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Coronavirus. Over reaction or not?

Started by Josephus, March 09, 2020, 11:10:18 AM

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Do you think governments are over -reacting to coronavirus?

No. Better safe than sorry.
20 (74.1%)
Meh...it's just a new strain of the flu.
6 (22.2%)
People don't count. It's about the economy. We need people out and about buying shit
0 (0%)
If it kills Jaron--is that so bd?
1 (3.7%)

Total Members Voted: 27

Josephus

So every week, it seems as though it's getting worse. Israel is basically gonna shut down it's airport. Northern Italy, the cool part with the hot women, is under lockdown. Public events are being cancelled. Dublin cancels St. Paddy's day.
Are we, that is the government and organizations, over reacting? Thousands of people die of flu every year, and most people aren't even aware of it.
Civis Romanus Sum<br /><br />"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world." Jack Layton 1950-2011

Grey Fox

Regular flu spreading is really slow & requires multiple exposure. This new Covid-19 is fast & skews old in a world of old people.
Colonel Caliga is Awesome.

The Minsky Moment

I've already stated my position on this.  Since then, it appears the worst case scenarios in terms of mortality rates can be ruled out.  The true mortality is probably no greater than 1 percent.  But it is definitely significantly more deadly than the seasonal flu - probably 5 to 10 times more deadly.  Which is pretty bad considering how deadly seasonal flu can be despite the existence of vaccines.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Tamas

Quite possibly, from next year, nobody will care who catches Covid-19. But to me it seems we cannot be certain of how dangerous it is. Plus we might still have a chance of getting mostly rid of it. The responsible thing in this situation is to over-react.

Zanza

I think they are too passive and should do much more aggressive and far reaching quarantine and control of travellers. Social isolation helps against the virus.

Maximus

Governments and organizations are mostly under-reacting. Individuals are mostly over-reacting*.

Legbiter

Agree with everyone. When you don't know the risk but there's a potential tail risk of total ruin, you massively overreact and you do it early. Just look at Iran. You can be paranoid and wrong 1000's of times and survive fine, be blasé once and be wrong and you're dead.
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Legbiter

Quote from: Maximus on March 09, 2020, 11:30:52 AM
Governments and organizations are mostly under-reacting. Individuals are mostly over-reacting*.

It's kinda funny, individuals overreacting in this instance helps the society by curtailing the spread. I don't do handshakes, wash hands frequently, I've set up a home gym, I avoid public gatherings for instance by shopping a lot more in bulk to reduce my social connectivity.

The actual risk of catching the virus is miniscule, therefore it is "irrational" to panic like this but if everyone dosen't act ultra-cautiously the virus will spread and severe risk to society will happen.
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PDH

I say we should all start culling the elderly before they are infected and extracting vital minerals and amino acids from them.  Then we should panic.
I have come to believe that the whole world is an enigma, a harmless enigma that is made terrible by our own mad attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying truth.
-Umberto Eco

-------
"I'm pretty sure my level of depression has nothing to do with how much of a fucking asshole you are."

-CdM

Richard Hakluyt

I don't like shaking hands anyway, it turns out that it takes me 30 seconds to wash my hands (though I have increased the frequency) and i don't like the gym or restaurants so now have a great excuse not to bother. For me at least semi-isolation is a breeze  :cool:

Tamas

Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on March 09, 2020, 11:44:45 AM
I don't like shaking hands anyway, it turns out that it takes me 30 seconds to wash my hands (though I have increased the frequency) and i don't like the gym or restaurants so now have a great excuse not to bother. For me at least semi-isolation is a breeze  :cool:

:lol:

I must admit it would not be a dramatic lifestyle change for me either.

Sheilbh

Quote from: Tamas on March 09, 2020, 11:22:23 AM
Quite possibly, from next year, nobody will care who catches Covid-19. But to me it seems we cannot be certain of how dangerous it is. Plus we might still have a chance of getting mostly rid of it. The responsible thing in this situation is to over-react.
Yeah I've no idea. Like we could all look back on this and wonder what the panic was about or it could be severe.

My impression of the UK government is it's under-reacting. I also wonder how much we're learning from South Korea - some of the testing stuff we've picked up, but I think there's more we could do/learn.

My impression of the US government is that it's looking profoundly negligent at best, especially on testing. The numbers in the US, given the low number of tests that have apparently been done seem worrying to me.

I also think there's a bit too much reliance on the government to impose measures. I've said before but I think the Premier League should, at a minimum, have advised elderly ticket-holders to stay away and, honestly, should probably be playing games behind closed doors. Multiple crowds across the country of 30,000+ people from all over the country and, at certain grounds, overseas strikes me as risky.

I get the stuff around individuals over-reacting - and yet I still see people not covering their mouthes when they cough/sneeze :ultra:
Let's bomb Russia!

fromtia

#12
Agree with everyone else. Individuals who hoard toilet paper and plan for a Charlton Heston Omega Man type outcome are being a bit melodramatic. Because its a horrible virus and new and it kills old people fairly reliably, the right thing for national governments to do is to over react, economy be damned, and contain it and push it back. It seems like the Chinese have had the most success.

"Just be nice" - James Dalton, Roadhouse.

Syt

Quote from: Legbiter on March 09, 2020, 11:31:42 AM
Agree with everyone. When you don't know the risk but there's a potential tail risk of total ruin, you massively overreact and you do it early. Just look at Iran.

... or climate change.
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops.
—Stephen Jay Gould

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

Sheilbh

Quote from: fromtia on March 09, 2020, 11:49:29 AM
Agree with everyone else. Individuals who hoard toilet paper and plan for a Charlton Heston Omega Man type outcome are being a bit melodramatic. Because its a horrible virus and new and it kills old people fairly reliably, the right thing for national governments to do is to over react, economy be damned, and contain it and push it back. It seems like the Chinese have had the most success.
Although I still have a slight conspiracy about China.

I am suspicious that it basically got very out of hand in Wuhan with local officials covering it up/dealing with it locally, before they decided to inform their bosses/national government before Chinese New Year when it couldn't be kept local any longer. By which point it was probably too late.
Let's bomb Russia!