Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

And another really striking chart on third wave from the Guardian:


I think it's really likely all restrictions end. But this feels like it should be a far tighter call than the other options/lockdowns.

[Josquius]

Wonder whether there are actually more cases or that's just down to a better testing setup.
Good news anyhoo.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - so I think our testing figures are exceptionally high, normally somewhere between 800k and 1million a day (but this varies a lot depending on whether schools are open or not).

But I don't think it's increased much in the last few months/weeks. I think it's been pretty constant since schools re-opened. But I could be wrong.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The ONS does some statistical adjustments to try and get the "real" number of cases from the samples which the variable testing regime supplies. See https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/25june2021

There is some delay in producing these figures though, so the quick and dirty figures are often used.

But, for comparison between the waves the ONS figures are preferable as they eliminate the problem with the varying degrees of testing being carried out at different times.

No matter, it still looks pretty good and we will learn to live with it as the damage to the economy (which also damages people) from lockdowns is probably now greater than the damage from letting the virus spread.

[Josquius]

A sting in the tail.
It seems vaccinated people will be free to travel to free Europe this summer, quarantine free. Wahoo.
But.... Unvaccinated people must go through 10 days quarantine. And they're defining people very strictly here. It includes everyone right down to babies

[Josquius]

On another note... Anyone clear how things are working in the UK ?
All restrictions to end the 19th apparently. Does this mean the quarantine for yellow zone people thing too?
We've got a visitor due a few days before then and are wondering whether there's any value in test to release or if she'll be free anyway then.

[Sheilbh]

No. I think it's restrictions within the UK are eliminated. Restrictions on entering the UK stay the same.

But there is talk about double dosed people not needing to quarantine (but possibly still needing a test) etc.

[Josquius]

So....India continues its slide away from democracy.
https://theprint.in/india/journalist-activist-jailed-under-nsa-for-45-days-over-cow-posts-in-manipur-its-not-unusual/684133/?amp

[Sheilbh]

I find this super interesting - today it's expected Johnson will (in about two minutes) announce that all restrictions in the UK will be lifted on 19 July. This is broadly in line with their initial plan with a month's delay for the final re-opening.

There is opposition to this including from some of the scientists (though - from my read of the Guardian article the concerned scientists mainly seem to be the behavioural specialists, not the public health or medical experts) advising the government. I am not convinced by argument against unlocking if they only highlight the issue of new cases - as someone I went to law school with (who is now sickeningly successful) put it, it's not reasonable or helpful if they don't also mention low hospitalisation/death rates, the harms of lockdown, the inherent civil liberties issues with lockdown, or a plausible route out. A bit of the opposition basically seems to be that we should lockdown in some way or other until we have zero covid or zero risk - and I just think that's wrong from a human rights and freedoms perspective. I think it's now a classic case of balancing risks and harms - and it is more finely balanced in my view than previously.

But one thing I found kind of interesting is that broadly people seem to support lifting a number of the current restrictions, but more opposed to lifting the mask mandate:


But - and this is what I find interesting - is that people intend to behave more cautiously. And I think this is because there's always that link between how safe/risky people actually feel which I still think is more important than actual rules:


I also suspect British people are thrilled to have an excuse to sociall distance in queues. I had intended to not wear a mask once that ends - but actually if most people are doing it, then I will

[Josquius]

I really smell some internal tory party rumbling at work rather than common sense. Seems mad to go from where we are to nothing. Cut the restrictions for sure but non mandatory masks? There's no need. It's such a simple thing that cuts the spread a lot.

This is one where there needs to be a law I think. As you say it's peer pressure at work. I was slow on the uptake until it was mandatory as I didn't want to look a nutter.

I think a lot of people will be cautious going forward. Less due to fear of corona and more a minor fear of humanity built out of a year as a hikikomori. I wouldn't know where to start asking people for a drink after so long. It'll seem weird.

[Barrister]

I had intended to not wear a mask once that ends - but actually if most people are doing it, then I will

For what it is worth it's only been 5 days since Alberta dropped its mask restriction but still most people are still wearing masks (prior to, absolutely everyone was).

[Legbiter]

Yeah hopefully Britain has enough people vaccinated that the delta variant is just a mild background illness.

