Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[merithyn]

Although there's so much overspending and over-consumption in US medicine at baseline maybe we're just decreasing the amount of useless medical care. 

I dunno. I'm due for a mammogram, which will now be delayed six months to a year depending on how things shake out. That strikes me as "useful medical care", but ymmv.

[merithyn]

Have to say I do expect the unrest to be worse with poorer people.
This lockdown is altogether very different if you're working from home in your nice home with a large garden and plenty of places to take walks nearby or if you're cooped up with your family in a 1 bedroom flat with nothing to do and nought but grotty streets around you

Plus it is the hourly people that are going to get crushed by layoffs, and the people in the underground economy that won't get unemployment benefits or other types of relief. Those are going to be disproportionately working class.

For all the talk I've been hearing about protecting rural communities, I bet when it comes to Georgia the people that get disproportionately affected--both economically and in terms of health--are inner city minorities. Cities are going to be places where spread is much easier, working classes can't work from home as easily, they tend to be in poorer health more generally, and their housing forces people closer together. Plus while cases are still low in Georgia, the Atlanta mayor has said our ICU beds are at capacity already. I'm not sure the urban medical situation is going to be that much better.

I read an article last night about a small town in Georgia that was hit hard by COVID-19. The town has something like 70,000 people in it, with an average death rate of 45/year. They've already had 150 deaths this year, 67 of which were attributed to COVID directly.

All because of two funerals people attended.

[alfred russel]

I also have a diametrically different view of the police's attitude to enforcing these restrictions than Sumption, and others of you, do.  I don't think they're smirking bully boys eager to throw their weight around (incidentally the Martinus paradigm) but dedicated front line public servants who are compelled to expose themselves to the virus while they chase around irresponsible twit watchers and Easter egg shoppers.

Yi, I don't blame the police, they are generally just doing their jobs. But I find the lack of direction to be bizarre--that isn't a police problem but a political/health professional problem. For example, the CDC, among other things, is recommending not congregating in groups of 10 or more. The obvious implication is that groups of 9 or less is okay, but then all the other rules make it implied that this is not the case.

Police power is not going to fix anything. First, many places have stopped arresting people for all but the most serious crimes, and some people have been let out of prison early, because of the obvious issues with prison populations promoting the spread of disease. Throwing people in jail will make the problem worse. Second, there aren't nearly enough police officers or prison spaces to make it possible to stop widespread noncompliance, and judicial systems have stopped or slowed functioning anyway.

People need to voluntarily accept the quarantine system, and it needs to be sustainable for a month plus (or however long this is to last). You can't make the rules so difficult that people can't comply without going insane, and you can't make the rules so arbitrary they seem nonsensical. Birdwatching isn't going to lead to doom from coronavirus. Closing the public boat ramps so people can't go out on their boats won't save us either.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Joggers in particular appear as a group to be clueless about not coming close.

While I am definitely guilty of this, I'm not sure how to avoid it. Sidewalks aren't 6 feet wide. Sometimes I try going into the streets but that isn't always practical or possible.

Also, I can't imagine someone jogging past someone is going to present much risk of transmitting coronavirus. I very vaguely remember that weeks ago Dr. Fauci was asked about this scenario and said it wasn't a real risk, but I may be making that up.

What I do when someone is approaching me down the sidewalk is to step off it, either onto the grass or onto the road if it is safe, in the hope that the other person will do the same but on the other side.

It's annoying when they are jogging down the middle and don't bother even to move over. 😄

The most annoying habit here is people chatting across a path rather than both of them moving alongside a path leaving the other side free for passersby.

I have so far failed to come up with a snappy polite way of persuading them of the error of their ways.

[Sheilbh]

Slight amendation.

I think they are law enforcement officers struggling over to how to administer and enforce vague guidelines in an unprecedented situation without much clear support or guidance from their supposed political masters.

I think that's sort of fair. They could do with clearer guidance from the start, even though most of the regulations are pretty clear.

I don't think this is as much of a row as Yi and Tamas think it is. Most police forces have been sensible. From everything I've seen I can only think of 3-4 who maybe got the messaging/approach on this wrong (Devon, Derbyshire, South Wales and Warrington). Now those 3-4 are being brought into line with some guidelines at a national level.

Still not sure how the local numbers work but worst figures announced today in London - 132 deaths. It feels like it is getting worse in London but, apparently, still not breaching capacity and the Nightingale hospital opens tomorrow (3 more planned - Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgow and Harrogate).

[Sheilbh]

What I do when someone is approaching me down the sidewalk is to step off it, either onto the grass or onto the road if it is safe, in the hope that the other person will do the same but on the other side.

