Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Grey Fox]

Entering week 9 of lockdown. We get a 4 day break for Xmas, other than that it will last at least until January 11th.

[viper37]

No lockdown here, bars&restaurants open.  Touching wood.

[Syt]

Austria had the second day with over 100 deaths (108) within a week.  While this may not sound like much in absolute numbers, relative to population it would be comparable to 1000 deaths in Germany, or 3700 in the US. New infections were "only" 6668 yesterday. For over 80% of infections tracers can't determine the cause. The actual number of cases is likely a lot higher since a lot of contact persons without symptoms aren't tested anymore.

[Admiral Yi]

For over 80% of infections tracers can't determine the cause.

I didn't see how this was going to work in the absence of intrusive tracking, like South Korea and smart phones.

[Syt]

[Valmy]

Wait is that a real headline? 

[Syt]

Wait is that a real headline? 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1362343/boris-johnson-coronavirus-save-christmas-vaccination-centres-latest

And so is this: "BBC backlash: MPs demand crackdown on 'woke' broadcaster and liberal elite attacking UK"
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1362966/bbc-bias-national-trust-liberal-elite-woke-britain-common-sense-group



Anyways, again over 100 deaths reported yesterday in Austria. New cases at around 6600. In positive news, the number of known active cases has leveled off (except in Vienna where the numbers keep creeping up).

[Sheilbh]

Wait is that a real headline? 

It's the Express

They used to be someone, but now they're behind broadsheets like the Times and the Telegraph as well as almost all the other tabloids. They've got lower circulation than the Sun, Mirror, Mail, Star etc.

[grumbler]

Wait is that a real headline? 

No, it's from a British newspaper.  British newspapers are to newspapers as American politicians are to politicians.

[Sheilbh]

The scientific effort it must have taken to get to a headline like this is so incredible:

US, Germany and UK could start Covid vaccinations as early as December
Spain plans to have a quarter of its population vaccinated within the first three years of 2021
Helen Sullivan and agencies
@helenrsullivan
Mon 23 Nov 2020 02.41 GMT

As G20 leaders pledged to ensure the equitable distribution of Covid-19 vaccines, drugs and tests so that poorer countries are not left out, the US, UK and Germany each announced plans to begin vaccinations in their countries in December, while Spain said it would start administering the vaccine to its citizens in January.

Britain could give regulatory approval to Pfizer-BioNTech's Covid-19 vaccine as early as this week, even before the US authorises it, the UK's Telegraph newspaper reported on Sunday. Pfizer and BioNTech could secure emergency US and European authorisation for their Covid-19 vaccine next month after final trial results showed a 95% success rate and no serious side effects.

Moderna last week released preliminary data for its vaccine showing 94.5% effectiveness.

The better-than-expected results from the two vaccines, both developed with new messenger RNA (mRNA) technology, have raised hopes of an easing of a pandemic that has killed more than 1.3 million people.

In the US, the head of the US vaccine program, Moncef Slaoui, said the first Americans to receive a vaccine could get it as soon as 11 December, CNN reported on Sunday.

"Our plan is to be able to ship vaccines to the immunisation sites within 24 hours from the approval, so I expect maybe on day two after approval on the 11th or the 12th of December," he said in an interview to CNN.

Citing government sources, the Telegraph also said the UK's National Health Service had been told to be ready to administer it by 1 December.

Britain formally asked its medical regulator, the MHRA, last week to assess the suitability of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The UK Department of Health had no comment on Sunday on when the first vaccinations would be administered.

Britain has ordered 40m doses and expects to have 10m doses, enough to protect 5 million people, available by the end of the year if regulators approve it.

Germany could also start administering shots of Covid-19 vaccines as soon as next month, health minister Jens Spahn was quoted as saying on Sunday. He said Spain and Germany were the first European Union countries to have a complete vaccination plan in place.

"There is reason to be optimistic that there will be approval for a vaccine in Europe this year," Spahn said in an interview with publishing group RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland. "And then we can start right away."

Spahn said he had asked Germany's federal states to have their vaccination centres ready by mid-December and that this was going well. "I would rather have a vaccination centre ready a few days early than an approved vaccine that isn't being used immediately."

