Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Iormlund]

(I don't want to be That Essentialist Person™, but Germans do seem to have a deep-seated problem with utilitarian trade-offs in government: from nuclear energy to foreign intervention, there's a strong tendency to minimise responsibility even at the risk of greater harm.)

It's not just in government. I see that every day at work.

But the most amazing example was when I spent 10 surreal minutes arguing with a worker at a Kantine. I saw some Schnitzel and asked for it. She motioned towards the mushrooms and I halted her: "No mushrooms please, just plain Schnitzel". "I can't just serve you Schnitzel, the menu says it has mushrooms". "I'll pay the full price, just don't put the mushrooms on the plate" "I can't do that, they are in the menu" ... In the end I had to pick something else.

[PDH]

Can I have spam instead of baked beans?

[Jacob]

Apparently President Biden said today they are in talks with countries about using up US surplus vaccines and would let people know very shortly.

https://twitter.com/CBCKatie/status/1371891568215490565

(Tweeter is CBC's Washington-based correspondent)

That's encouraging.

[crazy canuck]

Apparently President Biden said today they are in talks with countries about using up US surplus vaccines and would let people know very shortly.

https://twitter.com/CBCKatie/status/1371891568215490565

(Tweeter is CBC's Washington-based correspondent)

That's encouraging.

They are kind of forced into doing it.  They are sitting on unused stockpiles of AZ

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/11/us/politics/coronavirus-astrazeneca-united-states.html

[Jacob]

They are kind of forced into doing it.  They are sitting on unused stockpiles of AZ

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/11/us/politics/coronavirus-astrazeneca-united-states.html

Still encouraging.

I mean, it's relatively straight forward stuff, but the previous guy fucked up a bunch of relatively straight forward stuff. Some I'm taking pleasure in it apparently not being a shitshow, and in the prospect that our timelines potentially move forward a bit as well.

[Sheilbh]

It's one year on from former model Caprice being patronised by a doctor, and about a year on from that guy with a Medium post getting into an argument with Professor Jonathan Edmunds on Channel 4 News:
https://twitter.com/JeremyVineOn5/status/1239512626134224896?s=20

The glamour model and lad with a Medium account were right. And I was wildly wrong at the time. I remember at the time being annoyed at experts (the doctor and professor) having to argue with people with no expertise, it reminded of media debates about climate change and Brexit.

But this time the enthusiastic amateurs were right and the experts really fucked it

[garbon]

It's one year on from former model Caprice being patronised by a doctor, and about a year on from that guy with a Medium post getting into an argument with Professor Jonathan Edmunds on Channel 4 News:
https://twitter.com/JeremyVineOn5/status/1239512626134224896?s=20

The glamour model and lad with a Medium account were right. And I was wildly wrong at the time. I remember at the time being annoyed at experts (the doctor and professor) having to argue with people with no expertise, it reminded of media debates about climate change and Brexit.

But this time the enthusiastic amateurs were right and the experts really fucked it

Is there further context on this? All I saw at start was rebuttal that 2 weeks time is a sufficient length of lockdown. That seems not to have been true?

[Sheilbh]

Is there further context on this? All I saw at start was rebuttal that 2 weeks time is a sufficient length of lockdown. That seems not to have been true?

I don't know - I can't remember the details of the clip but I remember it being ridiculous that the media were playing silly buggers about this and asking models for their opinion on how to deal with a pandemic.

Caprice seems to be citing the approach in Singapore and Taiwan - so I agree 2 weeks wouldn't be enough but I don't think she's wedded to the timeline and her fundamental strategy is right

[garbon]

Is there further context on this? All I saw at start was rebuttal that 2 weeks time is a sufficient length of lockdown. That seems not to have been true?

I don't know - I can't remember the details of the clip but I remember it being ridiculous that the media were playing silly buggers about this and asking models for their opinion on how to deal with a pandemic.

Caprice seems to be citing the approach in Singapore and Taiwan - so I agree 2 weeks wouldn't be enough but I don't think she's wedded to the timeline and her fundamental strategy is right

Well, again, unless there is a wider context, scientist was spot on with what she said in that beginning part. Not exactly seeing the triumph of the laywoman over the expert.

[Sheilbh]

Well, again, unless there is a wider context, scientist was spot on with what she said in that beginning part. Not exactly seeing the triumph of the laywoman over the expert.

I don't know about the rest of the show but the context of this time last year was the doctor arguing for the UK approach of just trying to flatten the curve a bit - which I backed. Caprice is arguing for lockdown now and adopting a similar approach to Taiwan and Singapore - which I think you and Tamas were supporting. Undoubtedly the lockdown approach was right. I think it's interesting as well how two of the doctor's arguments are based on things that the experts got wrong in this country. In particular lockdown wouldn't really be possible (we'd need electronic tagging to enforce it) which was a key part of the modeling in the UK that there'd be widespread non-compliance, which was totally wrong. And that once it had arrived in the UK we basically needed to just accept that it's here to stay - which I think has been shown to be wrong by other countries including Caprice's favourites Taiwan and Singapore, but also Australia, Korea, Japan etc.