It's annoying when they are jogging down the middle and don't bother even to move over. 😄

Joggers cannot deviate apparently. I mean I'm on fucking crutches and I tend to be the one who gets out the way to try and keep distant from joggers/runners

[alfred russel]

I read an article last night about a small town in Georgia that was hit hard by COVID-19. The town has something like 70,000 people in it, with an average death rate of 45/year. They've already had 150 deaths this year, 67 of which were attributed to COVID directly.

All because of two funerals people attended.

That article doesn't sound plausible.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

The whole state only has 105 deaths, and no individual county is over 18.

There are 159 counties in Georgia--and all but a dozen or so have Covid-19 cases. The cat is out of the bag. It is everywhere at this point.

[Threviel]

Latest information from Swedish physicians: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTyaB41BIUk

[merithyn]

I read an article last night about a small town in Georgia that was hit hard by COVID-19. The town has something like 70,000 people in it, with an average death rate of 45/year. They've already had 150 deaths this year, 67 of which were attributed to COVID directly.

All because of two funerals people attended.

That article doesn't sound plausible.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

The whole state only has 105 deaths, and no individual county is over 18.

There are 159 counties in Georgia--and all but a dozen or so have Covid-19 cases. The cat is out of the bag. It is everywhere at this point.

Albany, GA, in Doughtery County.

https://www.walb.com/2020/03/17/watch-live-dougherty-co-address-latest-coronavirus/

EDIT: This is the article that I read last night. The previous one is from March 17, so more than a little outdated.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/days-after-a-funeral-in-a-georgia-town-coronavirus-hit-like-a-bomb/ar-BB11VJoW

[DGuller]

I read an article last night about a small town in Georgia that was hit hard by COVID-19. The town has something like 70,000 people in it, with an average death rate of 45/year. They've already had 150 deaths this year, 67 of which were attributed to COVID directly.

All because of two funerals people attended.

That article doesn't sound plausible.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

The whole state only has 105 deaths, and no individual county is over 18.

There are 159 counties in Georgia--and all but a dozen or so have Covid-19 cases. The cat is out of the bag. It is everywhere at this point.

There are a couple of more numbers that don't add up.  A town of 70,000 is not going to have 45 deaths per year, unless it's populated exclusively by grumbler's extended family.

[merithyn]

There are a couple of more numbers that don't add up.  A town of 70,000 is not going to have 45 deaths per year, unless it's populated exclusively by grumbler's extended family.

I reread the article. I was reading a bunch last night and must have gotten this one mixed up with another.

In Albany, GA, a town with a population of 90,000 people, 24 have died from COVID with more being investigated.

Still a crazy number of deaths for a town that small because one person came in from out of town to attend a funeral.

[Zanza]

About 470.000 companies (about 20 times the 2008/2009 figure) in Germany applied for short work schemes. It is unclear how many persons are affected, but my company alone has 100k+ workers named for this. This means you don't lose your job and the government pays part of your income. If you don't work at all, you will get 60% of your net income (67% with children). This goes up to 90% if you work at least part of your normal time.

[alfred russel]

Still a crazy number of deaths for a town that small because one person came in from out of town to attend a funeral.

Not really. A few months ago some dude ate a pangolin or something in Wuhan and every case in the world comes from that event.

[Barrister]

Still a crazy number of deaths for a town that small because one person came in from out of town to attend a funeral.

Not really. A few months ago some dude ate a pangolin or something in Wuhan and every case in the world comes from that event.

Yup.  This is what exponential growth looks like.

[alfred russel]

I know meri's point is that travel to a rural area can spread the disease there.

Last weekend I went to a rural area to camp and did not get out of my car except in the state park, and never entered a structure or encountered anyone. Typically we stock up on supplies in the city (because rural areas are short on options), and get gas in rural areas (because it is cheaper). With covid-19 and people sharing meri's concern, we also get our gas in the city so we have no need to ever encounter anyone.

That said: isolating rural areas from the cities is going to be impossible. Take your standard fare in a gas station. One of the elements is a snickers bar. The snickers bars are manufactured in plants in small towns across the country, while sourcing ingredients and packaging from other places in the country. They get sent to distribution centers in other small towns, and then trucks take them to the gas station in the small town in question. You have similar processes for the hundreds of SKUs in a convenience store. On top of that, you have quality control and auditors that will be visiting, health inspectors, etc. That doesn't even touch on people with family in different towns, or second homes, commuters, etc.

Even if we go back to a world where the disease wasn't already in rural areas, and every bird watcher and rock climber based in a city stayed in the city, the rural areas aren't going to escape this.