Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Barrister]

Napkin math time.

11,000 deaths in NYC. 8.3 million population at 21% = 1.75 million infected. 0.6% lethality.

Except that NYC has a significantly higher death right now - more than what can be explained by confirmed covid-19 cases.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

[Zoupa]

Sorry, but the truth is that I know more about this than you do.

We can still talk about this subject if you wish. It's just that your opinion means literally nothing to me. Show me science, I'll change my mind.

Let me change your mind then.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

This shows the relevant curves from various strategies. The chart is plotting expected critical care beds, but infection rates would be similar.

Note that a "do nothing" approach leads to the disease going away the fastest, which is the opposite of what your chart shows.

The disease going away the fastest is what you care about. You and all the haircut demanding Karens out there.

What scientists and other normal, empathy-having humans care about is the area under the curve, which depicts the number of deaths.

[The Brain]

Napkin math time.

11,000 deaths in NYC. 8.3 million population at 21% = 1.75 million infected. 0.6% lethality.

Except that NYC has a significantly higher death right now - more than what can be explained by confirmed covid-19 cases.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

Sweden and Belgium seem to be actually reporting Covid-19 deaths.

[Barrister]

Chilling article on the situation in Ecuador.

Officially only 500-some confirmed Covid deaths, with 900-some suspected, but Guayaquil has had 6700 deaths in the first two weeks of April, when normally they'd expect around 1,000.  The system has broken down for dealing with the dead bodies, leading to bodies sitting at home for several days - rotting.

https://undark.org/2020/04/22/guayaquil-covid-19-ecuador-death-bodies/

[Liep]

The weather is nice and that apparently means the lockdown is lifted.

[Barrister]

Saskatchewan announced a 5 stage graduated re-opening plan.  Sask only had 326 total cases (4 deaths), and I understand their active cases are declining, so they can probably talk about re-opening.  We're not there yet in Alberta.  Manitoba set to announce a plan next week.

Stage 1 re-opens medical services, boating/fishing, camping and golfing over the course of May.
Stage 2 is retail and personal care services
Stage 3 would allow restaurants, child care, gyms, bars, and increase limits on gatherings up to 15.  No timeline given.
Stage 4 would re-open recreation and entertainment facilities, raise limit to 30.
Stage 5 - more vague, maybe further increase gathering limits.

They further explain that restrictions on travel, large gatherings, and long-term care facilities will be in place for the foreseeable future.

I can kind of see it.  They're trying to balance what would be safest and what is most urgent to re-open.

[alfred russel]

Sorry, but the truth is that I know more about this than you do.

We can still talk about this subject if you wish. It's just that your opinion means literally nothing to me. Show me science, I'll change my mind.

Let me change your mind then.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

This shows the relevant curves from various strategies. The chart is plotting expected critical care beds, but infection rates would be similar.

Note that a "do nothing" approach leads to the disease going away the fastest, which is the opposite of what your chart shows.

The disease going away the fastest is what you care about. You and all the haircut demanding Karens out there.

What scientists and other normal, empathy-having humans care about is the area under the curve, which depicts the number of deaths.

#1 Zoupa posts a chart of cases over time with two different approaches
#2 I point out the chart isn't how things work
#3 Zoupa responds that he knows more than me, but could still be persuaded by science
#4 I post the information from actual scientists backing up what I say
#5 We get the personal attack above, which isn't accurate in any event.

Zoupa, the scientific curves I posted are standard epi curves. The area under the curves is going to be about the same depending on the approach taken. The area under the curve is the cumulative number of cases (or in the precise case of the curves I posted the number of critical care beds needed). They are not the number of deaths.

[Zoupa]

Dorsey, the area under the curve is definitely not the same, sorry.

Dorsey,  there is a direct correlation between number of ICU beds occupied and deaths.

Dorsey, the whole point of the most restrictive approach is to spread out the cases so as not to overwhelm the system. See: Italy.

Dorsey, this has been pointed out and explained a gazillion times, in the media, in scientific papers, on this forum and in this very thread.

What, exactly, do you not understand?

[Barrister]

Dorsey, the area under the curve is definitely not the same, sorry.

Zoupa, agree with you about everything else, but my understanding was that absent a treatment or vaccine, the area under the curves (assuming it's a curve of infected, not deceased) will be the same.  The point though was to avoid having them all at once and overload the system.

[The Larch]

Dorsey, the area under the curve is definitely not the same, sorry.

Zoupa, agree with you about everything else, but my understanding was that absent a treatment or vaccine, the area under the curves (assuming it's a curve of infected, not deceased) will be the same.  The point though was to avoid having them all at once and overload the system.

IIRC it's infected people, which doesn't necessarily mean deceased, of course. The point of the curves is that the higher they go there's a risk of ICU capacity being overtaken, leaving some infected cases without ICU to treat them. The "flatten the curve" (ie, the lowering of the curve in the graph) term means that the more the cases are spread out over time due to restrictive measures, the better, as that way ICU capacity won't be overtaken.

[Zoupa]

Dorsey, the area under the curve is definitely not the same, sorry.

Zoupa, agree with you about everything else, but my understanding was that absent a treatment or vaccine, the area under the curves (assuming it's a curve of infected, not deceased) will be the same.  The point though was to avoid having them all at once and overload the system.

The area under the curve will be the same at t=∞

The area under the curve in a relevant time frame, say since first case appeared until average temp > 15 celsius, is not the same. At all.

[The Minsky Moment]

Note that a "do nothing" approach leads to the disease going away the fastest, which is the opposite of what your chart shows.

Not really accurate.

The best approach is to kill every human being on the planet. Then the virus will be stopped in its tracks immediately.

[Barrister]

Dorsey, the area under the curve is definitely not the same, sorry.

Zoupa, agree with you about everything else, but my understanding was that absent a treatment or vaccine, the area under the curves (assuming it's a curve of infected, not deceased) will be the same.  The point though was to avoid having them all at once and overload the system.

The area under the curve will be the same at t=∞

The area under the curve in a relevant time frame, say since first case appeared until average temp > 15 celsius, is not the same. At all.

[katmai]

Dorsey, the area under the curve is definitely not the same, sorry.

Dorsey,  there is a direct correlation between number of ICU beds occupied and deaths.

Dorsey, the whole point of the most restrictive approach is to spread out the cases so as not to overwhelm the system. See: Italy.

Dorsey, this has been pointed out and explained a gazillion times, in the media, in scientific papers, on this forum and in this very thread.

What, exactly, do you not understand?

like I said a dumbass

[Malthus]

Well, the US President has just mentioned a possible cure - injecting disinfectants. The problem is almost solved! 😀

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-suggests-injection-disinfectant-beat-coronavirus-clean-lungs-n1191216