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Quo Vadis GOP?

Started by Syt, January 09, 2021, 07:46:24 AM

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Savonarola

I live in a deeply red Congressional district.  My congressman, Bill Posey, was one of the ones who voted to sustain the objections to Pennsylvania and Arizona votes.  From his standpoint, assuming his goal is to get re-elected, he made the right decision.  He'll never lose to a Democrat in the general election1.; his only possible challenge is in the primary.  Primary voters tend to be more extreme in there views than the average voter; so his only real risk is from a challenger even further to the right than he is.  Voting to sustain the objections demonstrated that he's sufficiently right-wing; while voting against might make him a suspected crypto-RINO, and therefore open him to a primary challenge.

For this reason I doubt the Republican Party will change very much from the events of this week.  A lot of districts simply aren't all that competitive, so there's no reason to change and every reason not to.

Trump himself might lose his influence, if his upcoming trials are embarrassing enough; similar to the way the Klan fell out as a political power in Indiana in the 1920s due to the DC Stephenson trial.

The Democrat party might change a little from this week, though, as I see CNN is writing human interest stories on the officers who were injured (and the one who was killed) during the riots.  I expect "Defund the Police" is no longer going to be an acceptable position (or at least not for a few years.)

1.)  Unless he's caught on camera saying something truly despicable; like "California oranges taste better than Florida oranges."
In Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace—and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock

Malthus

Sadly, I have to agree with those who say a change in the Republican Party, or its dissolution, is not likely in the near term as a result of Trump.

Change will only come when they start massively losing elections on a large scale, at the local level.
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane—Marcus Aurelius

Josquius

#17
I remember a similar thread to this not to long ago where I proposed that the republicans will become sans when the Democrats finally feel secure to go socialist.
In the two party system you have two options, either both fight for the centre, which we really aren't seeing in the US, or one tries to push things heavily whilst the other is moderate.
The moderate path is fairly closed off to the republicans whilst the Democrats hold that ground. Especially in light of all the bridges burned with trump. But as the far right becomes less of a concern the Democrats can become less about holding the Fort and more about change which will open ground for Liberal conservatives to come back from the dead.


Quote from: The Brain on January 09, 2021, 02:47:26 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 09, 2021, 02:45:12 PM
The demographics are against them but they've a few fair years left, especially in hick states.

I don't share your optimism regarding the decline in relative numbers of ignorant and hateful people.

The studies I've seen are promising.
Millennials to a small extent and digital natives to a huge extent are a lot more Internet savvy than the boomers. They generally don't fall for the same anything written on the Internet is true nonsense.

I remember an article on this being posted here not so long ago. The far right enjoys their peak success a few decades after a new communication medium is introduced, long enough for it to become part of everyone's life but not long enough for everyone to have grown up with it and inherantly understand it.

Hopefully with brekshit and trump we've hit the peak of the reactionary push back. The demographics point this way and in the US at least so too the election results.
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HisMajestyBOB

Three lovely Prada points for HoI2 help

Admiral Yi


grumbler

Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 09, 2021, 11:11:02 PM
paywalled

You are not missing anything.  The article is mostly about how nobody's doin' nothin'.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Jacob

I mean, it kind of makes sense.

They don't want to be primaried by Trumpists for sticking their head out too far. They don't want to give the Dems any kind of advantage or bludgeon that can be used against them. They don't have any moral fibre.

So they keep their heads down, waffle a bit, hope it goes away, that the pendulum will swing back at some point, and that they can still use their dogwhistles a little louder in the future.

Syt

Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 09, 2021, 11:11:02 PM
paywalled

QuoteRepublicans largely silent about consequences of deadly attack and Trump's role in inciting it

Three days after a mob attack on the U.S. Capitol carried out in President Trump's name, Republican leaders have yet to outline plans to hold anyone accountable or to alter a platform and priorities lashed to the outgoing Republican president.

Trump and some congressional Republicans, meanwhile, stepped up their efforts Saturday to head off Democratic efforts to impeach Trump over what they call his incitement of violence.

Behind closed doors, Trump and his son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner have encouraged allies to fight against a potential impeachment by issuing statements on social media or elsewhere that discourage or condemn the move, people familiar with the calls said.

It was not clear whether those efforts were having much success. Republican allies of the president were mainly muted Saturday, as pressure continued to mount among Democrats to try to force Trump from office before his term expires Jan. 20.

Meanwhile, a small group of Republicans who had voted to certify President-elect Joe Biden's victory released a letter Saturday calling on Biden to try to head off impeachment.