Germany has secured more than 300m vaccine doses via the European Commission, bilateral contracts and options, Spahn said, adding that this was more than enough and even left room to share doses with other countries.

Spain will begin a comprehensive vaccination programme in January and expects to have covered a substantial part of the population within three months, the prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, said on Sunday.

"The campaign will start in January and have 13,000 vaccination points," Sanchez told a news conference after a two-day online summit of G20 leaders. "A very substantial part of the population will be able to be vaccinated, with all guarantees, in the first quarter of the year."

Meanwhile, nearly 2bn doses of Covid-19 vaccines will be shipped and flown to developing countries next year in a "mammoth operation", the UN children's agency Unicef said on Monday, as world leaders vowed to ensure the fair distribution of vaccines.

Unicef said it was working with more than 350 airlines and freight companies to deliver vaccines and a billion syringes to poor countries such as Burundi, Afghanistan and Yemen as part of Covax, a global Covid-19 vaccine allocation plan with the World Health Organization (WHO).

"This invaluable collaboration will go a long way to ensure that enough transport capacity is in place for this historic and mammoth operation," said Etleva Kadilli, director of Unicef's supply division, in a statement.

Covax – co-led by Gavi vaccine group, the WHO and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations – aims to discourage governments from hoarding Covid-19 vaccines and to focus on first vaccinating the most at risk in every country.

Unicef's role with Covax stems from its status as the largest single vaccine buyer in the world. It said it procures more than 2bn doses of vaccines annually for routine immunisation and outbreak response on behalf of nearly 100 countries.

[DGuller]

The scientific effort it must have taken to get to a headline like this is so incredible:

US, Germany and UK could start Covid vaccinations as early as December
Spain plans to have a quarter of its population vaccinated within the first three years of 2021

If you think 2020 was long, just wait until 2021.

[Iormlund]

Time to throw Phil down the pit mine.

[Syt]

On the weekend, there was a protest against Covid measures in Germany where one speaker compared herself with Sophie Scholl because she too has been in the resistance for months now. One of the securities then approached her, telling her that he would never do this job again, and that she was trivializing the holocaust. She then left the stage, crying.

A few weeks ago an 11 year old girl read a text "that she wrote" saying she can understand how Anne Frank felt hiding from the Germans, because she wasn't allowed to invite friends to her birthday party and had to stay inside.

[The Larch]

More vaccine news, this time about the Oxford - AstraZeneca one:

Oxford AstraZeneca Covid vaccine has up to 90% efficacy, data reveals

A coronavirus vaccine developed in the UK can prevent 70.4% of people from getting Covid-19 and up to 90% if a lower dose is used, according to data.

Oxford University and AstraZeneca have announced their jab is effective in preventing many people getting ill and it has been shown to work in different age groups, including the elderly. There are early indications it might also help stop the spread of the disease.

Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at the University of Oxford, said: "The announcement today takes us another step closer to the time when we can use vaccines to bring an end to the devastation caused by [Covid-19].

"We will continue to work to provide the detailed information to regulators. It has been a privilege to be part of this multi-national effort, which will reap benefits for the whole world."

Oxford University said interim analysis from its phase 3 vaccine trial showed that the efficacy of their vaccine is 70%. But that came from combining the results of two different dosing regimes, one of which was 90% and the other was 62%. The 90% regime involved a half-dose first and then a full dose of the vaccine later. The interim analysis was based on 131 infections among participants who received the vaccine and those in a control group who were given an established meningitis shot.

In a statement, Prof Andrew Pollard, the director of the Oxford Vaccine Group and chief investigator of the Oxford vaccine trial, said: "These findings show that we have an effective vaccine that will save many lives. Excitingly, we've found that one of our dosing regimens may be around 90% effective and if this dosing regime is used, more people could be vaccinated with planned vaccine supply.

"Today's announcement is only possible thanks to the many volunteers in our trial, and the hard-working and talented team of researchers based around the world."

He said that if people were first given a half-dose of the Oxford vaccine followed by a full dose a month later, they had 90% protection.

"There is just a hint in the data at the moment that those who got that regime with higher protection, there is a suggestion that it was also able to reduce asymptomatic infection," he told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme. "If that is right, we might be able to halt the virus in its tracks and stop transmitting between people."

