US Election Week 2020

[Sheilbh]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
I want to thank Emily Murphy at GSA for her steadfast dedication and loyalty to our Country. She has been harassed, threatened, and abused – and I do not want to see this happen to her, her family, or employees of GSA. Our case STRONGLY continues, we will keep up the good...
...fight, and I believe we will prevail! Nevertheless, in the best interest of our Country, I am recommending that Emily and her team do what needs to be done with regard to initial protocols, and have told my team to do the same.

"The election situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage."

[FunkMonk]

"initiate protocols" 

[Habbaku]

I "love" that Trump couches his GSA decision in language that blames his decision on the GSA employee.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Just as a quick update with Michigan certifying Biden is at 259 "secured" electoral votes. At this point when Nevada likely certifies tomorrow, which would put Biden at 265, the only path Trump would have would be to actually reverse the results in all three remaining states: PA, WI, and AZ. Failure to do so in even one of them fails to prevent Biden from reaching 270. As has been mentioned a lot, he's not going to overturn the results in a single one of these states, so in all real respects Trump's extremely thin gap is basically shut tight now. Note that Pennsylvania's certification no longer appears in doubt, all meaningful legal claims have been dismissed and today was the deadline to file any new ones, and to my knowledge none have been filed. The only reason Boockvar has not certified is she needs to wait for all of Pennsylvania's counties, and as is not unusual in Pennsylvania a couple counties are lagging behind. It is likely she will be able to certify Pennsylvania in 2-3 days at which point Biden will probably be at 275 EVs locked up.

Arizona is basically in no risk of not certifying on the 30th--Mohave County with an entirely Republican canvassing board certified their results today and were the last county to do so. Importantly other Republican counties like Maricopa certified unanimously. The Democrat Arizona SecState has an entirely clear path to certification.

So in short every effort the Trump campaign has undertaken to actually overturn the election has failed. There is all but zero doubt that Joe Biden will be sworn in as the new President on inauguration day.

Additionally a number of significant Republicans broke ranks today. While a majority of the GOP House and Senate still have continued to support Trump's efforts or remain silent, enough Senators and House members have broken away that any attempt at congressional action would be all but impossible. Major figures in the party and close Trump allies like Chrs Christie have come out against continuing the fight. Additionally a large group of CEOs came out today as well advocating against Trump's efforts. This importantly includes several major money donors of the GOP and even some Trump loyalists in the NYC business community who have maintained vague support for him but joined the call to end the fight. While the GOP by and large did not account for us well in this direct and damaging assault on our democratic norms, enough of them did that Trump's political path is also just as closed up as his legal path.

[FunkMonk]

In Languish terminology, organized Trumpist resistance has effectively been destroyed. Multiple divisions of the Biden Armored Corps and Kamala's Rangers have encircled and bypassed large pockets of the shattered Trumpist armies. We estimate advance Democratic elements to be in Washington by January 20th.

[The Minsky Moment]

What is an expedited briefing?

It means they want an accelerated hearing - so a very fast briefing schedule has to be set.  But since they aren't seeking the expedite the merits, the case will be mooted by the time the merits are heard.  It's a surrender.

[Richard Hakluyt]

No coup then; but Trump can plausibly (at least to his voters) claim that he has acted in the best interests of the USA 

Is there hope that a bi-partisan position can be adopted so that the next set of elections can be widely believed in?

[Admiral Yi]

Perhaps those who predicted a much worse outcome would like to admit they were wrong.

[Tamas]

Perhaps those who predicted a much worse outcome would like to admit they were wrong.

[DGuller]

Perhaps those who predicted a much worse outcome would like to admit they were wrong.

I don't think it's knowable.  I shudder to think how the situation would change if one state rather than three would swing the results, and if the Senate were in Democrat hands.  This time we were saved because anyone remotely reasonable just didn't see a path to flipping the results, and even still it's widely believed by Republicans that Biden stole the election.

[Sheilbh]

Perhaps those who predicted a much worse outcome would like to admit they were wrong.

I mean he's tried it. There's been a few less scrupulous Republican state level officials going along. As DG says if it was closer, I've no idea how this would go.

What happened was Biden won quite convincingly, both in votes in the states he swung and in the EC margin. Not as convincingly as I'd have liked but enough to make it very difficult.

But 70% of Republicans don't think it was a free and fair election which is challenging from a loser's consent point of view - which is key for a functioning democracy.

