Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Governments were widely criticized for claiming that "masks don't work" last spring.  It later came out there was good reason to think masks did work (which has been overwhelmingly confirmed), but governments didn't want there to be a rush on masks and run out in hospitals.  So they told the good-intentioned lie.

Yeah. I think the UK's a bit of an outlier on masks - they've become synecdoche with dealing with the pandemic in the way they seem to have in North America. Still no mask-wearing outdoors (or not mandatorily) and the indoor masks only came in in the summer - quite a lot later than everywhere else (I thought they might be a big part of the difference between the West v Asia given that we've been wearing masks too for the last 9 months, I think it maybe still is, but unfortunately not in a big way).

People have largely forgotten the mask issue - it's the stuff government and scientific advisors got wrong on social distancing and lockdown that people remember here.

I'm not convinced regulators or advisors should do white lies - I think about Fauci's one about herd immunity . I think it just undermines trust.

So now there's evidence of a very rare, very serious but treatable reaction to the J&J shot in women.  If they ignore it they get accused of lying again.  But if they pause distribution like this they risk increasing vaccine hesitancy.

I think the EMA/MHRA approach was sensible. Say they're aware of the reports but haven't identified a link, they'll investigate but for now the benefits outweigh the risks then follow up a week a later once they have more information with a press conference to run through their decision.

[DGuller]

What did Fauci say about herd immunity?

[Sheilbh]

What did Fauci say about herd immunity?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/health/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus.html

Basically I think what he is talking about there is a politician's job that the scientists and experts shouldn't do or shouldn't admit - though I sympathise with him maybe having to do that when responsible politicians were absent during the Trump administration.

[DGuller]

Yeah, that's bad, but Fauci has really been in an impossible situation.  Every day he had to weight the relative damages of various imperfect options, all made necessary because of US being led by a uniquely unsuitable president.

[Maladict]

Fuck. I had a friend over on Sunday, first time I had a visitor this year. Just got a text he tested positive today. Fuck. Fuck.

[Barrister]

Fuck. I had a friend over on Sunday, first time I had a visitor this year. Just got a text he tested positive today. Fuck. Fuck.

Fuck indeed.

[Fate]

So now there's evidence of a very rare, very serious but treatable reaction to the J&J shot in women.  If they ignore it they get accused of lying again.  But if they pause distribution like this they risk increasing vaccine hesitancy.

Agreed it's super rare. But one problem is we can't use effective treatments for it. The 6 women in the US who got it also developed thrombocytopenia (low platelets) in addition a blood clot in the veins that drain the brain. When you have low platelets you can't get blood thinners to treat the blood clot because you'd start to bleed everywhere.

Probably best to save J&J for the older crowd and don't give it to women of reproductive age (at least in the US everyone with this side effect was female and 18-48) and then give Pfizer/Moderna to the young people.

[viper37]

Fuck. I had a friend over on Sunday, first time I had a visitor this year. Just got a text he tested positive today. Fuck. Fuck.

sorry to hear that.

[Sheilbh]

I really hope this doesn't lead to similar decisions in other European countries - without AZ or J&J, European vaccination programs would take a lot longer. I don't think it's a great decision, but it probably works for Denmark because of their very low rate of infections etc. But given the trends in other European countries, which are more like the UK before the lockdown, I think this decision would just result in a lot more deaths:

Denmark to stop use of AstraZeneca vaccine permanently

Denmark will permanently cease to administer AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine, broadcaster TV 2 reported on Wednesday, citing unnamed sources.

The move will delay Denmark's vaccination roll-out by a few weeks, TV 2 said.

The Copenhagen Post reports:

Without the J&J and AstraZeneca jabs, experts warn that Denmark's vaccination program might not be completed before the end of the year.

    J&J accounted for 8.2 million of Denmark's vaccinations. Even better, only one jab is necessary to vaccinate. On its own, it could have covered the whole country ... and Latvia. Its withdrawal was unthinkable.

