Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Admiral Yi]

I know you mean it as an insult, but I take it as a compliment.  One of the saddest casualties of the Covid-19 has been the death of critical thinking.  AR somehow avoided the first wave, maybe the mountains protected him.

I disagree with AR much more than I agree with him here.  But you know what?  His arguments are much harder to debunk than other people's arguments than line up with my view of things.  One of the things that I absolutely detest is coming up with a result first and then back-fitting the analysis to get there, to me that is a mortal sin, and it's never going to lead you to a good place.  This thread is polluted with such sinners here, and many of them also aggravate their intellectual dishonesty with completely inexcusable level of bullying (I suspect partly because they always come off second-best in direct debate of facts).

What you are describing is the effect of outrage IMO and I totally agree.

[Barrister]

I think CC would really prefer to just compare everyone to BC.

That would be ideal, New Zealand also works along with a few other places that did this right.  It is a bit horrifying to watch people like AF make comparisons to others that have done poorly to say they are not so bad.

New Zealand and other island nations are really bad comparisons for those of us living on continents.

[merithyn]

Tool to calculate how fucked up you'll be if you get Covid.

http://evidence.ohdsi.org:3838/Covid19CoverPrediction/

I get:

1.2% to get hospitalized
0.3% of needing intensive care
0.1% of kicking the bucket

3.2% of hospitalization
1% of intensive care
0.8% dying

[Tamas]

I got Celed's numbers but are these meant in case you catch it, or in general?

[Sheilbh]

I got Celed's numbers but are these meant in case you catch it, or in general?

If you catch it I think.

[Admiral Yi]

I got Celed's numbers but are these meant in case you catch it, or in general?

"How fucked up you'll be if you get Covid."

[celedhring]

I got Celed's numbers but are these meant in case you catch it, or in general?

It's a tool to predict outcomes using data from previous patients.

[merithyn]

Isn't the issue that some states implemented them early and then revoked them early too?

So what's happening in the US seems to be what I thought would happen - there'd be multiple waves as it hits different bits of the country (starting with the most linked to Europe/Asia). But everyone locked down in March, regardless of whether there was much community transmission going on. So they "beat" it. Lifted lockdown and are now getting their first wave but have already suffered from lockdown which will make it more difficult to do again.

To have "waves" we had to have had a break. That didn't happen.

[Razgovory]

Tool to calculate how fucked up you'll be if you get Covid.

http://evidence.ohdsi.org:3838/Covid19CoverPrediction/

I get:

1.2% to get hospitalized
0.3% of needing intensive care
0.1% of kicking the bucket

3.2% of hospitalization
1% of intensive care
0.8% dying

I honestly Don't understand this.  When it says "history of x" does it mean if I personally have had "X" or does it mean that I have a family history of "X"?

[Maximus]

I honestly Don't understand this.  When it says "history of x" does it mean if I personally have had "X" or does it mean that I have a family history of "X"?

I wasn't sure either, but I got the exact same values for both.

[PDH]

Mine just came back with "if you catch it, you will die"

Then there was a listing of funeral homes in my area.

[merithyn]

Mine just came back with "if you catch it, you will die"

Then there was a listing of funeral homes in my area.

[Iormlund]

Madrid has started a project to determine the extent of infection in care homes in the region. So far 70% of care home patients and 30% of staff have tested positive in either PCR or antibody tests.

[Admiral Yi]

Madrid has started a project to determine the extent of infection in care homes in the region. So far 70% of care home patients and 30% of staff have tested positive in either PCR or antibody tests.

On the one hand 70% is nuts, on the other maybe not so lethal after all.

[celedhring]

Madrid has started a project to determine the extent of infection in care homes in the region. So far 70% of care home patients and 30% of staff have tested positive in either PCR or antibody tests.

I find those numbers extremely weird for several reasons. First, such a huge % compared to the general population (I think in Madrid it was 11%?), and the discrepancy between patients and staff.