I think those twin assumptions made at the start of the crisis had a huge impact on the approach here: there's nothing we can really do because it's already spreading here and what might help, like a lockdown, can't practically be done.

Did a quick search and found me and Tamas talked about this - I was very wrong and snobbish:

In the latest UK media really not dealing well with this, we have had this morning a doctor arguing with former model Caprice about what's the appropriate response to this

I find myself be on the same opinion as Pierce Morgan, which does give me pause.

Much as it pains me to admit it Tamas, Piers Morgan and Caprice were right all along

[garbon]

Well, again, unless there is a wider context, scientist was spot on with what she said in that beginning part. Not exactly seeing the triumph of the laywoman over the expert.

I don't know about the rest of the show but the context of this time last year was the doctor arguing for the UK approach of just trying to flatten the curve a bit - which I backed. Caprice is arguing for lockdown now and adopting a similar approach to Taiwan and Singapore - which I think you and Tamas were supporting. Undoubtedly the lockdown approach was right. I think it's interesting as well how two of the doctor's arguments are based on things that the experts got wrong in this country. In particular lockdown wouldn't really be possible (we'd need electronic tagging to enforce it) which was a key part of the modeling in the UK that there'd be widespread non-compliance, which was totally wrong. And that once it had arrived in the UK we basically needed to just accept that it's here to stay - which I think has been shown to be wrong by other countries including Caprice's favourites Taiwan and Singapore, but also Australia, Korea, Japan etc.

I think those twin assumptions made at the start of the crisis had a huge impact on the approach here: there's nothing we can really do because it's already spreading here and what might help, like a lockdown, can't practically be done.

Did a quick search and found me and Tamas talked about this - I was very wrong and snobbish:

In the latest UK media really not dealing well with this, we have had this morning a doctor arguing with former model Caprice about what's the appropriate response to this

I find myself be on the same opinion as Pierce Morgan, which does give me pause.

Much as it pains me to admit it Tamas, Piers Morgan and Caprice were right all along

I tried to just do a search but I can't see anything much on what the doctor said on lockdown other than discussing that a 2 week lockdown will not help and that China had to put its province into lockdown for months.  I also can't find any evidence that Caprice was just talking about the idea of lockdowns in general, despite your assertion that she wasn't wedded to the 2 week time frame.

Now, I may have entirely forgotten but I don't recall it being a surprise that some sort of lockdown would be implemented. My office stopped manadating employee come into the office by 12 Mar under anticipation that government would eventually close things down. In fact, I'd also made sure I paid extra to expedite my visa (on 17 Mar( so there would be no chance I'd be stuck in limbo.

Agreed on mask front, but we've already done that topic to death.

[Sheilbh]

I tried to just do a search but I can't see anything much on what the doctor said on lockdown other than discussing that a 2 week lockdown will not help and that China had to put its province into lockdown for months.  I also can't find any evidence that Caprice was just talking about the idea of lockdowns in general, despite your assertion that she wasn't wedded to the 2 week time frame.

I base that assertion on the host making a comment about it just being for two weeks and Caprice tries to answer him but he then moves onto the doctor again.

Now, I may have entirely forgotten but I don't recall it being a surprise that some sort of lockdown would be implemented. My office stopped manadating employee come into the office by 12 Mar under anticipation that government would eventually close things down. In fact, I'd also made sure I paid extra to expedite my visa (on 17 Mar( so there would be no chance I'd be stuck in limbo.

Agreed on mask front, but we've already done that topic to death.

So the day before Caprice's tour de force () was when the Stereophonics concert happened in Cardiff:

I remember being incredibly anxious/worried about that concert but it happened - I think we were maybe ahead of everyone else in fear/concern about the impact of this. I think at this stage it was still just asking people to reduce contacts. And lockdown wasn't even considered as an option in the SAGE minutes until 17 March - it hadn't even been considered as an option before then Caprice got (and you, Tamas, Piers Morgan, the annoying Silicon Valley bro) got there before the scientists advising the government.

[ulmont]

Alabama and South Carolina seem to have more vaccine than Georgia does

Maybe than Atlanta does, but my parents and a few other relatives had zero trouble getting vaccinated months ago in rural southwest Georgia.  The Atlantans I know are also succeeding but that seems to involve much more website refreshing.

[The Minsky Moment]

Can't we all just agree that although lots of people made mistakes, the biggest fool was Wilbur Ross: https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1222863896882679808

[The Minsky Moment]

Looking back at those old posts, I see I mentioned 700K US deaths as a worst case scenario  . . . the fatality rate came in at the low end, but I way overestimated the competence of the US to control spread.