Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[celedhring]

We've entered an new era for medicine, a UK NHS database of all surgery during the last five weeks shows that if you get corona-virus within the 30 day period around the operation, then the mortality rate is 30%

Means very little. I presume the vast majority of surgery that has been performed in the UK these days has been for critical conditions only. So patients were already in very poor health.

[The Brain]

Oh you don't think it is. Ok then.

Is it the issue? Because I got the distinct impression that you aren't cool with loosening restrictions even if the looser restrictions don't result in an overwhelmed medical system.

My measure of success is lives saved, not length of lockdown time or how much capacity our medical system is at.

Are you prepared to put a price tag on human lives?

I work in health care so guess my answer.

Good. I ask because I have encountered people who are not prepared to do it, and are therefore obviously completely unfit to make decisions about safety in society.

[mongers]

We've entered an new era for medicine, a UK NHS database of all surgery during the last five weeks shows that if you get corona-virus within the 30 day period around the operation, then the mortality rate is 30%

Means very little. I presume the vast majority of surgery that has been performed in the UK these days has been for critical conditions only. So patients were already in very poor health.

That's not what he said; you've no evidence for your assumption.

I could turn that around and conjecture that the infirm and elderly are 'avoid' other operations and relatively more otherwise health people are willing to go through with the procedure. An assertion for which I have no evidence, and yours?

[celedhring]

We've entered an new era for medicine, a UK NHS database of all surgery during the last five weeks shows that if you get corona-virus within the 30 day period around the operation, then the mortality rate is 30%

Means very little. I presume the vast majority of surgery that has been performed in the UK these days has been for critical conditions only. So patients were already in very poor health.

That's not what he said; you've no evidence for your assumption.

I could turn that around and conjecture that the infirm and elderly are 'avoid' other operations and relatively more otherwise health people are willing to go through with the procedure. An assertion for which I have no evidence, and yours?

My evidence is that this his how has been done in Spain, with all non-critical surgery postponed until after the epidemic to avoid exposure and reduce hospital loads (plus repurposing some post-operative care units as ICUs). I presume the UK has done similar.

[Tamas]

Seems like in the spirit of VE and imminent lockdown end, 2-3 households of our street have been having a street party. Tables and chairs are out on the sidewalk and they mingle and chat.

[grumbler]

We've entered an new era for medicine, a UK NHS database of all surgery during the last five weeks shows that if you get corona-virus within the 30 day period around the operation, then the mortality rate is 30%

Means very little. I presume the vast majority of surgery that has been performed in the UK these days has been for critical conditions only. So patients were already in very poor health.

That's not what he said; you've no evidence for your assumption.

I could turn that around and conjecture that the infirm and elderly are 'avoid' other operations and relatively more otherwise health people are willing to go through with the procedure. An assertion for which I have no evidence, and yours?

Are you trying to make a point, or just to point out that some British cardiothoracic surgeon noted a high mortality rate for coronavirus if contracted soon after surgery (which is hardly surprising)? 

[Tamas]

Seems like in the spirit of VE and imminent lockdown end, 2-3 households of our street have been having a street party. Tables and chairs are out on the sidewalk and they mingle and chat.

And blasting 1940s era music.

Of course they also loudly clap on Thursday nights, which must compensate for shitting on the NHS efforts by not observing the lockdown.

[Syt]

Seems like in the spirit of VE and imminent lockdown end, 2-3 households of our street have been having a street party. Tables and chairs are out on the sidewalk and they mingle and chat.

And blasting 1940s era music.

Of course they also loudly clap on Thursday nights, which must compensate for shitting on the NHS efforts by not observing the lockdown.

They're following the government's advice (check the Brexit thread ).

[crazy canuck]

And that is the issue, isn't it

It started out that way, but I don't think it is.

The medical system is below capacity in most of europe and north america and yet the locations with higher rates of infection are being cast in a negative light. For example, Sweden versus its neighbors.

If you look at slide 20 of the BC PHO's presentation given May 4th, it shows that our modelling is that if we go to 80% of normal our cases of hospitalization is going to go through the roof.  We are aiming at slowing going to 60%.  The modelling shows we will not overwhelm our hospitals and we can restart elective procedures at that level.

https://news.gov.bc.ca/files/Covid-19_May4_PPP.pdf

[DGuller]

We've entered an new era for medicine, a UK NHS database of all surgery during the last five weeks shows that if you get corona-virus within the 30 day period around the operation, then the mortality rate is 30%

source: Dr Joel Dunning, cardiothoracic surgeon at the James Cook university hospital UK.

Means nothing without context.  This should've been stated as a multiplier of expected mortality.

[The Larch]

Wohoo! We go to Phase 1! 

Sorry cel, you get to stay in Phase 0 for at least another week. 

Situation in Spain starting next monday:

[Josephus]

not sure this was posted here. A brief in Lancet, stating that lockdown was worth the results

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31035-7/fulltext?

Hmmm have you read it?

Funny what a difference a word makes. Meant to say "not" worth the results.
Maybe the real reason I'm no longer an editor has nothing to do with COVID

[celedhring]

Wohoo! We go to Phase 1! 

Sorry cel, you get to stay in Phase 0 for at least another week. 

Situation in Spain starting next monday:

My region was very close to meet the thresold, according to our regional government. We were actually the closest of the Catalan regions to be left out... So hopefully next week.

One of the things I most look forward to is the reopening of libraries so I can work at some other place besides circling between my kitchen table, my study table, and my sofa.

[Zoupa]

Oh you don't think it is. Ok then.

Is it the issue? Because I got the distinct impression that you aren't cool with loosening restrictions even if the looser restrictions don't result in an overwhelmed medical system.

My measure of success is lives saved, not length of lockdown time or how much capacity our medical system is at.

Are you prepared to put a price tag on human lives?

I work in health care so guess my answer.

Good. I ask because I have encountered people who are not prepared to do it, and are therefore obviously completely unfit to make decisions about safety in society.

Ok? I'm not sure what you're saying.

My price tag for a human life is ∞.

Obviously I'm not some star eyed child, I know that's impossible. But you have to rage against the dying of the light.

[The Brain]

Oh you don't think it is. Ok then.

Is it the issue? Because I got the distinct impression that you aren't cool with loosening restrictions even if the looser restrictions don't result in an overwhelmed medical system.

My measure of success is lives saved, not length of lockdown time or how much capacity our medical system is at.

Are you prepared to put a price tag on human lives?

I work in health care so guess my answer.

Good. I ask because I have encountered people who are not prepared to do it, and are therefore obviously completely unfit to make decisions about safety in society.

Ok? I'm not sure what you're saying.

My price tag for a human life is ∞.

Obviously I'm not some star eyed child, I know that's impossible. But you have to rage against the dying of the light.

Then you are completely unfit to make decisions about safety.