Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[The Minsky Moment]

The USA did not develop the Pfizer or the AZ vaccines.

The US govt did not develop the vaccine but they did sign a contract with Pfizer to purchase 100 million doses and an option to purchase another 500 million, of which at least 100 million was exercised as of Dec 2020 and another 100 million right after Biden's inauguration in January.

As I recall Trump got beat up in the press for not exercising a bigger piece of the Pfizer option.

[Barrister]

The USA did not develop the Pfizer or the AZ vaccines.

The US govt did not develop the vaccine but they did sign a contract with Pfizer to purchase 100 million doses and an option to purchase another 500 million, of which at least 100 million was exercised as of Dec 2020 and another 100 million right after Biden's inauguration in January.

As I recall Trump got beat up in the press for not exercising a bigger piece of the Pfizer option.

I saw it pointed out that he didn't need to - Pfizer couldn't sell those vaccines to anyone else anyways.

[viper37]

OK, so Canada, seriously - STFU.

Take a look at this article:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03370-6

Most of this capacity is already spoken for. The 27 member states of the European Union together with five other rich countries have pre-ordered about half of it (including options, written into their contracts, to order extra doses, and negotiations that have been disclosed but not yet finalized). These countries account for only around 13% of the global population.

If six other leading vaccine candidates are included, the total number of doses for which disclosed deals are in place rises to 7.4 billion, with expansion options or ongoing negotiations accounting for another 2.9 billion doses, according to Airfinity's calculations. When these other vaccines are included, the total number of doses secured by the same five countries and the EU remains at around half of the total, because those wealthy enough to place bets on a number of candidates bought up broad portfolios of products early in the pandemic.

Canada is actually on track to have more doses per capita then any other country in the world. I am sure that is so they can promptly ship them off to Africa.

If you actually have a MORAL argument to make here, it isn't about the US screwing over the other ultra-rich countries, it should be about all the rich countries fucking over everyone else, as usual.

I haven't read the entire discussion, I don't know where it started and I'm not gonna go back 15 pages to read it either

But... You are absolutely right on this.

Had the situation been reversed, Trudeau would not be exporting canadian made vaccines to the US.  Or supplies to make vaccines.  He would have thought about it.  He would have wanted to do it.  But his advisors would have told him the harsh truth: the media , the opposition and the population will hold it against you that you favored foreigners' -heck! rich Americans!- over canadian lives.

Like Jacob, I think if another President than Trump had been in charged a year ago, things would have unfolded very differtently.  Maybe we'd have had a vaccine earlier too, or at least a cure for the worst symptoms.  Maybe.  I'm not sure one way or the other.  Biden or Clinton or any one else would have taken the lead for sure.  Intelligence reports from China would not have been about how great the President is and how vile the Chinese are, but they would have detailed - to the US and the world - the truth about what was going on in Wuhan and the government would have acted on it and shared the info with its allies.

Now, that's not what happenned, and we're all fucked beause of some stupid chinese tradition that dictates that live animals should be raised in tiny cages near one another and be butchered at this place which happens to be the place they're sold to.  A recipe for disaster.  And it's going to happen again because nothing has changed there, and there's significant risks due the large population of bats carrying coronavirus in them and the great risk of inter-species jump.

As to the point: is it a bad idea to vaccinate the Americans first, then export to the world?

I lean toward Berkut's position.

Not all countries are affected equally.  The poorest countries don't all need a quick vaccine (India is doing better I think; most Asian countries have started reopening and don't have many cases, Africa isn't the disaster we thought it would be and I know nothing of South America except Brazil, a country that fucked up its own situation just like the US).

If Trump was still in power, I'd say let them eat cake , but, you know, there's actually a decent administration over there now, so I think they deserve a break.

Anyway.  This virus has no real preference.  He's as happy to infect an American than a Canadian.

Does it make sense to vaccinate a hot spot like the US first, then export it to Canada and Mexico, close commercial partner?  Here's where I'll disagree with you, Berkut.  Yes it does, much more so than Brazil or any European countries.  Why?  Because of the level of commercial trade between our countries, because of the level of travels for individuals between our countries (Bombardier/Alstom has plants in New York, Quebec, Ontario and Mexico among others with staff that has to regularly move through all these spots - in normal circumstances, my step brothers need to travel to other Alstom plants in North America, their work is impeded by their need to work exclusively from home and not on these sites). So yeah, this bubble needs to be vaccinated first, than go for elsewhere with our vaccines.

And Europe needs to do the same, vaccinate its people in all European countries, than export it.  Otherwise, I think it will be counter-productive and will end up delaying the end of the pandemic.

Africa and Asia have no urgent needs for a vaccine, but we do.  Once we are cleared of the pandemic, we can produce vaccines at a faster rate: end of physical distancing means more workers in plants, end of travel restrictions means increased productivity for our manufacturing plants so we can ramp up the production then and offer vaccins to these countries faster than if we were to given them a few doses now and then as we sail toward an end instead of traveling at warp speed.

In the end, the current US approach is likely to be more beneficial to all, I think.

