Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[crazy canuck]

I agree with AR on this; novel variants will likely come from the half of the world with barely any vaccinations and pitiful healthcare systems.

They will most certainly develop there as well.  But the chance of spread from those locations is less than the spread from a country like the UK.

If you really need to seek cover with nations that cannot afford to do better, you know you have a problem. 

[crazy canuck]

But that's why I think the quite strict (but I think possibly still inadequate) border controls are important - and they're not being lifted. All the travel restrictions will still be in place, the changes are about what you can do in the U.K.

What prevents someone from the UK travelling outside the country?

[Sheilbh]

But that's why I think the quite strict (but I think possibly still inadequate) border controls are important - and they're not being lifted. All the travel restrictions will still be in place, the changes are about what you can do in the U.K.

What prevents someone from the UK travelling outside the country?

For a red list country you need to have a good reason and fill in a form explaining - at the minute it's not legal without a reasonable purpose. But I don't know if that's actually policed.

But for other countries, it's up to their border controls and I think we should all be quite strict and I have no issue with other countries requiring quarantine etc. At least for now - I think long term there should be other rules for the double vaccinated.

I think ultimately it is more easy for countries to control who is coming in (especially from the U.K.) than stop people leaving.

[alfred russel]

I agree with AR on this; novel variants will likely come from the half of the world with barely any vaccinations and pitiful healthcare systems.

They will most certainly develop there as well.  But the chance of spread from those locations is less than the spread from a country like the UK.

If you really need to seek cover with nations that cannot afford to do better, you know you have a problem. 

The chance of a new more contagious variant that can also beat vaccines spreading globally isn't higher if it arises in the UK than the less developed world: it is basically 100% anywhere (excluding places like Iceland that can effectively self isolate from the rest of the world).

[garbon]

But that's why I think the quite strict (but I think possibly still inadequate) border controls are important - and they're not being lifted. All the travel restrictions will still be in place, the changes are about what you can do in the U.K.

What prevents someone from the UK travelling outside the country?

For a red list country you need to have a good reason and fill in a form explaining - at the minute it's not legal without a reasonable purpose. But I don't know if that's actually policed.

But for other countries, it's up to their border controls and I think we should all be quite strict and I have no issue with other countries requiring quarantine etc. At least for now - I think long term there should be other rules for the double vaccinated.

I think ultimately it is more easy for countries to control who is coming in (especially from the U.K.) than stop people leaving.

Isn't rules on that expected imminently?

[crazy canuck]

But that's why I think the quite strict (but I think possibly still inadequate) border controls are important - and they're not being lifted. All the travel restrictions will still be in place, the changes are about what you can do in the U.K.

What prevents someone from the UK travelling outside the country?

For a red list country you need to have a good reason and fill in a form explaining - at the minute it's not legal without a reasonable purpose. But I don't know if that's actually policed.

But for other countries, it's up to their border controls and I think we should all be quite strict and I have no issue with other countries requiring quarantine etc. At least for now - I think long term there should be other rules for the double vaccinated.

I think ultimately it is more easy for countries to control who is coming in (especially from the U.K.) than stop people leaving.

Yes, I agree.  I don't think a country can do much to prevent departures, just re-entry.  And that is what I fear most about the variants that could develop in the UK.

We shall see.  hopefully it comes to nothing.  But damn your government for rolling the dice.

[Sheilbh]

Isn't rules on that expected imminently?

Sorry I meant rules between countries/mutual standards or recognition of vaccination status. There's an EU scheme and then there's member states also doing their own thing, and the UK is in talks with a few countries - I think there'll probably be an international framework for that but strict border rules for the unvaccinated.

You have missed the point.  Your country is relaxing restrictions when infection rates there are RISING. 

I 100% get that and at any time before it would be madness because cases were so closely linked to hospitalisations and deaths. But cases on themselves I don't think are a big concern. The issue is whether the link between cases and hospitalisations/deaths is weak enough to justify re-opening, or still sufficiently strong to justify restrictions.