"In the spirit of healing and fidelity to our Constitution, I am asking that @JoeBiden formally request that Speaker Pelosi discontinue her efforts to impeach President Trump a second time," tweeted Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), sharing a copy of the letter signed by seven lawmakers.

A Biden spokesman on Saturday referred to the president-elect's comments the day before, when he said he would leave impeachment decisions to Congress.

Senate Republicans have not moved to investigate the assault on their workplace, which forced Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to flee with the help of his security team while Vice President Pence was whisked to a secure location.

Democrats are pushing to rapidly impeach the president a second time in less than two years — hoping to force Trump from office even a few days early.

Removing Trump by impeachment or by invoking the 25th Amendment governing unfitness for office remains a high hurdle, however, with less than two weeks remaining in his presidency. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has not made a formal determination to move forward with a second impeachment.

Pelosi said in a letter to Democratic members Saturday night that "it is absolutely essential that those who perpetrated the assault on our democracy be held accountable" and that there "must be a recognition that this desecration was instigated by the President." She did not specify an impending impeachment but told members to be ready for action.

"I urge you to be prepared to return to Washington this week," she said.

A draft impeachment resolution set to be introduced Monday garnered 180 cosponsors as of Saturday afternoon, according to Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), one of its authors.

McConnell (R-Ky.) is circulating a memo to Republican senators that outlines how a potential Senate trial would work in proceedings that would all but certainly occur after Trump leaves the White House.

Relatively few Republicans have publicly disavowed Trump, who was received enthusiastically during a phone-in appearance at a members-only gathering during the Republican National Committee meeting the morning after the mob attack.

Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, for example, criticized the president's actions since the election during a speech at the RNC. But she also embraced much of his presidency and praised his work in office, including his record on judicial appointments and the economy.

"And it's a real shame, because I am one who believes our country made some truly extraordinary gains in the last four years," she said. "President Trump and Republicans deserve great credit for that. We should not shy away from our accomplishments."

She tweeted Saturday that the "shameful display of the riots" was a gift to America's enemies and should never be allowed to recur, with no mention of the president's role in inciting the attack. She separately tweeted opposition to the actions of Twitter and other social media companies, who have banned Trump from their platforms for allegedly fomenting the threat of violence.

A seven-point strategy memo from the Republican Study Committee released Friday made no mention of the attack and recommitted to themes Trump has championed, including the investigation of alleged voter fraud.

"As we move forward, we have an opportunity now more than ever to show the freedom-loving American people we represent that we are here fighting for them!" Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) wrote.

"People are right to be frustrated with the way that states conducted the 2020 election. The rules were changed in the 11th hour in a way that sowed mistrust in our democratic process and many feel as if their votes weren't counted. That can't happen again," Banks wrote.

Sen. Patrick J. Toomey (R-Pa.) said Saturday that he believes Trump has "committed impeachable offenses," adding during an interview on Fox News that he is not sure what, if anything, his colleagues will do in coming days.

"I don't know what's going to land on the Senate floor, if anything," he said, referring to articles of impeachment expected to be voted on in the House next week. He did not directly call for Trump's removal and tempered his view about Trump's role.

"I don't know what they are going to send over, and one of the things that I'm concerned about, frankly, is whether the House would completely politicize something," Toomey said.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) remains the lone Senate Republican to call for Trump's resignation over what she told the Anchorage Daily News on Friday were his failures before and after the Capitol assault. The attack during certification of Biden's victory left five people dead, including a Capitol Police officer.

Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) has said he would consider impeachment.

While key lawmakers, Democrat and Republican, have called for a bipartisan and bicameral review of Wednesday's events, there has been no decision yet on what form the investigation will take. Several congressional committees have announced they intend to investigate, and a special joint panel could be created to handle the probe.

So far the response from lawmakers regarding the security implications of Wednesday's breach has been mostly free of political finger-pointing. But Republicans appear prepared to resist any attempt to expand a congressional probe beyond the scope of a security review and do not favor including the actions of Trump and other leaders who may have had a role in inciting the riot.

In a signal of how the investigation could become partisan, a freshman House Republican, Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana, sent a letter to Pelosi on Friday, noting that the top House security official, the sergeant at arms, "works under the direction of the Speaker."

"Please advise what processes were directed by you to provide enhanced security . . . in light of the known and anticipated major public demonstration on January 6th," she wrote. Spartz made no mention of the Senate sergeant of arms, who works under the Republican majority leader.

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Friday called the assault "un-American," and said he had told Trump on Wednesday that "he had a great responsibility to intervene to quell the mob and start the healing process for our country."

McCarthy said nothing about Trump's culpability in falsely claiming victory and urging supporters to help him overturn the election, or in encouraging thousands to march on the Capitol. He was among the majority of House Republicans who voted to overturn the election after the siege.

