US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[katmai]

Don't stare into the abyss funk.

[fromtia]

Browsing right-wing Twitter is fascinating

https://socialbubble.so/

I have Fox and WSJ in my apple news feed and try my best to read those. Im quite a way to the left of the other news organizations I follow. This is a hilarious link because Ive never really paid attention to Tim Pool and Laura Ingraham before. I see a Trump tweet on there where hes pivoted back to his 2016 campaign platform though, might be too late.

[crazy canuck]

You try to read Fox?

[FunkMonk]

I really hope Joe Biden wins because it'll be sad to be completely owned by these morons on the right who are envisioning a Trump win in California or New York.

[Eddie Teach]

So apparently moderates are to the right of centrists. Who knew.

[alfred russel]

I really hope Joe Biden wins because it'll be sad to be completely owned by these morons on the right who are envisioning a Trump win in California or New York.

I've bet $20k on this election--all on Biden in various formats--but about $10k in safe bets like California and New York -- I have $1700 bet in each of those states.

What is stunning to me is that people took the other side of bets at 93% Biden -- assuming Biden wins that means people paid me (before fees) over $250 thinking that Trump would win those states. That isn't just idiots saying stupid shit--actual people put their money on the line thinking it would happen.

Somewhere out there I imagine a poor uneducated man who loves Trump and bets everything he has that Trump will win. It turns out Trump defies the odds: all the experts are wrong, the polls are wrong, the markets are wrong, and Trump is reelected. But this poor man is financially ruined, because he bet on Trump in states like California and New York where Trump had no conceivable hope.

[DGuller]

Moderate as a noun is a contemptible term in politics, because it only makes sense in the context of "both sides-ism".  It usually goes with "I'm not like those idiots in either party, I'm a moderate *bumps chest proudly*".  It makes sense to be a moderate liberal or a moderate conservative, but being just a "moderate" is nonsense, it just makes you a slave of the Overton window.

[FunkMonk]

I really hope Joe Biden wins because it'll be sad to be completely owned by these morons on the right who are envisioning a Trump win in California or New York.

I've bet $20k on this election--all on Biden in various formats--but about $10k in safe bets like California and New York -- I have $1700 bet in each of those states.

What is stunning to me is that people took the other side of bets at 93% Biden -- assuming Biden wins that means people paid me (before fees) over $250 thinking that Trump would win those states. That isn't just idiots saying stupid shit--actual people put their money on the line thinking it would happen.

Somewhere out there I imagine a poor uneducated man who loves Trump and bets everything he has that Trump will win. It turns out Trump defies the odds: all the experts are wrong, the polls are wrong, the markets are wrong, and Trump is reelected. But this poor man is financially ruined, because he bet on Trump in states like California and New York where Trump had no conceivable hope.

Those people are just completely in the Trumpworld bubble. All the media they consume boils down to "Trump will win a bunch more states than he did in 2016" to "TRUMP LANDSLIDE 500+ EV"

These people remember 2016 as "Everyone thought I was wrong, but in fact I was RIGHT" and think it applies to everything forever.

[Berkut]

Moderate as a noun is a contemptible term in politics, because it only makes sense in the context of "both sides-ism".  It usually goes with "I'm not like those idiots in either party, I'm a moderate *bumps chest proudly*".  It makes sense to be a moderate liberal or a moderate conservative, but being just a "moderate" is nonsense, it just makes you a slave of the Overton window.

I like how you move from "It IS contemptible" ase on "it usually". Of course, your definition of a moderate today, as it has been for years, is not actually held by people who call themselves moderates. But you've never cared before about saying that people are something they consistently tell you they are not, so I doubt you will now.

[fromtia]

You try to read Fox?

Im afraid so. I actually used to really like the WSJ 20 or 25 years ago, I bought it in paper version somewhat frequently. It's editorials seem to be a sort of attempt to add some sophistries to Trumpism these days though.

[Rex Francorum]

So here is my a bit spiced up prediction (to make things interesting). It might be bold but not entirely unimaginable.

Interesting that you rate both GA and TX blue, but PA red.

Yeah it is why I said it was bold. I know PA is safest for Biden than Texas or Georgia, but I am just spicing the things up. For the sake of the prediction game.

[DGuller]

Moderate as a noun is a contemptible term in politics, because it only makes sense in the context of "both sides-ism".  It usually goes with "I'm not like those idiots in either party, I'm a moderate *bumps chest proudly*".  It makes sense to be a moderate liberal or a moderate conservative, but being just a "moderate" is nonsense, it just makes you a slave of the Overton window.

I like how you move from "It IS contemptible" ase on "it usually". Of course, your definition of a moderate today, as it has been for years, is not actually held by people who call themselves moderates. But you've never cared before about saying that people are something they consistently tell you they are not, so I doubt you will now.

Sometimes what people are is not exactly what they think they are when it comes to politics, so their definition of themselves should not be the final word.  You should know that better than anyone, you've been defining my political beliefs over my strenuous objections for at least a decade.

[viper37]

This guy predicts a 90% probability of a Trump win:
http://primarymodel.com/

He made his predictions on March 2nd 2020 and he sticks by it even now.

[Eddie Teach]

Amazing, he's been predicting primaries since 1912.

[katmai]

Uh ok.

Directed at Viper not Teach