Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Syt]

Happy anniversary! A year ago today the first two Covid-19 cases in Austria were diagnosed in Tyrol.

[Sheilbh]

Same here, I think we've just started our third wave. Despite this, we're relaxing restrictions next week because the public demands it

Apparently something similar in Belgium too - cases are starting to climb but things are getting more relaxed.

I know I'm a bit of a doom-monger on this but I worry the reason countries in Europe are starting to see cases rise/third waves start is because the B117 UK variant is becoming dominant and is more transmissible. Basically it feels like Europe is in the position the UK was at the end of November lockdown/start of December.

I really hope I'm wrong and countries know what they're doing and have done enough to contain it but I'm not convinced that's the case.

[Josquius]

Same here, I think we've just started our third wave. Despite this, we're relaxing restrictions next week because the public demands it

Apparently something similar in Belgium too - cases are starting to climb but things are getting more relaxed.

I know I'm a bit of a doom-monger on this but I worry the reason countries in Europe are starting to see cases rise/third waves start is because the B117 UK variant is becoming dominant and is more transmissible. Basically it feels like Europe is in the position the UK was at the end of November lockdown/start of December.

I really hope I'm wrong and countries know what they're doing and have done enough to contain it but I'm not convinced that's the case.

That's almost certainly the case.
Though they shouldn't be as bad as the UK was at the same time given they have our experience to learn from and vaccine programmes are a lot more advanced.
Plus, you know, competence.

[Duque de Bragança]

Same here, I think we've just started our third wave. Despite this, we're relaxing restrictions next week because the public demands it

Apparently something similar in Belgium too - cases are starting to climb but things are getting more relaxed.

I know I'm a bit of a doom-monger on this but I worry the reason countries in Europe are starting to see cases rise/third waves start is because the B117 UK variant is becoming dominant and is more transmissible. Basically it feels like Europe is in the position the UK was at the end of November lockdown/start of December.

I really hope I'm wrong and countries know what they're doing and have done enough to contain it but I'm not convinced that's the case.

36 % of new cases in France are now linked to the British variant. Local lockdown in Nice; not nice.

Cases start to increase again, after a high plateau the last weeks.

[celedhring]

Same here, I think we've just started our third wave. Despite this, we're relaxing restrictions next week because the public demands it

Apparently something similar in Belgium too - cases are starting to climb but things are getting more relaxed.

I know I'm a bit of a doom-monger on this but I worry the reason countries in Europe are starting to see cases rise/third waves start is because the B117 UK variant is becoming dominant and is more transmissible. Basically it feels like Europe is in the position the UK was at the end of November lockdown/start of December.

I really hope I'm wrong and countries know what they're doing and have done enough to contain it but I'm not convinced that's the case.

That's almost certainly the case.
Though they shouldn't be as bad as the UK was at the same time given they have our experience to learn from and vaccine programmes are a lot more advanced.
Plus, you know, competence.

Heh, I wouldn't be that confident about the competence bit.

Vaccination, however, will hopefully make a lot of a difference. Even if we're not going as fast as we'd hope, we're close to giving the first shot to every 80+ year old in the country, that alone should put a significant dent on the fatality rate of a fourth wave.

[Sheilbh]

Yes vaccines will help but I think it may vary a lot by country because there are very different approaches. I follow an Italian living in the UK on Twitter who is routinely apoplectic about Italy's approach which is prioritising healthcare workers (apparently defined very broadly, so it includes people sat in an office in Rome as well as front-line workes) and some other professions over the elderly.

Edit: Also I do think not delaying the second dose was a mistake in this context (shortage of supply - unlike the US - and facing a more transmissible variant). The majority of vaccinations being done each day in France and Italy, for example, are now second doses.

[Sheilbh]

That's almost certainly the case.
Though they shouldn't be as bad as the UK was at the same time given they have our experience to learn from and vaccine programmes are a lot more advanced.
Plus, you know, competence.

Quite. I was just listening to a thing with Devi Sridhar which was interesting on this. In the UK because we closed schools in December for Christmas (and then since in spite of Williamson's nonsense).

She said that Denmark is now really interesting because Denmark was able to re-open schools earlier than almost anyone - they re-opened schools last spring. They've never close since. In the last two weeks as the new variant has become dominant, they've had to shut two districts. It seems like there may be something in the new variant (possibly just that it is more transmissible including with kids) that make schools more of a vector now than they have been for the last year.

