What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?

[Valmy]

You need to stop making shit up.

I don't know if Bibi and Putin are friendly but Bibi is absolutely a right wing wannabe strongman. He is currently attempting to destroy the Israeli judiciary.

He's not killing or jailing his opponents.

Yeah he hasn't nuked anybody either. A real fucking saint.

[Admiral Yi]

Was listening to an NPR interview about Biden's campaign situation.

Interviewee made several interesting comments.

The fact that Trump is facing so many criminal charges should be an asset, but that card is not being played because Biden thinks doing so would undercut his campaign promise to restore the independence and integrity of the DOJ.

Upholding democracy should be an asset, but whereas voters like democracy, they don't like it that much in the abstract.

Abortion should a major asset (interviewee said it's the single strongest weapon in terms of moving swing and disaffected GOP voters) but Biden is an 81 Catholic dude who's not that gung ho about abortion rights.

[Zanza]

The Democrats should nominate someone like Newsom who could easily capitalize on these topics.

[Admiral Yi]

The Democrats should nominate someone like Newsom who could easily capitalize on these topics.

Not sure how a different candidate could capitalize on #1 and #2.  Gavin Newsom leading chants of "lock him up" dilutes the Democratic brand.

Running against an incumbent of your party in a primary is more than just an act of disloyalty, it's also running the opposition's campaign for them.  I'm old enough to remember how Teddy Kennedy's campaign against Carter hurt him.

[DGuller]

How much time is left for Joe Biden to bow out anyway, hypothetically speaking?  Can he win the primaries and then ask his delegates to vote for his chosen successor?  I hope someone is thinking of these backup plans, the stakes are just astronomic this year.

[Sheilbh]

Well LBJ pulled out on March 31 1968 - admittedly after McCarthy did well prompting Bobby to get in the race.

[Valmy]

Well LBJ pulled out on March 31 1968 - admittedly after McCarthy did well prompting Bobby to get in the race.

Turned out to be a good thing he did, as he started suffering the heart attacks just a year or so later that finally killed him in 1973. Also kind of funny to think that LBJ was only 60 when he retired from public life. Today he would be one of the junior members of the Democratic Party.

[Admiral Yi]

How much time is left for Joe Biden to bow out anyway, hypothetically speaking?  Can he win the primaries and then ask his delegates to vote for his chosen successor?  I hope someone is thinking of these backup plans, the stakes are just astronomic this year.

I would think that various faithless elector laws would prevent that.

[Zanza]

Aren't the faithless elector laws about the Electoral College instead of the party conventions?

[Admiral Yi]

That sounds right.  I retract.

[Sheilbh]

Turned out to be a good thing he did, as he started suffering the heart attacks just a year or so later that finally killed him in 1973. Also kind of funny to think that LBJ was only 60 when he retired from public life. Today he would be one of the junior members of the Democratic Party.

Yeah - although he had a heart attack in the late 50s which caused him to stop smoking immediately and make other lifestyle changes from his doctors because he wasn't going to let mortality get in the way of his ambition

My understanding is that basically the second he left the White House he started smoking etc again. So that may have had an impact on his subsequent health.

[Zanza]

I would have to check the treaties, but in the U.S. at least it doesn't work that way. If someone asserts they feel "in danger", they are entitled to an adjudication. There is no list of countries where we can say "well there are zero valid asylees from that country." So we have to adjudicate people from Honduras / Guatemala, where the primary "risks" are mostly domestic crime, and the reality is most of these are economic migrants.

Ok, understood. We have defined "safe counties of origin" for asylum seekers here. But even if you have that, deportation itself is the hard part. The origin countries often do not want their people back...

[Sheilbh]

The variance within the EU - not just for asylum seekers but all non-EU migrants who are no longer legally able to stay - is pretty huge. France especially is very, very striking:


But stable for EU as a whole:


Not sure on the ordered numbers bit for the UK, but otherwise it's the standard story. I'd argue of falling state capacity as a consequence of austerity and the ongoing contrast of tougher rhetoric and weaker policy:


Edit: Althought just to clarify this isn't just asylum seekers so I'm not sure it's even a safe country issue. I think it's enforcement problems, not least because you can be returned to another country.

Of the ordered bit the top four countries are Morocco, Algeria, Turkiye and Georgia (which I think is down more to enforcement failures) and Afghanistan (which is not a safe country). But Georgians, Abanians, Moldovans, Turks and Indians are most likely to be returned to another/third country.

[viper37]

Abortion is again illegal in Idaho.

[Sheilbh]

Erm. This seems weird:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/06/pentagon-took-3-days-to-inform-white-houses-nsc-of-austins-hospitalization-00134176