

Points of view from the other side of the spectrum - pro social justice or wokery things - only shows up if I look for it (I don't, honestly) or as fodder for "demolishing" it.

[Valmy]

I mean if there is any positive policy the workers want I am for it so long as it isn't culture war crap.

[Sheilbh]

Obviously the culture war stuff figures pretty heavily into this. In my view, the GOP is also approaching economic (and many other issues) primarily through that culture war lens (I guess because it's working for them), while the Democrats would prefer not using a culture war approach for issues of economics etc.

I'd query this. For example I mean I back ESG goals (and that's where my company's pension scheme is) - but issues of climate change, diversity, cultural issues etc are clearly contested political issues. I think re-packaging them as "values" that are adopted into corporate culture or company goals is, I think, a way of trying to do politics without having to do politics. It is a very neo-liberal way of achieving something: privatised, outside of democratic politics and not reliant on political mobilisation (possibly, instead, dependent on people not being mobilised). It's politics by other means. And as I say you can't invent consensus.

I do slightly sympathise with Republicans, for example saying, spell it out, run in an election and pass the legislation. (I think in some ways it's the mirror image of Republicans doing their agenda through taking over the courts.

More broadly on ESG specifically - most ESG frameworks are based on the UN's Sustainable Development Goals which are really admirable and good in investing. But that does give them a particular angle - and one thing that is often missing is the role of labour (except as part of the broader "governance" strand where they're normally one of several stakeholders). Again I think that aligns with a particular version of liberal politics - and one that I'd say many Democratic elites either come from, hope to be recruited to once their time in government is over or are very sympathetic to.

The other day I wanted to show my boy some of the Japanese influences on Star Wars, so I searched for Akira Kurosawa clips (also Lone Wolf & Cub, since we'd just watched the newest Mandalorian episode). A few Westerns showed up in the suggestions sidebar, so we watched the opening scene of Once Upon a Time in the West (Westerns being another obvious influence on Star Was). Next thing I know, the suggestions have all sorts of "visiting so-and-so DESTROYS woke students" type clips.

I know Lettow should've been a clue but at some point I will need to read something on the anime/far-right cross over because I don't know what's happening there

If Bernie Sanders is insufficiently pro-workers not really sure what they want.

Although he was never actually their candidate. Their candidates were Hilary Clinton and Joe Biden.

Generally I think there's somethinig structural that's happened in the West since the end of the Cold War. You see the same pattern across Europe of former industrial heartlands of the left de-industrialising. Parties of the left benefiting from a new coalition of the university educated, minorities and public sector workers. The old mass membership institutions of parties and unions fading away. And, in Europe, parties of the radical and far right capitalising in the old post-industrial heartlands.

In the UK, US and Australia because of their party systems I think it's more reflected within the dominant party of the right - which is why you have the tension over rhetoric and delivery. Because for example in France, for example, the left and Le Pen won't ever join in a coalition - they will both support protests against Macron's pension reforms. The party structures in the UK, US and Australia mean the new representatives of de-industrialised share a party with de-regulators representing traditional, very comfortable, very middle class, right wing areas. I think that fight is still unresolved but it's totally true that for all the rhetoric Trump's legislative achievements were the same as any Republic President could hope for: tax cuts and judges.

And I think there is a similar debate within the left in the Anglophone countries because of their party/electoral systems. Do you double down on your new coalition or do you try to fight back for post-industrial areas. I'm not sure what the answer is on that - I think Bernie and Biden are, in their own different ways, both guys who want to fight back while I think, say, Buttigieg, Harris and Warren are more on the retrench the new coalition side.

It may be that actually a new era of protectionism and industrial policy in the name of national security and because of the China risk actually settles all this anyway.

I have no idea where the US is going to end up - I've got more of a view on the UK. I think in the US a big difference is that I always wonder if we're getting the order wrong? We look at it as politicians egging on the culture war for political advantage. There is a bit of me that looks at the way US public opinion immediately polarises on any issues, on the way people are living in increasingly culturally similar communities, there is less social mobility etc. I wonder if the politicians are getting involved and intensifying that, but actually if it's cultural and economic trends driving the division while the political stuff is basically sort of opportunistic infections?

[grumbler]

I think that the appeal of the Right to the working class in the US is at least in part due to the simplicity of their proposed solutions to problems. Unsustainable immigration problems? Build a Wall!  Corruption in politics?  Lock her up!  Children murdering children in school?  Second Amendment!  More guns!

The Left finds it more difficult to coalesce around bumper-sticker policies because it is so much more intellectually fractured the bumper-sticker politics would alienate more of their current voting bloc than it would draw in more of their former voting bloc.  "Defund the police" was a disastrous stab at that.

I think that the relative decline in American education is a big part of the problem.  The world is getting more complex and interactive and students graduating from American high schools are not sufficiently trained in skepticism and ambiguity tolerance to cope.  Hence the preference for unambiguous bumper-sticker policies, without considering whether they would actually work.

[Sheilbh]

Also presumably race is probably a key part of why the Democrats are more fractious? It's one of the reasons why they are still an old school coalition-style party, while the GOP is often more "parliamentary" in style in having a fairly effective ideological line with simple solutions rather than lots of horse trading between constituent parts of a coalition.

Less than 20% of GOP voters are non-white and 40% of Democrat voters are - that might shift if Latinos and Asian-Americans continue to trend towards the GOP.