Which I didn't know and is interesting. Hopefully by the time we re-open schools in 10 days, cases will be low enough for this not to be an issue.

[Syt]

Austrian daily cases back up over 2000. So two weeks after re-opening shops the numbers go back up again. Might be connected, might not be, could also be more easily spread mutations are becoming prevalent. ICU cases also sharply increase.

Meanwhile there's considerations to re-open bars and restaurants in March, with the requirement to show a negative test to be admitted.

EDIT: Mayrhofen will be locked off because high case numbers. You can't leave the municipality without a negative test (unless you're a daily commuter ), and all inhabitants must undergo testing.

Almost 2400 new cases today. Chancellor Kurz, in an interview with the German BILD "newspaper" basically shrugged and said that lockdowns lose their value, because people don't follow them, anyways.

[Duque de Bragança]

Interesting poll in France:

Men want to be vaccinated more than women.

https://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/covid-19-les-hommes-sont-plus-nombreux-que-les-femmes-a-vouloir-etre-vaccines-20210225

Percentage is not nearly enough but I will take it. I wonder what the misandrist feminists think of it. 

PS: just a poll, so hardly the ultimate and only truth before anyone gets too excited. The comments section is already showing some promise. 

[Sheilbh]

Updated weekly stats on vaccinations still show very high take-up of the vaccine when offered (generally). This is why I think there does need to be a bit of context around hesitancy in BME communities that, it is in the context of extraordinary enthusiasm for vaccination in the UK

NHS England weekly stats published to 21st Feb. 1st dose has gone to:
94.3% of over-80s
100.3% (!!) of 75-79
94.4% of 70-74
75.3% of 65-69
15.9% of under-65s

96.4% of frontline NHS staff
89.4% of clinically extremely vulnerable
89.6% of older care residents
69.1% of care staff

Obviously the age category figures look a little odd (100.3%) - this is because the assumed figure is based on ONS data from mid-2019. For obvious reasons they weren't really able to do an update of that data in 2020, so you would probably expect most age groups to grow.

[celedhring]

The Spanish ministry of health has released vaccine take-up rate and so far it is 97% 

The refusals include people that already had Covid and declined the vaccine.

[Josquius]

The Spanish ministry of health has released vaccine take-up rate and so far it is 97% 

The refusals include people that already had Covid and declined the vaccine.

Wow. Spanish people are great.
Vox to get 0.1% at the next election?

[celedhring]

I wish. Besides, Vox aren't anti-vax or covid deniers (one of their leaders got a very bad case of it early on), just anti-lockdown.

The people we have vaccinated (health care workers and over 80s) are probably the least likely to refuse it, too.

[mongers]

Updated weekly stats on vaccinations still show very high take-up of the vaccine when offered (generally). This is why I think there does need to be a bit of context around hesitancy in BME communities that, it is in the context of extraordinary enthusiasm for vaccination in the UK

NHS England weekly stats published to 21st Feb. 1st dose has gone to:
94.3% of over-80s
100.3% (!!) of 75-79
94.4% of 70-74
75.3% of 65-69
15.9% of under-65s

96.4% of frontline NHS staff
89.4% of clinically extremely vulnerable
89.6% of older care residents
69.1% of care staff

Obviously the age category figures look a little odd (100.3%) - this is because the assumed figure is based on ONS data from mid-2019. For obvious reasons they weren't really able to do an update of that data in 2020, so you would probably expect most age groups to grow.

Very promising news.

[Sheilbh]

The Guardian have analysed the figures in Europe and Germany's actually doing quite well in use of the AZ vaccine. I think this is a problem in the context of a pandemic:

Revealed: four in five Oxford Covid jabs delivered to EU not yet used
Guardian finding comes as Angela Merkel talks of vaccine's 'acceptance problem'
Daniel Boffey in Brussels
Thu 25 Feb 2021 15.52 GMT
First published on Thu 25 Feb 2021 15.21 GMT

Four out of five of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine doses delivered to EU countries are yet to be used, a Guardian investigation has found, as Angela Merkel admitted to an "acceptance problem" among Europeans being offered the jab.

Using data extracted from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and other official sources, it is estimated that 4,849,752 of the 6,134,707 doses distributed among the 27 member states have not yet been administered.

The decision by authorities in France, Germany, Poland and Italy to recommend use of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine only for people under 65 is likely to be a significant factor in its slow administration, with authorities failing to redirect jabs to younger people.