I'm genuinely unsure - I think it's incredibly finely balanced. We have experts - especially the "independent SAGE" group - who are very opposed but we also have experts who think it's probably the right option and are moderately optimistic about it (not least because there will always be an exit wave as restrictions are lifted and they think it's better to do that during the summer when schools are closed, people are outside and there's fewer other illnesses doing the rounds than in autumn).

[crazy canuck]

We are going around in circles it seems. There will necessarily be more deaths with the rate at which infections are increasing in the UK. 

[Sheilbh]

Yes. The question is whether they are at a tolerable level, is it a low enough figure that it is something we are socially ready to accept.

That's why I think more information needs to be published, in particular of what the models the government show are the projected number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths from this wave. We're out of the IFR = 1-2% territory and now closer to 0.01% because of vaccines. We would not have locked down or imposed these restrictions if covid had only had an IFR of 0.01% in the early days. Now the question is whether this wave will be sufficient to justify emergency powers for the state or not, and if not what that level is.

[crazy canuck]

I did not peg you for a libertarian. 

I think that once restrictions are put in place to protect public health, the burden shifts to establishing it is safe to reduce those restrictions rather than try it to see what happens.

Unless you subscribe to the Dorsey view of the world that restrictions should not have been imposed in the first place.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vwYzXH5mWQ

100% of June Covid deaths in Maryland from the unvaccinated.

[Maladict]

Our fourth wave is starting, with the steepest curve since the pandemic started.
Just when all lights were supposed to turn green and everyone is busy booking their holidays.

New restrictions will not going to go over well, especially since the government (rashly) decided to end all restrictions just weeks ago and all the kids went out partying immediately and haven't stopped since.

[Sheilbh]

I did not peg you for a libertarian. 

I think that once restrictions are put in place to protect public health, the burden shifts to establishing it is safe to reduce those restrictions rather than try it to see what happens.

Unless you subscribe to the Dorsey view of the world that restrictions should not have been imposed in the first place.

I'm not a libertarian - but I do think civil liberties and human rights matter. I'm a signed up member of Liberty and Amnesty

And as someone who's a member of Liberty and Amnesty, my default view is that you generally shouldn't give an inch to the state or the police because they will not give back emergency powers, they will become normal powers and they will abuse them. Because that's what the police and the state generally do. I think it happens with counter-terrorism laws, immigration enforcement etc.

The restrictions have been really serious and intimate interferences with people's lives. In the UK we've had restrictions on who you can meet, how many people you can meet, what you can do when you meet them (we have twice banned sex for people who don't live with their partners and extra-household hugging), we've banned travel without a good purpose, shut down certain types of business, mandated collecting data of everyone who enters public enclosed space for the government track and trace scheme etc. There is also - and I laugh about people who go crazy about putting on a mask as much as the next person - but there is also a mask mandate and my default view is the state has no business telling people what or what not to wear. I think all of those measures are very serious and they were all enforced by the police.

But I think in the context of covid it was a crisis that was sufficiently serious to justify those measures. But I think they have to be - as infringements on human rights - necessary and proportionate. I don't think there's a bias in favour of keeping them or that the burden shifts (because that's also the exact argument used around counter-terrorism), I think they still need to be necessary and proportionate. I think that is a really tough judgement call at this point because deaths and hospitalisations are rising and the key, for me, is how high they are likely to get. But I don't think preventing cases on its own is enough to make them necessary and proportionate - so it's the point that vaccines haven't yet broken the link, so cases are still relevant but they have weakened it a lot and how much it's been weakened is I think the key question.

[Josquius]

Looks like they're getting rid of quarantine for vaccinated arrivals from the 19th,falling in line with the rest of Europe.
What I need to figure out is what if you arrive a day or two before the 19th-still need the full 10 (my suspicion despite it being illogical) or you're free on the 19th?

[The Brain]

Swedish numbers are down to the very low levels of August 2020.