It's sad for countries like Brazil, but let's be honest here: they fucked up royally.  They elected Bolsonaro and some local governors, like the one in the province where Manaus is located was all too happy to tow the party line.  People were all too happy to end their restrictions instead of being confined.  Now they're paying the price of their carelessness. 

What is sad is that I'm sure neighbouring countries are also suffering because of them, but it can't be avoided for now.

the US can produce vaccines, Guatemala cannot.  If you offer vaccines to Guatemala, you save the population there while US plants produce at half capacity.  If you vaccinate Canada-USA-Mexico then you'll actually increase vaccine supply and save people in the NAFTA zone.

[viper37]

The USA did not develop the Pfizer or the AZ vaccines.

The US govt did not develop the vaccine but they did sign a contract with Pfizer to purchase 100 million doses and an option to purchase another 500 million, of which at least 100 million was exercised as of Dec 2020 and another 100 million right after Biden's inauguration in January.

As I recall Trump got beat up in the press for not exercising a bigger piece of the Pfizer option.

Trump got beat up in the press because he did not order more than 100 million doses when Pfizer offered them to and then he tried to force Pfizer to sell more doses to the US instead of other countries.

[PDH]

I don't know what you guys are fighting about.  I got my 2 doses of the vaccine and, really, isn't that what it's all about?

Stop flaunting your old man privilege!

Actually, it is because for the last year I have had to go to work and deal with the public: 20-40 people each day.  But really, it is because I am great.

[Zoupa]

I kind of agree with Berkut on this one. Canada would have done exactly the same if the situation was reversed (I think).

But let me slip in a little yank bashing in there though: with the amount of retardedness and antiva, goptards and qtards the US has, with no mask wearing in huge parts of the country, I think it's good that the US prioritizes its own citizens even in less at risk groups.

[Grey Fox]

What I see in that document is that the US reserves the right to block exports, not that it has done so already.  And by implication, since the order was just published, the US has not been blocking vaccine exports up to this time.

IIRC, the pharmaticals are playing ball in fear that if actually invoke it would also preclude any production from outside the USA from being shipped anywhere but to the USA. DPA is far reaching like ITAR is.

[Berkut]

My understanding is that Canada's pre-order numbers are so high because our initial set of pre-orders got a "yeah, you may have pre-ordered, but you're not actually getting these vaccines for a long time" - so we've gone out and pre-ordered a whole bunch of more vaccines in the hope that some of them will get delivered.

If you look at the number of vaccines distributed per capita, Canada sits at roughly 9.5% with the US at roughly 34.5%, the UK at 40.7%, Germany at 12.2, Mexico at 3.8%.

But, Berkut, fair point about the rich countries screwing over the poor ones - and yeah, Canada is definitely part of that. IMO, better international coordination, cooperation, and leadership could've helped. That boat has kind of sailed, but it'd be great if we could somehow mitigate that.

My point though is that Canada is not doing anything at all more altruistic than the US. They need vaccines for their citizens, and they are buying it as quickly as they can.

The US needs vaccine for its citizens, and it is producing it as quick as they can.

Either way, neither country to shipping off the vaccine they have (whether bought or produced) to other countries before getting their own vaccinated.

And yeah, if you really want to nail the US in a much more clear moral argument, it is that the US is using its wealth and power to favor, as usual, itself over other countries. There is a humanist argument to be made that regardless of the politics, the right thing to do is separate all ability to obtain vaccine from the distribution - the vaccine should all go to whomever needs it the most no matter where they are, irrespective of their nations ability to procure it - the problem with that though is that to make THAT moral argument, you have to condemn Canada right along with the US, and well....that's not the point of this kind of faux outrage, now is it?

My objection is simple - being pissed off at the US for acting the same way all other rich countries act, with the difference being in incredibly minor details easily explained by logistics and perfectly normal politics in democratic countries is bullshit when it is coming from other rich countries who are absolutely happy to use their own wealth to do exactly what the US is doing.

[Richard Hakluyt]

FWIW the WHO agrees with Berkut https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-56465395

The rich bastard countries named included the UK, USA and EU but there were others.

We only have the capacity to vaccinate a third of the world population and there do not appear to be any grand plans to triple capacity. We can therefore expect unpleasant variants of the virus to develop in third world reservoirs of infection.

[Syt]

Austrian government has adjusted the prognosis from "Life will be back to normal by summer" to "We hope to have 2/3 of people be vaccinated with at least one dose by end of June."

[Sheilbh]

FWIW the WHO agrees with Berkut https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-56465395

The rich bastard countries named included the UK, USA and EU but there were others.

We only have the capacity to vaccinate a third of the world population and there do not appear to be any grand plans to triple capacity. We can therefore expect unpleasant variants of the virus to develop in third world reservoirs of infection.

Aren't the grand plans in the manufacturers' plans to increase their own capacity? So at the minute they're producing a fraction of what they plan to but that's sort of to be expected because they've only been making it for 3 months and are only a small amount of their ultimate planned capacity. SII in India which is the largest manufacturer is apparently making about 70 million doses a month but I think they intend to get that to about 150 million doses by autumn/winter - and that's just one factory/manufacturer.

