Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Interesting massive Italian serological study. Particularly relevant given conversations about IFR is how skewed this disease is based on age - so the implied IFR they estimate by age group is:
0-17:  0.002%
18-34:  0.02%
35-49:  0.11%
50-59:  0.40%
60-69:  1.74%
>70:     8.30%
Again it keeps striking just how lethal this disease is for the elderly. Obviously it's a particular risk in a country like Italy.

Interestingly no difference by profession (with the exception of healthcare workers) and no difference between locked down/furloughed/wfh and those who weren't. About a third were asymptomatic. Also striking (and I think this was part of the reason the UK advisors said they didn't include in the list of key symptoms) while 37% of people with covid reported loss of senses of taste/smell, only 25% of the people who had loss of sense of taste/smell tested positive.

[alfred russel]

If you were thinking of sending your kids to school, you might want to rethink that.

WSB Atlanta: Hundreds of Georgia campers infected with coronavirus at YMCA camp in just days, CDC report finds.
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/hundreds-georgia-campers-infected-with-coronavirus-ymca-summer-camp-cdc-report-finds/EL5FFTVSDVETRGROPEXK6CIZNM/

Going back to school is the right choice. The mortality rates are so low, and the consequences of a year out of school so high. There are a lot of different studies that find a link between education and life expectancy. The link below from the National Bureau of Economic Research indicates a year of education adds on average 0.6 years to life expectancy. That is before you take into account socialization and other factors so important to childhood development that kids won't be getting if they stay home.

Kids with educated and diligent parents may be able to make due with the lack of schooling, but especially in lower income and at risk households there is a real problem with getting kids to log on and do distance learning. That is just one part of the iceberg which includes nutrition that many children depend on schools to provide and identifying social problems at home (there has been a massive decrease in reported child abuse).

https://www.nber.org/digest/mar07/w12352.html#:~:text=Using%20data%20from%20the%20National%20Longitudinal%20Mortality%20Study,rate%2C%20or%20by%200.6%20years%20without%20any%20discounting.

[Tamas]

I have a 1-in-1000 chance of dying if I catch it? Damn. That's actually higher than I am comfortable with, if I am honest. 

[alfred russel]

I have a 1-in-1000 chance of dying if I catch it? Damn. That's actually higher than I am comfortable with, if I am honest.

You probably have worse than a 1-50 chance of dying in the 2020s, even without corona.

[Tamas]

I have a 1-in-1000 chance of dying if I catch it? Damn. That's actually higher than I am comfortable with, if I am honest.

You probably have worse than a 1-50 chance of dying in the 2020s, even without corona.

Even worse, my chance of dying eventually is 100%. I'd ask what your point is but I already know.

[Sheilbh]

I have a 1-in-1000 chance of dying if I catch it? Damn. That's actually higher than I am comfortable with, if I am honest.

You probably have worse than a 1-50 chance of dying in the 2020s, even without corona.

Yeah - it's lower risk than accidents. The gradient on covid is so steep but for those of us under 55 it's like this:

[Tamas]

I have a 1-in-1000 chance of dying if I catch it? Damn. That's actually higher than I am comfortable with, if I am honest.

You probably have worse than a 1-50 chance of dying in the 2020s, even without corona.

Yeah - it's lower risk than accidents. The gradient on covid is so steep but for those of us under 55 it's like this:

Well what I am seeing is that accidents are barely over Covid at age 40 and then Covid rapidly puts accidents in its rear view mirror before you hit 44.

[PDH]

I'm doomed

[Sheilbh]

Well what I am seeing is that accidents are barely over Covid at age 40 and then Covid rapidly puts accidents in its rear view mirror before you hit 44.

Yeah. I've posted this before but you can see the comparison of the 16 weeks with covid v an average 16 weeks:


It's also worth noting that of those figures 80% of people have pre-existing conditions, but about 40% of the population has those pre-existing conditions - I suspect it might be higher in the US but I'm not sure. So the rate for those without pre-existing conditions is under a third of those above.

As I say the thing that strikes me with all this isn't how terrifying covid is for me on a personal level, but how different the risk profile is for people with pre-existing conditions or over 60/with age. Basically my understanding is the chance of dying from covid doubles every 7 years you add. It really emphasises how important us protecting the vulnerable and doing everything we can to make it comfortable for the vulnerable to shield.

I sort of feel like the lockdown change I am least comfortable with was that vulnerable people no longer need to shield, but I get that it's probably really difficult for them after several months of already shielding to go through more of that, especially when so much of society goes back to normal.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting piece on Italy and Sweden which now have the same per capita rate - of note is infections seem to be trailing off in Sweden, also striking is that Swedes have actually moved to working from home more and use public transport less than Italians despite no formal lockdown:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-04/italy-and-sweden-are-taming-the-coronavirus-s-potential-second-wave?sref=2o0rZsF1&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view&utm_content=view&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true

Also surprising/interesting - according to the monitoring of measures by that Oxford institute and Our World in Data, the UK has the strictest anti-covid measures (such as lock down restrictions etc) of countries discussed in the report (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Sweden).

[DGuller]

I have a 1-in-1000 chance of dying if I catch it? Damn. That's actually higher than I am comfortable with, if I am honest.

Are you comfortable with a 2-in-1000 chance of dying?  That's what you're living through every year at your age.

[Tamas]

I have a 1-in-1000 chance of dying if I catch it? Damn. That's actually higher than I am comfortable with, if I am honest.

Are you comfortable with a 2-in-1000 chance of dying?  That's what you're living through every year at your age.

Your point being?

[Zoupa]

None, probably.

AR and others are obsessed with the death rate, ignoring the many complications related to getting Covid and recovering from it.

[HisMajestyBOB]

I have a 1-in-1000 chance of dying if I catch it? Damn. That's actually higher than I am comfortable with, if I am honest.

Are you comfortable with a 2-in-1000 chance of dying?  That's what you're living through every year at your age.

Your point being?

You can safely ignore anything that has a risk of death lower than your base death rate.

[Sheilbh]

Who is still going on cruises? Why are cruises still happening?
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/08/03/hurtigruten-covid-19-outbreak-passengers-crew-infected-cruise/5570867002/