Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Maladict]

The suggestion is that rather than, say, 100,000 deaths in the USA, the country would have 103,000 deaths and the youth would continue to receive an education. If that is what would happen then it would almost certainly be an acceptable tradeoff.

I'm fairly sure that suspending education for 1-2 years, in a country of 330m people, would have far worse consequences than 3000 deaths.......but modelling those consequences would be exceedingly difficult.

Yeah, definitely. Not sure why people get so upset about tradeoffs against human lives. I mean it's not pleasant to think about but it happens all the time.

[Legbiter]

China suddenly updated and increased it's fatality numbers for Wuhan by 1290. And Japan is going to spend 2 billion dollars to shift production out of China.

[Monoriu]

I don't know what's wrong with Singapore.  They now have almost 700 cases in a single day. 

[crazy canuck]

Dr Oz on Hannity: "Schools are a very appetizing opportunity. I just saw a nice piece in The Lancet arguing the opening of schools may only cost us 2 to 3%, in terms of total mortality. Any, you know, any life is a life lost, but that might be a trade-off some folks would consider."

Yeah sure if the Lancet article talking about schools being open would only increase the total case fatality rate in a country by 2-3% then that's maybe an acceptable tradeoff. That's a conscious choice that's been made here as well, schools are on shortened, staggered schedules but not closed. Secondary schools and universities are closed completely though. Kids don't really catch it that much, much less have complications from it. Probably the only good thing one can say about this virus. Just keep them away from grandparents.

Only about a couple million school kids dead in the US alone.  The conservative circle jerk of death just keeps getting worse.  Fuck you guys are morons.

How are you arriving at a couple million school kids dead?

Assuming most everyone gets infected because economic growth is most important goal of human existence.  Hard to know what the actual fatality rate is given the numbers vary so much around the world but assume it's not the high rates seen in some areas and take the estimates of about 3% with restrictions in place and increase that by the asserted Lancet figure of an additional 2%.

Less kids may die because they may be less susceptible but that is not yet known with certainty.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, definitely. Not sure why people get so upset about tradeoffs against human lives. I mean it's not pleasant to think about but it happens all the time.

I think schools reopening - especially primary schools - will be one of the first things that happens, based on what's going on in Europe. Which makes sense - it has a relatively low impact on the transmission of the disease and a very high social impact on people's lives (not least the kids), plus it's something you can change to reduce the transmission impact even more - staggered classes, no shared lunch or break time etc.

It's more difficult with high schools. But I'd be fairly surprised if we didn't see schools reopening this school year.

[DGuller]

Dr Oz on Hannity: "Schools are a very appetizing opportunity. I just saw a nice piece in The Lancet arguing the opening of schools may only cost us 2 to 3%, in terms of total mortality. Any, you know, any life is a life lost, but that might be a trade-off some folks would consider."

Yeah sure if the Lancet article talking about schools being open would only increase the total case fatality rate in a country by 2-3% then that's maybe an acceptable tradeoff. That's a conscious choice that's been made here as well, schools are on shortened, staggered schedules but not closed. Secondary schools and universities are closed completely though. Kids don't really catch it that much, much less have complications from it. Probably the only good thing one can say about this virus. Just keep them away from grandparents.

Only about a couple million school kids dead in the US alone.  The conservative circle jerk of death just keeps getting worse.  Fuck you guys are morons.

How are you arriving at a couple million school kids dead?

Assuming most everyone gets infected because economic growth is most important goal of human existence.  Hard to know what the actual fatality rate is given the numbers vary so much around the world but assume it's not the high rates seen in some areas and take the estimates of about 3% with restrictions in place and increase that by the asserted Lancet figure of an additional 2%.

Less kids may die because they may be less susceptible but that is not yet known with certainty.

I don't think your interpretation makes any sense.  Assuming that he meant that the disease would become 67% more fatal per case because of children going back to school is the most absurd misinterpretation of that figure I have read anywhere.

[mongers]

I don't know what's wrong with Singapore.  They now have almost 700 cases in a single day.

Their thorough testing programme has now been fully extended to the migrant, mainly construction workers isolated in those camps/dormitories. That's my guess.

[Agelastus]

Dr Oz on Hannity: "Schools are a very appetizing opportunity. I just saw a nice piece in The Lancet arguing the opening of schools may only cost us 2 to 3%, in terms of total mortality. Any, you know, any life is a life lost, but that might be a trade-off some folks would consider."

Yeah sure if the Lancet article talking about schools being open would only increase the total case fatality rate in a country by 2-3% then that's maybe an acceptable tradeoff. That's a conscious choice that's been made here as well, schools are on shortened, staggered schedules but not closed. Secondary schools and universities are closed completely though. Kids don't really catch it that much, much less have complications from it. Probably the only good thing one can say about this virus. Just keep them away from grandparents.

Only about a couple million school kids dead in the US alone.  The conservative circle jerk of death just keeps getting worse.  Fuck you guys are morons.

How are you arriving at a couple million school kids dead?

Assuming most everyone gets infected because economic growth is most important goal of human existence.  Hard to know what the actual fatality rate is given the numbers vary so much around the world but assume it's not the high rates seen in some areas and take the estimates of about 3% with restrictions in place and increase that by the asserted Lancet figure of an additional 2%.

Less kids may die because they may be less susceptible but that is not yet known with certainty.

330 million Americans.

Assume everyone gets it, and that the death rate is the unlikely 4%

That's 13million deaths (approximately.)

A 3% increase on that figure for deaths is 400000, spread across the populace.

Of course, not everyone will be infected. And the more asymptomatic cases that are found the lower the death rate goes.

So, if we assume the death rate is closer to the 1% suggested by countries with more intensive testing regimes, and that only 70% of the US population gets it. (Which is pretty much the worst case scenario anyway.)

So that's about 2.3 million deaths; 3% addition to that is an extra 69000, approximately.

Of course, keeping the schools open is not stopping the other lockdown measures, so 70% of the US population is not going to be infected. So the figures above are still so much bullshit. But less bullshit than the 2 million that has been uncritically quoted or suggested by yourself and another person in this thread.

[Threviel]

What's the deal with Belgium? Almost 500 dead per million, looks worse than Spain and Italy.

[Zoupa]

Belgium has a population density 15 times higher than Sweden.

[crazy canuck]

Dr Oz on Hannity: "Schools are a very appetizing opportunity. I just saw a nice piece in The Lancet arguing the opening of schools may only cost us 2 to 3%, in terms of total mortality. Any, you know, any life is a life lost, but that might be a trade-off some folks would consider."

Yeah sure if the Lancet article talking about schools being open would only increase the total case fatality rate in a country by 2-3% then that's maybe an acceptable tradeoff. That's a conscious choice that's been made here as well, schools are on shortened, staggered schedules but not closed. Secondary schools and universities are closed completely though. Kids don't really catch it that much, much less have complications from it. Probably the only good thing one can say about this virus. Just keep them away from grandparents.

Only about a couple million school kids dead in the US alone.  The conservative circle jerk of death just keeps getting worse.  Fuck you guys are morons.

How are you arriving at a couple million school kids dead?

Assuming most everyone gets infected because economic growth is most important goal of human existence.  Hard to know what the actual fatality rate is given the numbers vary so much around the world but assume it's not the high rates seen in some areas and take the estimates of about 3% with restrictions in place and increase that by the asserted Lancet figure of an additional 2%.

Less kids may die because they may be less susceptible but that is not yet known with certainty.

I don't think your interpretation makes any sense.  Assuming that he meant that the disease would become 67% more fatal per case because of children going back to school is the most absurd misinterpretation of that figure I have read anywhere.

And actually assuming a current fatality rate in the US of only 3% is too low.  It turns out it is currently 4.3 % and likely to rise as the data comes in.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/why-epidemiologists-still-dont-know-the-death-rate-for-covid-19.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[mongers]

What's the deal with Belgium? Almost 500 dead per million, looks worse than Spain and Italy.

Yes, I noticed that a few days ago and meant to post about it.

Is it by far the worst European country, around 5,000 dead for 10 million population, perhaps a combination of acting late, social deprivation and intergenerational families/customs?

[Threviel]

Belgium has a population density 15 times higher than Sweden.

Yes, and less than the Netherlands and Israel, a third denser than the UK.

Edit: And not everything needs to be compared to Sweden, that would be like comparing all cars with Rolls-Royce. Useful sometimes, but mostly not. 

[mongers]

Belgium has a population density 15 times higher than Sweden.

Yes, that might be one of key factors at work in the epidemic, so England is set to be worse than Spain or France overall perhaps because of it.

[mongers]

Belgium has a population density 15 times higher than Sweden.

Yes, and less than the Netherlands and Israel, a third denser than the UK.

Threviel, it's really best to look at the UK as three seperate counties, once you've split off Scotlands (highland!) and NI, England and Wales have density the same as the Netherlands.