    But its departure leaves Denmark with only Pfizer and Moderna in its arsenal.

    "We can get to the finish line with Pfizer and Moderna," Professor Jan Pravsgaard Christensen from the Department of Immunology and Microbiology at the University of Copenhagen told DR.

    "But then I think we will not be completely vaccinated until the end of 2021."

I also think this is one of those things were the economic/social cost does sway quite strongly. I think those costs to individuals are more difficult to justify if vaccines that work and could avoid/mitigate those costs have been pulled over very rare side effects.

[Liep]

I really hope this doesn't lead to similar decisions in other European countries - without AZ or J&J, European vaccination programs would take a lot longer. I don't think it's a great decision, but it probably works for Denmark because of their very low rate of infections etc. But given the trends in other European countries, which are more like the UK before the lockdown, I think this decision would just result in a lot more deaths:

Denmark to stop use of AstraZeneca vaccine permanently

Denmark will permanently cease to administer AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine, broadcaster TV 2 reported on Wednesday, citing unnamed sources.

The move will delay Denmark's vaccination roll-out by a few weeks, TV 2 said.

The Copenhagen Post reports:

Without the J&J and AstraZeneca jabs, experts warn that Denmark's vaccination program might not be completed before the end of the year.

    J&J accounted for 8.2 million of Denmark's vaccinations. Even better, only one jab is necessary to vaccinate. On its own, it could have covered the whole country ... and Latvia. Its withdrawal was unthinkable.

    But its departure leaves Denmark with only Pfizer and Moderna in its arsenal.

    "We can get to the finish line with Pfizer and Moderna," Professor Jan Pravsgaard Christensen from the Department of Immunology and Microbiology at the University of Copenhagen told DR.

    "But then I think we will not be completely vaccinated until the end of 2021."

I also think this is one of those things were the economic/social cost does sway quite strongly. I think those costs to individuals are more difficult to justify if vaccines that work and could avoid/mitigate those costs have been pulled over very rare side effects.

It's terrible. I'm not getting a vaccine until November or December now. Bah!

[mongers]

Fuck. I had a friend over on Sunday, first time I had a visitor this year. Just got a text he tested positive today. Fuck. Fuck.

Damn, that's very annoying. Mal, I hope it turns out well.

[mongers]

It's terrible. I'm not getting a vaccine until November or December now. Bah!

Why can't people sign a notional waver saying they accept the risk in order to get vaccinated?

Would getting a 'private' jab or buying an inoculation in a neighbouring country be possibilities?

[Liep]

It's terrible. I'm not getting a vaccine until November or December now. Bah!

Why can't people sign a notional waver saying they accept the risk in order to get vaccinated?

Would getting a 'private' jab or buying an inoculation in a neighbouring country be possibilities?

The opposition is already out demanding just that.

A trip to St. Petersburg and get a sputnik Britain for an AZ would be something i would consider to "jump ahead" by 6 months if it's an option.

[Tamas]

Consider that the 2nd Sputnik shot is a specific second shot variant so it's not just the case of getting a second shot of the same stuff. I actually liked this about it previously (sounded like a good idea to use a different cold virus as "carrier" the second time for a stronger reaction), but Hungary has run into the problem of Russia not delivering nearly as much second doses in time as it would be needed.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah regulators are in a tough spot.

Governments were widely criticized for claiming that "masks don't work" last spring.  It later came out there was good reason to think masks did work (which has been overwhelmingly confirmed), but governments didn't want there to be a rush on masks and run out in hospitals.  So they told the good-intentioned lie.

So now there's evidence of a very rare, very serious but treatable reaction to the J&J shot in women.  If they ignore it they get accused of lying again.  But if they pause distribution like this they risk increasing vaccine hesitancy.

One effect is that women are now pointing to the incidence of blood clots while on birth control pills, and wondering why government hasn't taken similar action...