[alfred russel]

Just as a quick update with Michigan certifying Biden is at 259 "secured" electoral votes. At this point when Nevada likely certifies tomorrow, which would put Biden at 265, the only path Trump would have would be to actually reverse the results in all three remaining states: PA, WI, and AZ. Failure to do so in even one of them fails to prevent Biden from reaching 270. As has been mentioned a lot, he's not going to overturn the results in a single one of these states, so in all real respects Trump's extremely thin gap is basically shut tight now. Note that Pennsylvania's certification no longer appears in doubt, all meaningful legal claims have been dismissed and today was the deadline to file any new ones, and to my knowledge none have been filed. The only reason Boockvar has not certified is she needs to wait for all of Pennsylvania's counties, and as is not unusual in Pennsylvania a couple counties are lagging behind. It is likely she will be able to certify Pennsylvania in 2-3 days at which point Biden will probably be at 275 EVs locked up.

Arizona is basically in no risk of not certifying on the 30th--Mohave County with an entirely Republican canvassing board certified their results today and were the last county to do so. Importantly other Republican counties like Maricopa certified unanimously. The Democrat Arizona SecState has an entirely clear path to certification.

So in short every effort the Trump campaign has undertaken to actually overturn the election has failed. There is all but zero doubt that Joe Biden will be sworn in as the new President on inauguration day.

Additionally a number of significant Republicans broke ranks today. While a majority of the GOP House and Senate still have continued to support Trump's efforts or remain silent, enough Senators and House members have broken away that any attempt at congressional action would be all but impossible. Major figures in the party and close Trump allies like Chrs Christie have come out against continuing the fight. Additionally a large group of CEOs came out today as well advocating against Trump's efforts. This importantly includes several major money donors of the GOP and even some Trump loyalists in the NYC business community who have maintained vague support for him but joined the call to end the fight. While the GOP by and large did not account for us well in this direct and damaging assault on our democratic norms, enough of them did that Trump's political path is also just as closed up as his legal path.

I think in Georgia if you can show fraud, the certification of results can be set aside. The point being that it isn't necessarily "game over" just because Biden gets to 270 in certified states.

Which is tragic because i'm still waiting to get paid out on predictit, which is still giving Trump a 10% chance of winning reelection.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I mean if you can show fraud you'd be doing something Trump has been unable to even attempt to do in 31 cases so far--mind you not only has Trump's team failed to show fraud, when asked by judges they specifically make it clear they aren't even legally asserting fraud. There is substantial difference between saying there is fraud in a tweet or in an interview at a landscaping company and demonstrating fraud to any legal standard.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Perhaps those who predicted a much worse outcome would like to admit they were wrong.

I mean he's tried it. There's been a few less scrupulous Republican state level officials going along. As DG says if it was closer, I've no idea how this would go.

What happened was Biden won quite convincingly, both in votes in the states he swung and in the EC margin. Not as convincingly as I'd have liked but enough to make it very difficult.

But 70% of Republicans don't think it was a free and fair election which is challenging from a loser's consent point of view - which is key for a functioning democracy.

Right, for me I knew this was over because  Biden's win involved flipping 5 states vs Hillary and several of those states Democrats controlled the certifying authority. I'm not particularly smart on legal issues, but I knew enough about "ordinary" election lawsuits to know that you need a really close and really convoluted situation to hope to overturn even a single state. And then if you have to do that in some combination of states your task is even harder. It's even harder still if you have to do it with the political authorities in opposition to you in that state.

Like take Florida 2000 where the results were extremely close and there was genuine ballot disputes. It was huge for how that went down that Bush had the nominal lead, but it was even bigger that his party controlled the State legislature, Governor's mansion, and Secretary of State's office. A Democrat Secretary of State in Florida probably doesn't certify in this scenario for example, which changes the legal landscape quite a bit.

Posit a scenario if you will where Biden flipped WI and MI, but not AZ, and where GA was the same margin it was here. That would give you 259 Biden and 263 Trump, with GA being decisive. From what I can tell Raffensperger in Georgia is an actual straight shooter, so I do not think he would just corruptly give that state to Trump by arbitrarily blocking certification of certain counties etc. But Brian Kemp is not a stand up guy, I would be extremely suspicious of him certifying if Georgia was decisive and not just 1 of 6, in the reality we live in Kemp certifying was the most logical thing to do--it gets his office and his state out of the crosshairs to a degree, and he's not actually materially doing much--everyone knows all these other states controlled by Democrats are going to certify for Biden so it's whatever. But with Georgia being the decisive state? I don't think Kemp certifies. In fact I think he's out in public just as strong as Trump is making assertions about improper ballots and etc. I think you end up in a serious legal battle for Georgia in this scenario with Trump trying his hardest to disenfranchise thousands of voters, and the full force of the GOP would be behind him.

Make no mistake, the reason the entirety of the GOP isn't behind Trump is because they see no real path to victory, it's not out of morality.

[FunkMonk]

I know Trump not conceding and trying to string out the electoral process so he could destroy democracy is not a good thing, but I feel like since election night he and his team have basically acted like complete morons and it's felt like every day since then he's lost the election all over again in new and humiliating ways, and that makes me quite happy.