Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[alfred russel]

So why are you giving Tim grief for being a week or two premature?

Tim overhypes everything. I've pointed that out to him in the thread, I pointed it out to him at the time, and now I'm pointing it out when there is numerical proof.

To the larger point, 6-8 weeks ago, this is how I see what I was arguing, and how I was received:

-the situation isn't going to be as bad as a lot of you guys are predicting,
-the measures being taken are going to backfire as they need to last for an extended period and people will revolt if they aren't as accommodating as possible,
-this is going to be a primarily urban problem and the "rules" should reflect that.

Right now, on every single of those points I'm being validated.

1- it's going to be bad. You're at 70 k, estimates are at 3k daily deaths in a month. I cannot possibly see how this is "not bad"
2- backfiring how? the couple of hundred mouthbreathers? or the 82% of americans that think the lockdown should continue?
3- of course it urban now, that's where the people are you moron. Do you want NY hikers coming to Georgia?

You're not being validated on any of those points. You're just dense.

1 - You blow at reading comprehension/honesty. I didn't say this will be "not bad", as said it would not be "as bad" as Tim predicted.  If Tim says deaths at a point in time will be a minimum of 100k, and I say that they will be less, then I am right if they are less than 100k.
2 - you are ignoring all the posts in this thread about recent crowds? Here is an article:

Apple Data Shows Shelter-In-Place Is Ending, Whether Governments Want It To Or Not

ye-bye shelter-in-place. Hello re-opening.

Apple's Mobility Trends report shows that traffic in the US and other countries like Germany has pretty much doubled in the past three weeks. It had been down up to 72%. And location data provider Foursquare says that gas and fast food visits are back to pre-COVID-19 levels in the American Midwest.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/05/01/apple-data-shows-shelter-in-place-is-ending-whether-governments-want-it-to-or-not/#477e487d6fb5

3 - dense urban populations are suffering disproportionate losses. The handful of rural exceptions usually have pre lockdown community gatherings with mass spread that can easily be stopped without serious disruptions to life.

I don't care if a NY hikers want to come to Georgia.

[merithyn]

Well, it certainly looks like the crazy fucking right is moving the discussion towards re-opening regardless of what the science says, and why not?

They've pretty much destroyed the basic idea that science actually matters in the last couple of decades. Scientists are known liars. They lied about creation and evolution, they lied about climate change, they are almost certainly lying about this as well.

Berkut, what does the science say?

You can read in this thread that a number of European countries are opening up right now...in those locations has the crazy fucking right also destroyed the confidence in science with attacks on evolution and climate change?

The countries that were a month ahead of the US on this virus? Those countries?

[alfred russel]

The countries that were a month ahead of the US on this virus? Those countries?

Most major european countries have a worse death rate than we do - germany being the most notable exception.

[DGuller]

The countries that were a month ahead of the US on this virus? Those countries?

Most major european countries have a worse death rate than we do - germany being the most notable exception.

Death rate is lagging, though.  It looks worse with time, as the number of new infected decreases, but those lingering on ventilators finally succumb.  Even with perfectly consistent and reliable data collection, and equally available tests, dividing deaths by cases is still misleading because it conflates the development of existing cases with emergence of new ones.

[alfred russel]

The countries that were a month ahead of the US on this virus? Those countries?

Most major european countries have a worse death rate than we do - germany being the most notable exception.

Death rate is lagging, though.  It looks worse with time, as the number of new infected decreases, but those lingering on ventilators finally succumb.  Even with perfectly consistent and reliable data collection, and equally available tests, dividing deaths by cases is still misleading because it conflates the development of existing cases with emergence of new ones.

Completely ignore the number of cases and just compare deaths per capita (sorry I was imprecise, that is the metric I was trying to refer to).

[DGuller]

The countries that were a month ahead of the US on this virus? Those countries?

Most major european countries have a worse death rate than we do - germany being the most notable exception.

Death rate is lagging, though.  It looks worse with time, as the number of new infected decreases, but those lingering on ventilators finally succumb.  Even with perfectly consistent and reliable data collection, and equally available tests, dividing deaths by cases is still misleading because it conflates the development of existing cases with emergence of new ones.

Completely ignore the number of cases and just compare deaths per capita (sorry I was imprecise, that is the metric I was trying to refer to).

I see.  Yes, you are correct that Europe has been ravaged much more severely than US has been so far, as of today.  However, are we comparing like for like? 

Let's assume that Europe is one month ahead of the US, as stated by Meri.  One month ago, Spain and Italy death toll was 40% of what it is today.  France and Germany death toll was about 15% of what it is today.  The death rate for US today is 40% of Europe today, so even with lockdown extended for the next month US will may well catch the worst European countries at the same point in time of the pandemic progression.  Europe wasn't opening up a month ago, so if they're stupid, they're still not as stupid as we are.

[Razgovory]

This is disturbing:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/must-watch-tearful-nurse-blows-whistle-new-york-hospitals-murdering-covid-patients-complete-medical-mismanagement/

Guy who made that website lives fairly close to where I live.  He was involved in a plot to pay women to make accusations against Robert Mueller.

[Sheilbh]

Tim overhypes everything. I've pointed that out to him in the thread, I pointed it out to him at the time, and now I'm pointing it out when there is numerical proof.

