Covid-19 lockdown check-in

[Eddie Teach]

If you get it from a passing stranger you won't be able to trace regardless of the setting.

[Sheilbh]

Surely the chance of infection when a carrier is inches from you is larger than zero. In which case I think it can be considered common courtesy and survival instinct to take a step to the side.

Plus when you have a bunch of people closely together I don't think it can matter that drastically that they are not indoors.

From everything I've read it matters hugely whether you're indoors or outdoors. It really spreads in enclosed spaces. So it will spread outdoors - but it's more of an issues at, say, a barbecue in someone's back garden or a kids birthday party.

There was a paper in the BMJ on risks which had this graphic that I quite like:


Outdoors is a far safer environment than indoors and stuff like hiking or chatting in a park is very low risk even without masks. Going to the pub or a restaurant or a big shop are more of an issue. But if you're outdoors you're almost always in low-medium risk territory.

Finally, I am no expert but wouldn't it be far harder to prove and trace an outdoor transmission than an indoor one?

Yeah - but my understanding is people have done studies of big mass events from before and during the pandemic - so Champions League games, BLM protests etc.

[Tamas]

Thanks for looking it up Sheilbh, but I doubt people are mass-ignoring the guidance (1m plus) after carefully researching the possible impact of doing so.

Ignoring the currently in effect pandemic rules may have far less impact when clogging a park walking path  than piling up in a pub, but it still is ignoring it.

[garbon]

Is medium risk now something to scoff at?

[Sheilbh]

Thanks for looking it up Sheilbh, but I doubt people are mass-ignoring the guidance (1m plus) after carefully researching the possible impact of doing so.

No but I think people have a sense - outdoors is safer than indoors, masks are safer than not - and basically doing their own risk evaluation for how the behave, what do they feel comfortable doing. I think that's in part inevitable once things move from simple lockdown to a more nuanced world - I also think people will just ignore the government after Cummings. I think they sacrificed credibility and trust so people will make their own judgements now.

[Tamas]

Well yes exactly and that's my problem :p

Feels like we have gotten past a critical mass of people who have made the judgement call that it is no concern of theirs and this is why we see this resurgence Europe-wide

[celedhring]

Well yes exactly and that's my problem :p

Feels like we have gotten past a critical mass of people who have made the judgement call that it is no concern of theirs and this is why we see this resurgence Europe-wide

Yeah, I think people look at the low casualty rates and think "see? Not a big deal anymore" and lower their guard.

[Zanza]

That's a fair question though. How big of a deal is it when comparing to the definitely disastrous effects of a second full-scale lockdown? Definitely something we should try to quickly get an idea about... 

[derspiess]

What is it like to work in an empty stadium?  And what effect do you think it has on the players - not having to deal with crowd noise on the road is a big plus for the offence but I wonder if the lack of a crowd is noticed in other ways.

Feels like a practice where they hosted another team, as would sometimes happen in preseason.  I'm able to hear a lot more of what is said on the sideline (and field, for that matter).  But it's also a little disorienting.  If I'm working on a tablet or something and am not able to watch a play, I don't have a crowd reaction to tell me how the play went.  They have fake crowd noise over the speakers but it rarely matches up to what is going on in the game.

I think it's generally helping visiting teams with not having to deal with crowd noise as you mentioned.  For individual players, some guys get all hyped up by a large noisy crowd (even if they're the visiting team), but you'd have to think for some guys it takes a little pressure off.

[Sheilbh]

That's a fair question though. How big of a deal is it when comparing to the definitely disastrous effects of a second full-scale lockdown? Definitely something we should try to quickly get an idea about...

Yes. It seems like we won't be going into "lockdown" again, because from everything I've read schools, workplaces and public transport will stay open. But there might be closures in the hospitality/leisure sectors (presumably with targeted economic support for those businesses).

I've said before I think it's really key that we do everything we can to keep schools open now.

[Tamas]

That's a fair question though. How big of a deal is it when comparing to the definitely disastrous effects of a second full-scale lockdown? Definitely something we should try to quickly get an idea about...

Yes. It seems like we won't be going into "lockdown" again, because from everything I've read schools, workplaces and public transport will stay open. But there might be closures in the hospitality/leisure sectors (presumably with targeted economic support for those businesses).

I've said before I think it's really key that we do everything we can to keep schools open now.

I don't think a full lockdown would be necessary either, if people could be bothered to keep to existing restrictions. Having limits/closures of leisure stuff, wearing masks, and keeping your distance whenever possible should be plenty enough.

[celedhring]

That's a fair question though. How big of a deal is it when comparing to the definitely disastrous effects of a second full-scale lockdown? Definitely something we should try to quickly get an idea about...

Yes. It seems like we won't be going into "lockdown" again, because from everything I've read schools, workplaces and public transport will stay open. But there might be closures in the hospitality/leisure sectors (presumably with targeted economic support for those businesses).

I've said before I think it's really key that we do everything we can to keep schools open now.

I don't think a full lockdown would be necessary either, if people could be bothered to keep to existing restrictions. Having limits/closures of leisure stuff, wearing masks, and keeping your distance whenever possible should be plenty enough.

We have done all that since late july and you can see our graphs...



I mean, mortality is still really low given the infection rate, but it's creeping up slightly. Yes, lockdown isn't really an alternative given the damage it caused, but I feel like we're walking in a bit of a tightrope here.

One of the many theories I'm seeing regarding the low mortality rates is that extensive mask usage also diminishes viral loads if you get infected.

[Zanza]

Munich is now under stronger mask and distance rules again, as they crossed 50/100000 infections in the last week
So the ersatz-Oktoberfest they had just started will likely falter. Too bad for the event business.

I am currently on vacation in Tuscany and it feels like this was the right time to go as limitations seem to get worse in the next week's.

[derspiess]

I went to a local ersatz Oktoberfest (Mocktoberfest?) yesterday that a local German club had.  Wasn't in the mood to put on the lederhosen, but sported my Bavarian flag gaiter as my mandatory face covering.  They limited the crowd to a certain amount, had lots of space to socially distance.  Great event, considering everything.

[merithyn]

I went to a local ersatz Oktoberfest (Mocktoberfest?) yesterday that a local German club had.  Wasn't in the mood to put on the lederhosen, but sported my Bavarian flag gaiter as my mandatory face covering.  They limited the crowd to a certain amount, had lots of space to socially distance.  Great event, considering everything.

Did they serve food?