His colleague, Prof Sarah Gilbert, professor of Vaccinology at the University of Oxford, said: "The announcement today takes us another step closer to the time when we can use vaccines to bring an end to the devastation caused by Sars-CoV-2. We will continue to work to provide the detailed information to regulators. It has been a privilege to be part of this multi-national effort which will reap benefits for the whole world."

AstraZeneca's chief executive, Pascal Soriot, said: "Today marks an important milestone in our fight against the pandemic. This vaccine's efficacy and safety confirm that it will be highly effective against Covid-19 and will have an immediate impact on this public health emergency.

"Furthermore, the vaccine's simple supply chain and our no-profit pledge and commitment to broad, equitable and timely access means it will be affordable and globally available, supplying hundreds of millions of doses on approval."

The UK has placed orders for 100m doses of the Oxford vaccine – enough to vaccinate most of the population – with rollout expected in the coming weeks if the jab is approved.

It also has orders for 40m doses of a jab from Pfizer and BioNTech, which has been shown to have 95% efficacy. Another jab from Moderna has 95% efficacy, according to trial data.

Australia has ordered 33.8m doses of the vaccine.

The UK health secretary, Matt Hancock, called the data "really encouraging news", but stressed that vaccines needed to be approved by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA).

"This is really encouraging news on the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine, that obviously we've been backing since the start," he told Sky News. "And I'm really very pleased, really welcome these figures, this data, that show that the vaccine in the right dosage can be up to 90% effective.

"Of course, it's vital that the independent regulator, the MHRA, will need to look at the data, will need to check to make sure that it's effective and safe of course. But we've got 100m doses on order and should all that go well, the bulk of the rollout will be in the new year."

He added: "And of course this vaccine, this homegrown vaccine, is easier to administer as well than the Pfizer vaccine, because it doesn't need to be stored at -70. So having two vaccines that appear to have effectiveness, done right, in the 90% range is really, really good news."

Boris Johnson said: "Incredibly exciting news the Oxford vaccine has proved so effective in trials. There are still further safety checks ahead, but these are fantastic results. Well done to our brilliant scientists at UniofOxford & AstraZeneca, and all who volunteered in the trials."

The business secretary, Alok Sharma, said the results of an interim analysis of the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca's coronavirus vacccine candidate were "very promising".

He tweeted: "Very promising data from the Oxford/AstraZeneca Phase III clinical trials. We are on the cusp of a huge scientific breakthrough that could protect millions of lives. The UK has secured early access to 100m doses of their vaccine – on top of 255m doses from other developers."

To be noted that the initial article I saw only quoted 70% efficacy, as the 90% is achieved tinkering with the dossage, apparently. It also seems to be much cheaper and easier to store and transport than the other two:

How good is the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid vaccine?
Interim results from phase 3 trials in Britain and Brazil found the vaccine to be 70.4% protective. More than 20,000 volunteers were involved in the trials and half of those were in the UK. Investigators recorded 30 cases of Covid-19 in people who had two doses of the vaccine and 101 in those who received a control jab. In those who received two full doses, the vaccine was 62% protective. But it appears to work better when given initially as a half-dose followed by a full dose, with protection then rising to 90%.

How much will it cost?
The Oxford vaccine is far cheaper than others that have shown efficacy. AstraZeneca aim to sell the Oxford vaccine for $3-4 per shot, compared with $20 for the Pfizer/BioNTech shot and $25 for Moderna's.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/23/oxford-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-everything-we-know-so-far

[Sheilbh]

To be noted that the initial article I saw only quoted 70% efficacy, as the 90% is achieved tinkering with the dossage, apparently. It also seems to be much cheaper and easier to store and transport than the other two:

Yeah - I don't think it needs the very cold storage like the Pfizer one and, as you say, is much cheaper. I hadn't realised but apparently this vaccine is really important because it makes up the bulk of orders by low and middle income countries. For richer countries it's great that we've now got three viable sounding candidates, for everyone else this is great news.

They don't have a reason for the difference for the 90% thing which is interesting but it should make orders go further if each person needs 1.5 doses rather than 2.

Edit: Chart on this from Bloomberg: