Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Syt]

Austrian daily cases back up over 2000. So two weeks after re-opening shops the numbers go back up again. Might be connected, might not be, could also be more easily spread mutations are becoming prevalent. ICU cases also sharply increase.

Meanwhile there's considerations to re-open bars and restaurants in March, with the requirement to show a negative test to be admitted.

EDIT: Mayrhofen will be locked off because high case numbers. You can't leave the municipality without a negative test (unless you're a daily commuter ), and all inhabitants must undergo testing.

[Sheilbh]

Been mentioning Denmark for a while as a canary in the coal mine in Europe because they do a lot of sequencing and currently have a reasonably strict lockdown. The percent of positives tests that are B117 now appears to be around 55-60% of all cases (it was around 5% in first week of January) and following a very long decline of old variants there are signs that cases are starting to rise again. I don't think they've actually changed the restrictions, so this is despite them:

[Maladict]

Been mentioning Denmark for a while as a canary in the coal mine in Europe because they do a lot of sequencing and currently have a reasonably strict lockdown. The percent of positives tests that are B117 now appears to be around 55-60% of all cases (it was around 5% in first week of January) and following a very long decline of old variants there are signs that cases are starting to rise again. I don't think they've actually changed the restrictions, so this is despite them:

Same here, I think we've just started our third wave. Despite this, we're relaxing restrictions next week because the public demands it

[Duque de Bragança]

The new lockdown brought back figures to October levels in Portugal. That's something.

As for France, the new hotspot for variants is Dunkerque. I blame the Brits, obviously.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting and good news report on rising willingness to get jabbed in the UK - I think a successful roll-out, plus responsible reporting, will encourage people more than anything else we can do, but still good to see.

Major rise in public support for COVID vaccine – Oxford study

More than three quarters of people in the UK now say they are 'very likely' to have the vaccine – up from 50% among the same group of survey respondents five months ago –according to a two-wave Oxford University survey published today.

Age remains a strong predictor of willingness to take the vaccine but, between the first survey in October and the second in February, all age groups showed significantly increased support for taking the vaccine.
    All age groups over 50 now record more than 90% acceptance (People in their 50s show a 17% increase in support).
    All adults show more than 80% acceptance.

Both men and women have become more supportive of a vaccine, with women's willingness to have a jab increasing from 73.6% to nearly 88% and men's acceptance rising from 82% to nearly 90%.

Despite this steep shift in public opinion, however, Oxford researchers found important gaps remain, driven by income, political values and ethnicity. 

The survey of 1,200 UK residents, contacted in early October 2020 and again in the first week of February 2021, revealed strong relationships between political attitudes and the intention to accept the vaccine. The survey found:
     People on lower incomes are, on average, less willing to take the vaccine.
All income groups show more than 80% willingness to take the vaccine, but the wealthiest groups now show more than 90% acceptance. Going against the broad trend towards vaccine uptake, this gap has widened somewhat since October from 13% to 15%. 

    Whether you voted for Brexit appears related to vaccine acceptance. The study found 'Remainers' are 7% points more likely willing to take the vaccine than 'Leavers' or those who did not vote in the 2016 referendum.
But all groups have increased willingness to take the vaccine with support at more than 85% across the Brexit divide.

    People who voted Brexit party or Green in 2019 – and especially those who did not vote at all - are the least willing to take the vaccine, with SNP and Liberal voters most positively inclined.  Supporters of Nigel Farage's new Reform UK party are the most hesitant, with just over 50% saying they will take the vaccine, compared to 100% of SNP voters.
The non-voters showed little increase between the two surveys, with some 75% now saying they will accept the vaccine. But Conservative and Labour voters reported acceptance of some 93% with increases of 10.3% and nearly 13% respectively. But Brexit party voters' support for the vaccine increased by more than 16% to 86% acceptance.

    The opinion of ethnic minority participants has edged slightly in favour of the vaccine, but still trails the white population. 
In October, some 58% of people from ethnic minorities said they would be likely to take the vaccine. This has increased to more than 80%. But, at the same time, the levels of white British supporting the jab has increased from nearly 80% in the autumn to more than 90% in the second survey.

    There is no evidence that noting the UK's leading role in approving or developing the vaccine affects willingness to take it.
    Respondents were broadly supportive of the government's performance in rolling out the vaccine and in who received priority for the vaccine but showed greater concerns about the policy of delaying the second dose of the vaccine.

Ben Ansell, Professor of Comparative Democratic Institutions at the Department of Politics and International Relations, says, 'This multi-wave study gives us a rare glimpse of whose opinions have shifted and why. People have become massively more supportive of taking the vaccine overall but important gaps remain especially among groups whose trust in politicians is typically lower: non-voters, younger citizens, and poorer households.'

'When so much of the UK Government's lockdown exit strategy rests on successful vaccine roll out, these insights will be of immediate importance to policymakers in both their internal deliberation on policy and their outward facing communication with the public.'