I think it is essential to make have a global immunisation campaign - which I think should be do-able starting at the end of this year.

Also just to add to AR's points about scarcity, I think one of the other weirdnesses of covid is that we are generally sort of pre-conditioned to think of infectious disease as a problem for poor countries. With covid - that's only really been true in Latin America. Most Asian and African countries have been able to tackle covid and limit its worst effects far more effectively than in Europe or the US (and part of this might just reflect that they have a younger population, so it's a less lethal disease). It's counter-intuitive but I feel like there is probably a public health argument that the vaccination focus should be on Europe and the Americas right now.

[Berkut]

FWIW the WHO agrees with Berkut https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-56465395

The rich bastard countries named included the UK, USA and EU but there were others.

We only have the capacity to vaccinate a third of the world population and there do not appear to be any grand plans to triple capacity. We can therefore expect unpleasant variants of the virus to develop in third world reservoirs of infection.

Aren't the grand plans in the manufacturers' plans to increase their own capacity? So at the minute they're producing a fraction of what they plan to but that's sort of to be expected because they've only been making it for 3 months and are only a small amount of their ultimate planned capacity. SII in India which is the largest manufacturer is apparently making about 70 million doses a month but I think they intend to get that to about 150 million doses by autumn/winter - and that's just one factory/manufacturer.

I think it is essential to make have a global immunisation campaign - which I think should be do-able starting at the end of this year.

Also just to add to AR's points about scarcity, I think one of the other weirdnesses of covid is that we are generally sort of pre-conditioned to think of infectious disease as a problem for poor countries. With covid - that's only really been true in Latin America. Most Asian and African countries have been able to tackle covid and limit its worst effects far more effectively than in Europe or the US (and part of this might just reflect that they have a younger population, so it's a less lethal disease). It's counter-intuitive but I feel like there is probably a public health argument that the vaccination focus should be on Europe and the Americas right now.

For me, it is a bit simpler even then that.

We know how human beings are - not how *Americans* are, but how ALL human beings are, and trying to get worked up about that is a waste of effort and time.

We should focus instead of ramping up vaccine production as much as possible in those places where vaccine is being produced. That will privilege those places of course, since they will HAVE the vaccine, and we know that in the democracies, that will mean they will largely take care of their own citizens first, however they define that. And that means the wealthy countries, because nobody is producing vaccine in poor countries, mostly.

We should just focus on production and distribution, and get the "rich" countries done, so we can then focus on the humanitarian *and practical* need to get the non-rich countries vaccinated as well. It isn't the best solution, but it is certainly the best possible solution given the realities of the world we live in. Energy spent whining about how horrible other countries or people are are performative art that says everything about the people whining and nothing about the other "purple drazi" they are whining about. It's just more bigotry.

I don't think the US should send one single item of raw material to India if that means India produces another 10,000 doses of their vaccine, and the US produces 11,000 doses LESS of their vaccine. That is just stupid and works against the end goal actual humanitarians ought to care about.

[Tamas]

Norwegians claim they have found the link between the AZ vaccine and the rare blood clotting incidents: it seems people who have this happening, had a very strong immune reaction resulting in antibodies made against their blood platelets, as I understand. They are saying there is no other explanation for this in these patients than the vaccine, for triggering this.

https://sciencenorway.no/covid19/norwegian-experts-say-deadly-blood-clots-were-caused-by-the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine/1830510

"The reason for the condition of our patients has been found", chief physician and professor Pål Andre Holme announced to Norwegian national newspaper VG today.

Holme led the work to find out why three health workers under the age of 50 were hospitalized with serious blood clots and low levels of blood platelets after having taken the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine. One of the health workers died on Monday.

The experts have worked on a theory that it was in fact the vaccine which triggered and unexpected and powerful immune response - a theory they now believe they have confirmed.

"Our theory that this is a powerful immune response which most likely was caused by the vaccine has been found. In collaboration with experts in the field from the University Hospital of North Norway HF, we have found specific antibodies against blood platelets that can cause these reactions, and which we know from other fields of medicine, but then with medical drugs as the cause of the reaction", the chief physician explains to VG.

"Nothing but the vaccine can explain why"
ANNONSE

When asked to clarify why he says "most likely" in the quote, Holme confidently responds that the reason for these rare cases of blood clots has been found.

"We have the reason. Nothing but the vaccine can explain why these individuals had this immune response", he states.

VG also asks how Holme can know that the immune response is not caused by something other than the vaccine.

"There is nothing in the patient history of these individuals that can give such a powerful immune response. I am confident that the antibodies that we have found are the cause, and I see no other explanation than it being the vaccine which triggers it", he responds.

The three affected health workers all came into the hospital with a very rare condition:

They had acute pain
They had blood clots in unusual places, such as their stomachs and brains
In addition, they had bleedings and low levels of platelets

[Syt]

Meanwhile, in Kassel, Germany.

[Admiral Yi]

What's up with the Israeli flag?