A Test of Civilizations?

[saskganesh]

I think this virus is overblown, though I am not really paying close attention. Still though,  I'm more likely to be hit by a car.

[crazy canuck]

Stop playing in traffic. 

[mongers]

The weekend looks set to herald the start for testing the world's various different types of health services.

[Eddie Teach]

I think this virus is overblown, though I am not really paying close attention. Still though,  I'm more likely to be hit by a car.

Your chance of being hit by a car is stable.

[grumbler]

I think this virus is overblown, though I am not really paying close attention. Still though,  I'm more likely to be hit by a car.

Your chance of being hit by a car is stable.

  There is no chance you are going to be hit by a car in a stable. Might get hit by a one-horsepower horse, though.

[Tonitrus]

There is at least a small chance that a car could run into the stable and hit him as well. 

[DGuller]

There is at least a small chance that a car could run into the stable and hit him as well. 

As an actuary who has often worked on property lines of insurance, I can confirm that vehicular collision with a building is a real thing.

[grumbler]

There is at least a small chance that a car could run into the stable and hit him as well. 

But a stable with a massive hole in the wall isn't a true stable.  No true stable can have a moving car in it.

[dps]

After the accident, the car probably isn't moving anymore.

[grumbler]

After the accident, the car probably isn't moving anymore.

Exactly.  You can't be hit by a non-moving car (not even in a stable that is not a true stable).

[crazy canuck]

No true stable would allow people inside it to be hit by a car.

[mongers]

This is the attitude of the man leading the UK through this possible crisis:

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said measures such as closing schools and banning big events "don't work as well perhaps as people think".

He told ITV's This Morning programme another way of responding to the virus would be to "take it on the chin" and allow it to "move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures".

"I think we need to strike a balance," he added.

Mr Johnson said it would be "business as usual" for the "overwhelming majority" of people in the UK.

He seems to think the tea towel slogan of 'Keep Calm and Carry On' is a serious response.

Full item here:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51749352

[Sheilbh]

Isn't it the point in this graphic:


Basically you either let it spread naturally and peak early, because recovery will happen quicker - but with fewer measures like closing down schools, workplaces, cities etc. Or you take more social isoloation measures which delays the peak, which is lower, but you have the infection around for longer.

Those are options - UK policy is delay - but it'll be the medical/science people trying to work out what's the benefit against the social impact and then ministers making decisions. So who know where they'll actually land. I think Johnson has a higher risk appetite - he used to say his political hero was the Mayor in Jaws

[Malthus]

There are good reasons for delay, though.

First, you don't want everyone showing up at the hospital at the same time - services would get overwhelmed and cease functioning well. Much better to spread it out, so services can cope.

Second, delay allows time for possible counter-measures. For example, a vaccine may be possible, but this takes time to develop. Delay may allow for that time, for a vaccine to inoculate the population before the illness peaks.

Third, the point of going the non-delay route would be to avoid the cost of social disruption (closing schools and transport, etc.). However, a peaking pandemic may create a panic that has the same effect. 

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. The other benefit to delay according to the UK Chief Medical Officer is that there is a possibility that there's a seasonal element to coronavirus, like flu. I suppose even if there isn't a seasonal element to coronavirus, there is to demands on healthcare systems because of flu etc.

And UK policy is delay, which is apparently already started.

I don't think Johnson is saying he doesn't want delay, I think his point is there are two alternatives. At one extreme you let it peak and at the other you shut down cities (which has been discussed in the UK), but there's a balance to that which seems a fair point. Also there may be a bit of "pandemic theatre" a bit like "security theatre" at airports - I've seen footage from China of firetrucks disinfecting streets which I imagine isn't wildly effective but looks like you're doing something