    Professor Ben Ansell

The study, part of the University of Oxford funded research project 'Coping with COVID-19', was conducted on a representative sample of over 1,600 UK mainland adults using the polling company YouGov. Over 1,200 respondents responded to both the October and February surveys. The study was co-authored by scholars from the University of Oxford, London School of Economics, and University College London.

The Coping with COVID-19 project aims to discover what factors affect trust in the government's coronavirus strategy.

There are some indications of differences among minority groups - British Indians are very significantly more likely to get the vaccine now, the most reluctant amont BME communities are still black, Bengali and Pakistani communities.

Edit: Somehow fucked up the formatting and cannot unbold - so just imagine that I'm SHOUTING everything

[Josquius]

The lack of pensioners swinging from trees and eating bananas probably helped.

[Sheilbh]

Does seem there's real reluctance to take the AZ vaccine in Germany. Apparently there are over 1.5million doses have been delivered to Germany but under 250k have actually been used. Hopefully it's not similar in other countries because that's a significant amount vaccine that's just sat in a fridge.

I'd almost be inclined if that's an issue to go off list and offer it to people who aren't otherwise eligible just now but would want to take the AZ vaccine.

[Barrister]

Canada has made vaccinating remote northern communities a priority because those communities don't have easy access to hospitals.

Fort Chipewyan is a first nations community of about 1100 in the far north-eastern corner of Alberta.  Half of the community has been vaccinated - but the other half is refusing, having been scared off by social media.

We all knew that vaccination rates wouldn't be 100%, but I hope to God that it's going to be higher than 50% in the wider community.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-chipewyan-covid-19-vaccine-1.5925328

[celedhring]

Does seem there's real reluctance to take the AZ vaccine in Germany. Apparently there are over 1.5million doses have been delivered to Germany but under 250k have actually been used. Hopefully it's not similar in other countries because that's a significant amount vaccine that's just sat in a fridge.

I'd almost be inclined if that's an issue to go off list and offer it to people who aren't otherwise eligible just now but would want to take the AZ vaccine.

AZ is the vaccine with the worst usage rate in Spain, too. Rather than people refusing to take it, though, regions have complained that the "only for under 55s" authorization makes it difficult for them to use it effectively, since their resources are currently deployed for vaccinating other age groups. That might be the reason for Germany, too.

[Duque de Bragança]

Canada has made vaccinating remote northern communities a priority because those communities don't have easy access to hospitals.

Fort Chipewyan is a first nations community of about 1100 in the far north-eastern corner of Alberta.  Half of the community has been vaccinated - but the other half is refusing, having been scared off by social media.

We all knew that vaccination rates wouldn't be 100%, but I hope to God that it's going to be higher than 50% in the wider community.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-chipewyan-covid-19-vaccine-1.5925328

So is it vaccine hesitancy or plain anti-vaccine behavior? 

[Barrister]

Canada has made vaccinating remote northern communities a priority because those communities don't have easy access to hospitals.

Fort Chipewyan is a first nations community of about 1100 in the far north-eastern corner of Alberta.  Half of the community has been vaccinated - but the other half is refusing, having been scared off by social media.

We all knew that vaccination rates wouldn't be 100%, but I hope to God that it's going to be higher than 50% in the wider community.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-chipewyan-covid-19-vaccine-1.5925328

So is it vaccine hesitancy or plain anti-vaccine? 

I dunno - read the article and decide for yourself.

At the end when they mention they're trying to decide what to do with the remaining doses, it sounds like they don't think the remaining community members are going to change their minds any time soon.

[Sheilbh]

AZ is the vaccine with the worst usage rate in Spain, too. Rather than people refusing to take it, though, regions have complained that the "only for under 55s" authorization makes it difficult for them to use it effectively, since their resources are currently deployed for vaccinating other age groups. That might be the reason for Germany, too.

Yeah. I hope that will change because the EMA noted it was fine for the over-65s and though there wasn't data on effectiveness, there were no reasons to think it wasn't effective and some evidence (such as antibody levels) that it was. So from an EMA perspective it is authorised for the over-65s.

There's now a study from Scotland looking at the data from the entire national vaccine program which covers the effectiveness for over-65s. I don't know if that'll be enough for the European regulators that have restricted use or if they need a formal trial (which is being conducted for the FDA).

Similarly the AZ vaccine already had data that it was effective for at least 3 months and there's now emerging data from various analyses of the data in the UK about delaying the second dose (including for Pfizer - which didn't study this in the trials) up to at least 6 weeks.

It feels like there are things that might help there. If you delay the second dose even by six weeks you would double supply for first doses right now, similarly rolling out the AZ for the over-65s. But as I say I don't know if regulators in some European countries would accept just data analysis from the UK rather than a formal, structured trial.

[Duque de Bragança]

Local lockdown for Dunkerque, first time local lockdown for all France.
Plus no more booze drinking in the street allowed, nor takeaway alcohol buy, for the whole département. 

[celedhring]

Local lockdown for Dunkerque

Wasn't too effective last time. 

[Jacob]

I dunno - read the article and decide for yourself.

At the end when they mention they're trying to decide what to do with the remaining doses, it sounds like they don't think the remaining community members are going to change their minds any time soon.

That's frustrating.