"Over the coming weeks we will work with law enforcement to bring anyone responsible for the violence to justice. Lawlessness and extremism have no place in our way of life," McCarthy said in Friday's statement, urging that "partisans of all stripes" come together around a peaceful transfer of power.

"Impeaching the President with just 12 days left in his term will only divide our country more," McCarthy said.

In McConnell's impeachment memo, obtained by The Washington Post, the majority leader's office noted that the Senate will not reconvene for substantive business until Jan. 19, which means the earliest possible date that an impeachment trial could begin would be the day before Biden is inaugurated.

Although the Senate will hold two pro forma sessions next week, on Jan. 12 and Jan. 15, it is barred from conducting any kind of business during those days — including "beginning to act on received articles of impeachment from the House" — without agreement from all 100 senators. With a cadre of Trump-allied senators in the Republican conference, that unanimous consent is highly unlikely.

Trump has not spoken to Pence since before the assault, when he urged Pence to try to block congressional certification of Biden's victory, according to two people familiar with the relationship, who like others interviewed spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the president's actions on the record. Trump remains angry at Pence for refusing to do as Trump wished.

Pence plans to attend Biden's inauguration on Jan. 20, a person familiar with his plans said Saturday. Trump has said he will not attend, breaking a long-standing tradition.

Trump remained out of sight Saturday, and unnaturally silent. Twitter had permanently revoked his account on Friday evening, removing his accustomed direct broadcast system to nearly 90 million followers.

Trump spent much of the day Saturday railing about Twitter taking his account, according to two officials. The president has not said anything about the five people who died in the attack, including a Capitol Police officer, nor has he moved to lower the flags of the U.S. government in their honor. He does not plan to make that order and has complained to advisers that he is being treated unfairly, two people familiar with his comments said.

Some White House officials are concerned about the president's liability from a broader investigation into the event. Trump knew for days there would be a march and wanted to participate himself, only to be thwarted for his own security, officials said.

A number of lawyers who participated in Trump's last impeachment defense, including Jay Sekulow, Pat Philbin and Pat Cipollone, would be unlikely to participate this time in defending the president, one adviser said. Possibilities include Trump's personal lawyer, Rudolph W. Giuliani, or defense attorney Alan Dershowitz, the adviser said.

Party officials remain torn over what to do about Trump in the final days — with many ready to cut ties but wary because the party's grass-roots activists and supporters are still largely with him.

"If you can replicate his draw amongst rural, working-class voters without the insanity, you have a permanent governing majority," said Josh Holmes, a top adviser to McConnell.

I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops.
—Stephen Jay Gould

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

garbon

How could we possibly heal when nothing has changed?
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."

I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

Syt

Quote from: garbon on January 10, 2021, 02:54:52 AM
How could we possibly heal when nothing has changed?

I saw several people on Twitter likening the behavior of the GOP to an abusive partner. "Sure, things went wrong, but let's put that behind us and move forward."
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops.
—Stephen Jay Gould

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

Darth Wagtaros

Why would anything change?  Yeah, the GOP has poison oozing through its pours.  But it is more a problem for anything nearby.  Party's only function is to win elections and after this it will win more than ever as big government socialismcommies organize to Red Dawn in and take everyone's guns.
PDH!

FunkMonk

Quote from: Jacob on January 10, 2021, 12:57:54 AM
I mean, it kind of makes sense.

They don't want to be primaried by Trumpists for sticking their head out too far. They don't want to give the Dems any kind of advantage or bludgeon that can be used against them. They don't have any moral fibre.

So they keep their heads down, waffle a bit, hope it goes away, that the pendulum will swing back at some point, and that they can still use their dogwhistles a little louder in the future.

I think it's worse than this. They're genuinely terrified of their own voters. If a Republican says the wrong thing, the base will send them death threats and try to blow up their house or kidnap their family for being a RINO traitor. These are the same people who stormed the Capitol looking to lynch the Vice President and planted pipe bombs.

Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV.

Sheilbh

Quote from: FunkMonk on January 10, 2021, 07:41:34 AMI think it's worse than this. They're genuinely terrified of their own voters. If a Republican says the wrong thing, the base will send them death threats and try to blow up their house or kidnap their family for being a RINO traitor. These are the same people who stormed the Capitol looking to lynch the Vice President and planted pipe bombs.
I think that's definitely part of it - I was thinking of it when I saw Roger Stone's recent Parler post:
Let's bomb Russia!

garbon

"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."

I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

The Brain

Who or what is Roger Stone?
Women want me. Men want to be with me.