[Sheilbh]

I really smell some internal tory party rumbling at work rather than common sense. Seems mad to go from where we are to nothing. Cut the restrictions for sure but non mandatory masks? There's no need. It's such a simple thing that cuts the spread a lot.

There definitely is - Sajid is broadly more anti-lockdown than Hancock (plus Gove is also more pro-lockdown and busy with his personal life).

But I'm not sure - because we're not very locked down now. There's a limit of 30 people in a group on outdoor gatherings but also big outdoor gatherings like stadiums etc have re-opened, there's a rule of six indoors (which shuts down certain sectors like clubs, but cinemas, theatres, restaurants etc are open) plus mask mandate on public transport and indoors. It struck me when they pushed the date of this back that it basically would make no difference to my life because aside from wearing a mask and preferring to book tables outside nothing I really do regularly was restricted anymore. I could see people, I could eat out, go to the cinema etc.

The thing I'm most worried about is the fully re-opening the indoor venues.

This is one where there needs to be a law I think. As you say it's peer pressure at work. I was slow on the uptake until it was mandatory as I didn't want to look a nutter.

I think a lot of people will be cautious going forward. Less due to fear of corona and more a minor fear of humanity built out of a year as a hikikomori. I wouldn't know where to start asking people for a drink after so long. It'll seem weird.

I was an early adopter on masks - I was very much in a minority in my area but not wildly so. I think I will carry one and basically go with the crowd. I imagine we'll probably end up wearing masks as standard on public transport.

But I think there will be a degree of peer pressure and social conformity going on - and I think that's an area where Britain is quite conformist compared to other countries. I've never seen anyone kick off about having to wear a mask as appeared to be a constant issue in the US, but similarly I've never seen anyone confront someone who doesn't wear a mask (it's more glares like you get for cutting into the queue). I expect masks will operate at that level for quite a while.

Edit: And from a human rights lawyer - it does sound like some legal restrictions will remain mainly self-isolation and quarantine requirements.

[garbon]

I really smell some internal tory party rumbling at work rather than common sense. Seems mad to go from where we are to nothing. Cut the restrictions for sure but non mandatory masks? There's no need. It's such a simple thing that cuts the spread a lot.

There definitely is - Sajid is broadly more anti-lockdown than Hancock (plus Gove is also more pro-lockdown and busy with his personal life).

But I'm not sure - because we're not very locked down now. There's a limit of 30 people in a group on outdoor gatherings but also big outdoor gatherings like stadiums etc have re-opened, there's a rule of six indoors (which shuts down certain sectors like clubs, but cinemas, theatres, restaurants etc are open) plus mask mandate on public transport and indoors. It struck me when they pushed the date of this back that it basically would make no difference to my life because aside from wearing a mask and preferring to book tables outside nothing I really do regularly was restricted anymore. I could see people, I could eat out, go to the cinema etc.

The thing I'm most worried about is the fully re-opening the indoor venues.

This is one where there needs to be a law I think. As you say it's peer pressure at work. I was slow on the uptake until it was mandatory as I didn't want to look a nutter.

I think a lot of people will be cautious going forward. Less due to fear of corona and more a minor fear of humanity built out of a year as a hikikomori. I wouldn't know where to start asking people for a drink after so long. It'll seem weird.

I was an early adopter on masks - I was very much in a minority in my area but not wildly so. I think I will carry one and basically go with the crowd. I imagine we'll probably end up wearing masks as standard on public transport.

But I think there will be a degree of peer pressure and social conformity going on - and I think that's an area where Britain is quite conformist compared to other countries. I've never seen anyone kick off about having to wear a mask as appeared to be a constant issue in the US, but similarly I've never seen anyone confront someone who doesn't wear a mask (it's more glares like you get for cutting into the queue). I expect masks will operate at that level for quite a while.

I've seen lots of no-mask wearing individuals throughout the period when it was mandatory indoors. Similarly isn't it one of the cabinent ministers who exclaimed that he'll be happy to stop wearing a mask as soon as he is able / he thinks many people will feel the same.

I liked the stance of the person I saw interviewed this morning that masks had always been more about helping others so why are we suddenly leaving option to help others to personal conscious why cases are high and we're only at half of the population full vaxxed.

[alfred russel]

People that passing on the chance to take the vaccine should not receive any efforts from the rest of society to protect them from their own idiocy. They want to roll the dice, they should suffer the consequences.