To the larger point, 6-8 weeks ago, this is how I see what I was arguing, and how I was received:

-the situation isn't going to be as bad as a lot of you guys are predicting,
-the measures being taken are going to backfire as they need to last for an extended period and people will revolt if they aren't as accommodating as possible,
-this is going to be a primarily urban problem and the "rules" should reflect that.

Right now, on every single of those points I'm being validated.

On these points - I don't disagree about the rules, but the US seems to be the only country where people are revolting and it's the only country with insanely polarised politics where one party is deeply uncomfortable with these measures (because the President can't take credit). I think you're right and we have to meet people where they are - but based on this where America is, is that your politics is going to kill people.

On the urban issue I don't agree. The big outbreaks in the US are in dense workplaces that are (or have been deemed) essential. The centres of outbreaks at the minute are meatpacking, prisons and care homes. Those are not all particularly urban environments, and they'll spread from there (at, perhaps, a lower rate). My view has always been the coasts would be hit first and hardest they'd probably peak and start declining but you'd then start to get peaks in non-coastal areas which I think is what's happening. The weird thing is that the rush to lift lockdown has happened fastest in the areas that are - at best - peaking now, like the deep south and the midwest - coincidentally areas with, generally, Republican Governors or Legislatures. There may be a decline in cases and deaths, reflecting lockdown but it feels like re-opening now is going to lead to a second higher peak - and this isn't even a second wave this is just not letting the first wave ebb out.

All else being equal I think it makes sense that urban areas are worse hit - though I wonder if that's density or the various reports about how pollution levels seem to be a big risk factor - but the exception to that is certain "closed" work environments. We've seen it in the UK, and in other European countries, in care homes - luckily the outbreaks in prisons ahve been relatively minor.

[Razgovory]

Dorsey, I swear to God that I die from this plague I will come back as a dog and bite you on the ass.  Multiple times.  Your life will be nothing but a conga line of reincarnated, ass-biting dogs.

[alfred russel]

I see.  Yes, you are correct that Europe has been ravaged much more severely than US has been so far, as of today.  However, are we comparing like for like? 

Let's assume that Europe is one month ahead of the US, as stated by Meri.  One month ago, Spain and Italy death toll was 40% of what it is today.  France and Germany death toll was about 15% of what it is today.  The death rate for US today is 40% of Europe today, so even with lockdown extended for the next month US will may well catch the worst European countries at the same point in time of the pandemic progression.  Europe wasn't opening up a month ago, so if they're stupid, they're still not as stupid as we are.

When Meri wrote "The countries that were a month ahead of the US on this virus?" I thought she was referring to their response, not that they got it a month sooner than we did.

[alfred russel]

On these points - I don't disagree about the rules, but the US seems to be the only country where people are revolting and it's the only country with insanely polarised politics where one party is deeply uncomfortable with these measures (because the President can't take credit). I think you're right and we have to meet people where they are - but based on this where America is, is that your politics is going to kill people.

On the urban issue I don't agree. The big outbreaks in the US are in dense workplaces that are (or have been deemed) essential. The centres of outbreaks at the minute are meatpacking, prisons and care homes. Those are not all particularly urban environments, and they'll spread from there (at, perhaps, a lower rate). My view has always been the coasts would be hit first and hardest they'd probably peak and start declining but you'd then start to get peaks in non-coastal areas which I think is what's happening. The weird thing is that the rush to lift lockdown has happened fastest in the areas that are - at best - peaking now, like the deep south and the midwest - coincidentally areas with, generally, Republican Governors or Legislatures. There may be a decline in cases and deaths, reflecting lockdown but it feels like re-opening now is going to lead to a second higher peak - and this isn't even a second wave this is just not letting the first wave ebb out.

All else being equal I think it makes sense that urban areas are worse hit - though I wonder if that's density or the various reports about how pollution levels seem to be a big risk factor - but the exception to that is certain "closed" work environments. We've seen it in the UK, and in other European countries, in care homes - luckily the outbreaks in prisons ahve been relatively minor.

Sheilbh, it is so hard to figure out where the cases are coming from without more testing. For example, in the US Navy, there have been just over 2,000 cases, but over 900 are from the one carrier with an outbreak and everyone got tested. Most positive tests subjects on the carrier were asymptomatic. I wonder if the actual number of cases in the US Navy isn't far higher than 2,000, but with all the asymptomatics you need a big population like a carrier to notice a major problem and get everyone tested. That would also apply to places like prisons and meat packing plants. Old age homes are a bit different: people will notice that people there are dying or falling seriously ill.

New York and New Jersey no longer account for half of US deaths, but they are still ~48%.

[DGuller]

To rebut myself, I don't think US is a month behind Europe on the virus progression.  It's probably two weeks behind Italy, one week behind France, Germany, and Spain, and on par with UK.

[Eddie Teach]

Dorsey, I swear to God that I die from this plague I will come back as a dog and bite you on the ass.  Multiple times.  Your life will be nothing but a conga line of reincarnated, ass-biting dogs.

I don't think you get to choose how you're reincarnated. 

[Admiral Yi]

Withholding is being taken out of my unemployment bonus, so it looks like this is going to be taxable, which wasn't mentioned a whole bunch.

[fromtia]

I told FL to withhold taxes on my UI when I filed. They did helpfully make it clear that it was taxable though. Filed on 3/22 yet to receive a cent. I'm "processed, pending" and have been this whole time according to Rick Scotts $77 million dollar website.