News:

And we're back!

Main Menu

What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?

Started by Caliga, November 07, 2020, 12:07:22 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Josquius

No. I'm pretty confident after the coup attempt trump has no chance.
Im far more worried of someone just as shitty as trump but without the taint and maybe some competence.
██████
██████
██████

OttoVonBismarck

Quote from: Josquius on June 04, 2023, 09:59:40 AMNo. I'm pretty confident after the coup attempt trump has no chance.
Im far more worried of someone just as shitty as trump but without the taint and maybe some competence.

Trump's polling now in a general in the mid-40s. This is exactly where he polled and actually finished up in both 2020 and 2016. Mid-40s isn't an easy win, but as 2016 shows, if the conditions are right, it can win you the electoral college.

PJL

Quote from: Josquius on June 04, 2023, 09:59:40 AMNo. I'm pretty confident after the coup attempt trump has no chance.
Im far more worried of someone just as shitty as trump but without the taint and maybe some competence.

I disagree, your constant naievity on this continues to surprise me. I would be very surprised if Trump wasn't re-elected next time. Populists are very good at getting re-elected if they fail first time. Also the 2020 elections were pretty unique in their circumstances, I can't see that happening again. The only saving grace with Trump is this he is very impulsive and prone to short term thinking, and would not be as effective in his agenda as someone like De Santis.

Josquius

I'm solely an outsider looking in. I don't have an American granny to gauge the feelings of the general public.
But I don't see where the anti trump conservatives would have flipped. Everything trump has done has further entrenched the shit head vote at the expense of the people with a brain vote.

Biden on the other hand has turned out a fair bit better than the generic let's just have a boring 4 years trump replacement.

The only concern i would see is if people don't take the threat seriously enough and the dem turnout is low in key states.

To change track - anyone seen a good writeup of Wtf happened to Harris? She had things made but has just... Vanished.
██████
██████
██████

grumbler

The stuff I've read on Harris indicates that her main failings are
  • She doesn't take even constructive criticism well, which is why she has so much trouble keeping her office staffed and working with Biden's staff.
  • She's seen as a flip-flopper who now espouses causes she opposed when California's AG
  • Her speaking engagements are too often marred by gaffes or childlike enthusiasm that come across as fake
  • She hasn't developed any positions or causes about which to be excited or about which she can be seen as someone who actually accomplishes things.
  • She lacks charisma and the "it" factor (though so do many of her competitors and her boss).

For instance, she was charged with developing a strategy for reducing the number of asylum-seekers on the Mexican border.  Her accomplishment was to go to Guatemala and tell them that they shouldn't try to go to the US because the US wouldn't let them in.  This useless gesture angered the right for being so feeble, and the left for being so hypocritical (given that her parents were immigrants).  She's never been to the border itself in this role... not even when Biden himself visited.

It is true that the VP role, by design, is supposed to be a background role.  But even Biden accomplished more as VP in his first two years than she has, and Biden wasn't the "first" anything.

Harris can recover, but it is going to take a lot of work and she's going to have to start being decisive.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

OttoVonBismarck

The Vice Presidency is a bit of a weird job, the consensus is that it is often a political career springboard, but history of course shows that is not always the case. For example, Dan Quayle was not a super well known Senator from Indiana, but he was considered a respectable option for VP. In the Vice Presidency he quickly erased any chance of having a relevant political career afterward.

The VP spot can be a bit of a risk, some politicians seem able to "work it" to transform themselves into viable Presidential candidates. Other politicians, I think the office actually harms their trajectory. There is a chance that Harris would have been better served remaining a Senator from California and continuing to work on a national brand.

I actually don't know a lot about Kamala's California political career, but California is not an easy State to win statewide elections in (at least in the primaries, as a Democrat in the general it is pretty easy), and she won statewide both as AG and Senator which suggests she is not politically inept. But she may not be suited to the Vice Presidency.

The Minsky Moment

The key qualifications for being an effective VP are being an experienced operator within the executive branch, having the trust of the President, and getting reasonably along with the President's people.  Cheney - SOB as he may have been - was effective because he ticked all those boxes.  Gore lacked the first but got along reasonably well with Clinton and his people and was smart enough to figure out some niches to fill.  Biden played a similar role for Obama.  Bush Sr. didn't have warm relations with Reagan but was a very experienced operator and was close to some key players in the Reagan White House.  Quayle OTOH had none of these qualifications.  Neither did LBJ who if Kennedy had lived would likely have been forgotten to history other than having his name on an obscure DC office building.

My sense is that Biden likes Harris but that she lacks good relationships with the President's people and has no substantive skills or experience to contribute to running a national executive.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

The Minsky Moment

I would add that paradoxically operational ability and experience with the executive branch can be more useful to a VP than a President.  A President that has a strong personality and public appeal can set priorities and get people to do the detailed executive work - the FDR model.  The VP OTOH has figure out a way to make a contribution despite lacking any formal public authority or responsibility.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Syt

I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops.
—Stephen Jay Gould

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

The Minsky Moment

Joe Biden was arrested??!!  And what was Trump doing speaking at the White House??
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Barrister

Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Josquius

"However, Yoni Appelbaum, deputy editor of The Atlantic, offered one theory for Biden's closing statement. Applebaum tweeted, "Biden has the extremely odd habit of ending his remarks with cryptic phrases whose significance is mostly legible only to him. 'God save the queen'  is also what he said right after certifying Trump's election in 2017. He seems to use it to mean something like, 'God help us all.'"

.... :unsure:
Right....that.... I've never heard of this. Thats bizzare. I need more examples.
██████
██████
██████

Hamilcar

He needs to end the next State of the Union speech with " Iä! Iä! Cthulhu fhtagn! Ph'nglui mglw'nfah Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn!"

Sheilbh

Quote from: Syt on June 14, 2023, 01:33:40 AM"Fair" and "balanced"
The producer behind that, formerly of Tucker Carlson, has now been fired.

I'm perhaps being a little conspiratorial - but can't help but wonder if he'll end up back with him on whatever this Twitter show he's trying to do is?
Let's bomb Russia!

Jacob

That doesn't have to be conspiratorial. Could simply be "we worked well together in the past, let's work together again." Seems pretty natural.