But in an interview with the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Merkel conceded that the vaccine was also being rejected by people concerned over its efficacy and safety following a slew of bad publicity.

"There is ... currently an acceptance problem with the AstraZeneca vaccine," Merkel said. "AstraZeneca is a reliable vaccine, effective and safe, approved by the European Medicines Agency and recommended in Germany up to the age of 65 years. All the authorities tell us that this vaccine can be trusted. As long as vaccines are as scarce as they are now, you cannot choose what to vaccinate with."

Asked whether she would volunteer to be administered with the vaccine, Merkel said: "I am 66 years old and I do not belong to the recommended group for AstraZeneca."

Later on Thursday, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, said he would gladly accept an AstraZeneca dose if it were offered when his turn for vaccination comes.

"In view of the latest scientific studies, the efficacy of the AstraZeneca vaccine has been proven," Macron said. "My turn will come, but I've got time. If that's the vaccine that's offered to me, I will take it, of course."

Last month Macron caused some consternation when he suggested without substance that the AstraZeneca vaccine was "quasi-ineffective" in over-65s.

Data analysed by the Guardian, while vulnerable to a short time lag in reporting by member states, highlights some eye-catching discrepancies between the amount of AstraZeneca vaccine available in member states and its administration to the population.

Belgium has received 201,600 AstraZeneca doses and administered just 9,832 (4%), according to the ECDC, an EU agency. Bulgaria received 117,600 doses and administered 2,035 (1.73%), while Germany has received 1,452,000 doses and administered 189,206 (13%).

According to the ECDC, Italy has had 499,200 AstraZeneca doses delivered and its health practitioners have given just 96,621 jabs (19%).

In contrast, four out of five of the Pfizer vaccine doses supplied to Belgium (81%), Italy (80%) and Germany (82%) have been administered, the ECDC data suggests.

France has not submitted data to the ECDC on how many of its 1,137,600 Oxford/AstraZeneca doses it has administered, but figures provided by the vaccine tracker website Covidtracker.fr estimates the figure at just 125,859 (11%).

Prof Alain Fischer, the "Monsieur Vaccin" overseeing France's vaccination programme, told a press conference in Paris on Thursday that the AstraZeneca vaccine had received an "unjustifiably bad press". The latest data showed it was "at least as effective" as the Pfizer and Moderna jabs and entirely safe, he said, adding: "This is a very good vaccine and should be used by everyone who is offered it, without hesitation."

The EU's vaccination rollout has been heavily criticised owing to a lack of supply in recent months, with reported shortfalls in production by AstraZeneca, Moderna and Pfizer.

However, the data suggests pejorative comments about AstraZeneca, along with the decision by some regulatory authorities to recommend use for only the younger age groups until more data is available, has also had a significant impact.

The European Medicines Agency approved the AstraZeneca vaccine for use in all age groups, but some national bodies have advised against use in the older age ranges given the lack of data available on efficacy at the time.

Dr June Raine, the chief executive of the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, defended its decision to approve for all ages at the time, noting that "current evidence does not suggest any lack of protection against Covid-19 in people aged 65", and adding that it produced "a strong immune response in the over-65s".

The vaccine is in widespread use in the UK along with that produced by Pfizer/BioNTech, with preliminary data showing high levels of efficacy among older people.

Prof Thomas Mertens, who chairs Germany's standing commission on vaccination, which advised Merkel's government in January on not using AstraZeneca in the older age groups, told BBC Radio 4's Today problem that lack of uptake in his country was "a problem no doubt at the moment".

He said: "It is true, unfortunately. We are working quite hard on this point to try and convince people to accept the vaccine and to build up again the trust in the vaccine in the population. But as you know this is some kind of psychological problem too and it will unfortunately take some time to reach this goal."

Asked whether his committee's advice was to blame, he told the BBC: "It may be part of the problem although we always stated it had nothing to do with the safety of the vaccine; we never criticised the vaccine for being unsafe.

"We stated that the amount of data for this group of elderly people was not really great, it was quite small at the time, when we had to give the recommendation. But I don't think that was the major problem. The major problem was the news spread about the efficacy of the vaccine being much lower than the mRNA vaccines [for example Pfizer's] that started earlier."

Edit: Incidentally really interesting thread on India's success in driving the number of cases down:
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1364935235255881733

I've heard similar from some very under-developed African countries. As with Vietnam's success and the relative failures of Europe, the US and Latin America - it's fairly clear that the wealth of a country isn't necessarily a big factor in outcomes with covid.